Sustainable Water Resources Planning and Management Under Climate Change

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1 Sustainable Water Resources Planning and Management Under Climate Change

2 Elpida Kolokytha Satoru Oishi Editors Sustainable Water Resources Planning and Management Under Climate Change 123

3 Editors Elpida Kolokytha School of Civil Engineering Division of Hydraulics and Environmental Engineering Aristotle University of Thessaloniki Thessaloniki, Greece Satoru Oishi The Research Center for Urban Safety and Security Kobe University Kobe, Hyogo, Japan Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatics Engineering Florida Atlantic University Boca Raton, FL, USA ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / Library of Congress Control Number: Springer Science+Business Media Singapore 2017 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. Printed on acid-free paper This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer Science+Business Media Singapore Pte Ltd.

4 Preface This book, entitled Sustainable Water Resources Planning and Management Under Climate Change, deals with a fundamental component of engineering design and practice under changing climate. Due to climate change and other sources of nonstationarity, the traditional approaches that are currently available for understanding, modeling and evaluating hydrological processes are not adequate. Complexity creates non-linear behavior in the entire system, which needs new knowledge to be addressed. Mitigation and adaptation policies are important to tackle climate change, extreme events, and water scarcity. This book contains chapters by distinguished scientists from different regions of the world covering topics that range from hydrologic modeling to management and policy responses to climate variability and change with primary emphasis on water resources management. The authors also provide insight into regional problems supported by results from several reallife case studies. The book also touches upon the issue of climate variability, applications and limitations of climate change models, and scenarios related to precipitation projections that ultimately relate to the future availability of water resources. It also includes discussions on policy options to deal with climate change through interesting study results and examples of applications of theory from almost all over the world. This work is respectfully dedicated to the late Professor Toshiharu Kojiri by the authors who were his friends, research collaborators, or students. Professor Kojiri was born in Kyoto, Japan. He graduated from the Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, and he received the Doctor of Engineering degree from Kyoto University based on his thesis work entitled Systems approach on quantity and quality control of water by using multi-dams. Dr. Kojiri started his academic career as a research associate in the Department of Civil Engineering, Kyoto University. He later became an associate professor in the Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI) of Kyoto University. After serving some time in Kyoto University he moved to Gifu University as associate professor and soon became full professor there. He returned to the DPRI, Kyoto University, as a full professor in Professor Kojiri took the role of chair of the Committee on Water Resources Management in the International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research v

5 vi Preface (IAHR). He and his co-authors published several original and seminal articles on water resources management and hydrological modeling that are referenced in a number of research publications and studies throughout the world. His outstanding contributions in advanced research focus on issues related to impacts of climate change on the hydrologic cycle and water resources management. Unfortunately, the water resources community lost a well-accomplished researcher and leader in November of 2011, when Professor Kojiri passed away after a long battle with cancer. Professor Kojiri had always advocated progress in water sciences and development of new methods and their practical applications for the benefit of society. We believe that this book, as a small token of respect towards his outstanding work and contributions to water resources engineering, will serve to honor his research, and promote and motivate many readers around the world to strive for a better understanding of water resources management under changing climate. We hope the book will provide significant help to practicing engineers, academic researchers, engineering professionals, and students from different regions of the world. We expect to receive objective feedback from readers of the book. We also strongly believe that the book will in its own way promote and fulfill the late Professor Kojiri s wishes for the water resources community to continue the efforts of developing new approaches, handling and solving challenging multidisciplinary water resources problems, and lay a path for water resources management under a future uncertain climate. Thessaloniki, Greece Kobe, Japan Boca Raton, FL, USA Elpida Kolokytha Satoru Oishi

6 Contents Part I Hydrological Aspects of Climate Change 1 Climate Variability and Changes in Precipitation Extremes and Characteristics Hydrologic Extremes Under Climate Change: Non-stationarity and Uncertainty Arpita Mondal and P.P. Mujumdar 3 Impact of Climatic and Land Use Changes on River Flows in the Southern Alps Roberto Ranzi, Paolo Caronna, and Massimo Tomirotti Part II Decision Making for Managing Water Resources Systems Under Climate Change 4 Ranking of Global Climate Models for Godavari and Krishna River Basins, India, Using Compromise Programming K. Srinivasa Raju, D. Nagesh Kumar, and Naga Babu I 5 Integrated Reservoir Operation Considering Real-Time Hydrological Prediction for Adaptive Water Resources Management Daisuke Nohara and Tomoharu Hori 6 Optimization of Integrated Operation of Dams Using Ensemble Prediction Satoru Oishi vii

7 viii Contents Part III Adaptive Policy Under Climate Change: Case Studies 7 Adaptation to Climate Change: Risk Management Slobodan P. Simonovic 8 Adaptation to Climate Change: Decision Making Young-Oh Kim and Eun Sung Chung 9 Adaptation to Climate Change: Green Development Elpida Kolokytha 10 Adaptation to Climate Change: Institutional Analysis Ana Cristina Souza da Silva, Carlos de Oliveira Galvão, Márcia Maria Rios Ribeiro, and Tafnes da Silva Andrade Part IV The Way Ahead 11 Climate Change Impacts and Water Resource Management and Planning Elpida Kolokytha, Carlos de Oliveira Galvão, and Index