Passive Fernerkundung von Treibhausgasen (CO 2, CH 4 ) Stand und Perspektiven

Transcription

1 We can hardly manage what we do not measure. Passive Fernerkundung von Treibhausgasen (CO 2, CH 4 ) Stand und Perspektiven Heinrich Bovensmann Institut für Umweltphysik, Universität Bremen M. Buchwitz, M. Reuter, K. Gerilowski, S. Krautwurst, T. Krings, O. Schneising, J. Notholt, J. P. Burrows CarbonSat & CO2M, GHG CCI, CAMS, C3S GHG Teams MPI BGC, SRON, LSCE, EMPA, UoL, NASA, DLR, ESA,EC, Airbus, OHB, heinrich.bovensmann@uni bremen.de

2 GHG Data to Predict the Climate of the 21st Century and Support Assessement of GHG Reduction Measures How much is emitted where, when, and by what?? How much CO 2 is absorbed by vegetation and oceans? (Sinks)?? Are reported emissions correct??? How today's CO 2 sinks will behave in a changing climate? Will they turn into sources? How will CH 4 sources react to a changing climate? How much CH 4 is emitted from melting permafrost soil? Quantifying CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes across all scales is one of the biggest scientific challenges of our time.

3 GHGs German Space Program Heritage SCIAMACHY (DLR, NSO) on board ESA s ENVISAT 10 year data set 2002 to 2012 focus on atmospheric trace gases (Ozone, pollutants etc.), including Greenhouse Gases CO 2 and CH 4 First Greenhouse Gases from Space, part of ESA GHG CCI ECV data set (CAMS, C3S) National GHG Mission Study ( ) Passive remote sensing (spectrometry) of CO 2 and CH 4 and active remote sensing (lidar) of CH 4 to understand sources / sinks on regional and local scale ESA Earth Explorer 8 candidate CarbonSAT Common French and German cabinet decision COPERNICUS CO 2 Monitoring Mission 3 CO2M ( S7 )

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5 Atmospheric Concentrations & Emissions Emissions Wind, Area ΔConcentrations ΔC Emissions 5

6 Passive Fernerkundung von Treibhausgasverteilungen in der Atmosphäre mittels Absorptionsspektroskopie 6

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8 Annual mean atmospheric XCO 2 growth rates Record large growth rates due to year 2015/16 El Nino Buchwitz et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discussion 2018 (in review) 8

9 CO 2 emissions of Indonesian fires 2015? Heymann et al.,

10 Can remote sensing quantify anthropogic emissions? 10

11 Fernerkundung von Kraftwerksemissionen (CO 2 ) MAMAP Weisweiler Slit CO 2 - Erhöhung CO 2 Messungen über der Abluftfahne des Kohlekraftwerks Weisweiler/Niederrhein bestätigen berichtete Emissionen (jährliche Emissionen 19 MtCO 2 /yr) Weitere Kraftwerk beprobt: Jänschwalde, Schwarze Pumpe, Neurath, Belchatow etc. Gute informelle Zusammenarbeit mit Betreibern (Vattenfall, RWE etc.) Gerilowski et al 2011, Krings et al. 2011, Krings et al

12 Coal Fired Power Plant from Space Nassar et al., GRL, 2017 ECMWF 121.9, 0.50 m/s MERRA 138.4, 1.41 m/s 2.5 km buffer zone ~8 km to swath Ghent Generating Station Large enhancement due to low wind speed EPA Reported Emissions: 29.2 ktco 2 /day Estimated Emissions: 27.6 ktco 2 /day Error budget: wind speed: ±13.2 kt/day background ensemble: ±0.5 kt/day enhancement ensemble: ±2.8 kt/day 12

13 Institute of Environmental Physics and Remote Sensing IUP/IFE-UB Department 1 Physics/Electrical Engineering Methane (CH 4 ) 13

14 CH 4 increased again since 2006 after a decade of nearly stable concentrations? Origin of increase since 2006: Wetland emissions? Leakages from oil/gas/coal production? Weaker OH sink? Less CH4 from biomass burning? To understand why CH 4 is increasing, all natural and anthropogenic sources as well as sinks must be quantified separately 14

15 Atmospheric methane and its sources Natural gas Coal mining Wetlands Rice Ruminants Wastewater Energy Landfills Termites Hydrates 15 SCIAMACHY XCH average: Buchwitz et al ACP

16 Methane emissions from SCIAMACHY & GOSAT Buchwitz et al., ACP,

17 Oil Fields: Bakersfield Kern River significantly enhanced CH 4 detected over oil fields in California in summer 2014 from airborne data emissions were estimated to ~ 30kT CH 4 /yr at the time of overpass Position of leakages: AVIRIS NG known MAMAP CH KERN Gerilowski et al., in preparation 17

18 XCH4 Remote Sensing over Californian Landfills Krautwurst et al., AMT,

19 Source detection example: California Main Sources: Agriculture (dairy cattle) & Oil fields Sentinel-5P Single overpass SCIAMACHY Yearly Average Disclaimer: The presented work has been performed within the framework of the Sentinel-5 Precursor Validation Team or Level 1/Level 2 Product Working Group activities. Results are based on preliminary (not fully calibrated/validated) Sentinel-5 Precursor data that are still subject to change. Acknowledgement: Sentinel-5 Precursor is a European Space Agency (ESA) mission implemented on behalf of the European Commission (EC). The TROPOMI payload is a joint development by ESA and the Netherlands Space Office (NSO). The Sentinel-5 Precursor ground-segment development has been funded by ESA and with national contributions from The Netherlands, Germany, and Belgium. 19

20 Summary Status Remote sensing of GHGs can contribute to flux quantification: CO 2 sink (biosphere) not shown CO 2 biomass burning emissions CO 2 power plants (individual and clusters) CH 4 oil/gas fields, coal mining, land fills, wetlands etc. Current results based on scientific sensors stimulate the evolution of future satellite missions and information services towards operational monitoring capabilities (CH 4 / CO: Sentinel 5P/ 5, CO 2 : Copernicus CO 2 monitoring mission (S 7)). Remote sensing of GHG using imaging sensors on aircrafts and satellites will make an important contribution to GHG source quantification and attribution and will be an important part of an integrated monitoring system. 20

21 Institute of Environmental Physics and Remote Sensing IUP/IFE-UB Department 1 Physics/Electrical Engineering Perspectives 21

22 Towards satellites contributing to GHG emission monitoring SCIAMACHY ( ) GOSAT GOSAT ( ) OCO 2 ( ) ~ TANSAT MicroCarb (2020+) 3 x 4.5x9 km 2 COPERNICUS CO 2 Monitoring Constellation (2024+) CO 2 and CH 4 CO 2 and CH 4 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 (CH 4 ) Resolution too low Accuracy moderate Sampling too sparse Accuracy moderate Sampling sparse Accuracy good Sampling sparse Accuracy good Imager : Sampling dense Accuracy good CH 4 state of the art: Sentinel-5P, but 7 km only 22

23 High Priority Copernicus Expansion Mission CO2M End to end System requirements to monitor CO 2 Accuracy ton/year 1. Detection of emitting hot spots such as megacities or power plants. 2. Monitoring the hot spot emissions to assess emission reductions/increase of the activities. 3. Assessing emission changes against local reduction targets to monitor impacts of the NDCs. 4. Assessing the national emissions and changes in 5 year time steps to estimate the global stock take. km & daily scales Space & Time 23

24 CO 2 monitoring mission concept, status & planning CO 2 & NO 2 : push broom imaging spectrometer (as heritage missions), optionally supported by a aerosol & clouds polarimeter XCO2 precision: ppm Systematic bias < 0.5 ppm Spatial resolution 4 km2 Satellite constellation: constellation of ~ 3 satellites with about 250 km swath to achieve 2 3 days revisit 40 poleward, 11:30 equator crossing Two parallel Phase A/B1 system studies: started to mid 19 Support Studies ongoing (ESA, EC) Start implementation: Q Launch target in Push-broom imaging spectrometer concept 24

25 CO 2 Monitoring Colocated NO2 Auxiliary requirements (NO 2 ): NO 2 plumes enhance CO 2 plume: location, height & identification provides best matching 3D wind field more & better CO 2 emission estimates NO 2 observes in 30% cloud fraction Sentinel-5P India : ocations of power plants Credits: WUR, KNMI Credits: EMPA End-to-End Simulation confirms need for plume identification to improve emission estimates substantially 25

26 Atmospheric Greenhouse Observing System Components Altitude (km) In-situ & Remote Sensing Stratosphere Free Troposphere Boundary Layer ITMS, DWD Offenbach Januar 2018 Slide 26 AirCore (0-35km) since 2011 Aircraft (0-20km) since 1993 Tower (~500m) since 1993 ICOS Surface in-situ IAGOS since 1959 Satellite (column) since 2002 Aircraft (column) since 2007 FTIR (column) since 2004 SCIA, OCO, GOSAT S5-P/5 CO2M MAMAP /2D TCCON COCON

27 Initiative Integriertes THGs Monitoring System ITMS Hauptziel: Unabhängige Verifikation von Emissionen + UFZ, FZJ, TU Dresden, Hochschule Weihenstephan 27

28 COMET: Simultaneous CO 2 and CH 4 using passive and active remote sensing as well as in situ techniques First measurement of CO 2 from coal fired power plant (Jänschwalde, DE,~25 Mt CO2/yr) by co located airborne passive (MAMAP) and active (CHARM F) remote sensing Similar data (colocated active, passive, in situ) collected for CH 4 from coal mine ventilation shafts Unique data set to test activepassive synergies Quicklook result: MAMAP on the Cessna aircraft (IUP, University of Bremen) Quicklook result: CHARM-F on the HALO aircraft (DLR IPA) 28

29 Outlook GHG Sentinel 5P will boost CH 4 emission monitoring of large emitters (large oil/gas/coal production areas) COPERNICUS CO2 Monitoring Mission (CO2M / S7) will make the step to support CO2 emission monitoring Preparing for GHG information services is needed => Integriertes Treibhausgas Monitoring System ITMS 2D airborne GHG imaging systems under development (CH4: MAMAP2D, CO2: ACADIA) Active passive synergies the COMET experience GHG from GEO AHRRENIUS EE10 proposal GHG sensors for small or micro satellites? Science support needed! 29

30 Thank you 30