CARBON FUTURES: REDUCING EMISSIONS FOR THE AUCKLAND REGION. James Hughes Robert Perry

Transcription

1 CARBON FUTURES: REDUCING EMISSIONS FOR THE AUCKLAND REGION James Hughes Robert Perry 1 Dec 2010

2 What we do know is that if we burn most of our remaining coal, oil and gas reserves over the next 500 years, we will increase carbon dioxide emissions not by a factor of two, but by a factor of ten, and scientists do have a description for this level of global warming: Venus. Dr Thomas Lovejoy, Smithsonian Institution

3 Climate Change Responses Myriad of strategies Are they effective? What has worked? What is happening in NZ? Carbon Futures Page 3

4 Adaptation Vs Mitigation Strategies Many Cities / Regions initially focused on reducing their emissions (mitigation) Now adaptation is seen as being a stronger priority by many cities Why is this? - Mitigation (reducing emissions) is proving very difficult although there are a number of emerging success stories - Very difficult to get agreement across sectors, cities, regions and countries (eg ETS targets) to enable policy to be developed - Complementary measures have had some degree of success - Local govt control of emissions is limited across sectors and while it covers areas such as land use planning and transport planning, does not typically enter into areas such as energy generation - Key LG responsibility is service delivery and ensuring this is resilient Carbon Futures Page 4

5 Climate Change Mitigation Case Studies Global warming is the most important urban management issue for the city in the 21 st century. City of Sydney Strategic Plan, 2008

6 Case Studies Sydney: Sustainable Sydney Strategic Plan Final Consultation Draft (City of Sydney, 2008) Melbourne: Zero Net Emissions by 2020 Update 2008 (City of Melbourne, 2008) Kansas: Progress Report on Climate Protection and Phase 1 Recommendations (Kansas City, 2007) Vancouver: Vancouver 2020: A Bright Green Future (2009) Carbon Futures Page 6

7 City of Sydney Overall target of GHG reduction to 50% of 1990 level by 2030 A Revitalised City Centre - for business, residents and leisure An Integrated Transport Network Continuous green corridors Activity Hubs Sustainable development to transform the city Specific initiatives developed in areas of residential, commercial and transport sectors. Carbon Futures Page 7

8 City of Melbourne, CBD Carbon Futures Page 8 Zero net emission by incorporating residential, commercial, transport and decarbonisation of the energy supply Leading Edge Design for building stock Greening the Power Supply to decarbonise the energy supply using renewable energy Sequestration Using sequestration as a form of offsetting emissions Reducing the Council GHG emissions.

9 City of Kansas Target: cut GHG emissions by 30% from 2000 levels by the year 2020 Energy reductions in energy use Transportation initiatives Carbon Offsets Waste Management City Government Policies and Codes of Practice Carbon Futures Page 9

10 Vancouver Eliminating Vancouver s dependence on fossil fuels with a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 33 per cent from 2007 levels Making the city a mecca for green enterprise by setting up a low-carbon economic development zone Making Vancouver a world leader in the design and construction of green buildings. Encouraging greater green mobility by having more than 50 per cent of residents walking, cycling or using public transit to move around the city. Reducing the amount of solid waste per capita that goes to landfills or is incinerated by 40 per cent. Maintaining the highest international standards for drinking water but reducing the per-capita consumption of water by 33 per cent. Becoming a global leader in urban food systems and reducing the carbon footprint of food production by 33 per cent. Carbon Futures Page 10

11 NZ Examples Wellington City: Aspirational vision for both Council operations and the city as a whole for carbon neutrality. Council operations target 40% reduction by Auckland Region: No fixed target Waitakere City: provisional target for 2026 Carbon Futures Page 11

12 The ARC Carbon Futures Study Becoming the greenest city is more than an environmental objective: it s also a savvy economic strategy, for it will offer a competitive advantage in attracting highly mobile investment dollars, businesses, entrepreneurs, and talented workers. Vancouver 2020: A Bright Green Future

13 Overview Carbon Futures Develop a suite of GHG abatement initiatives for the Auckland Region Stage 1 - Data Review (CCP), Baseline Emissions and BAU Projections - Best Practice Review in terms of evaluation, reporting and ideas for reduction options Stage 2: Develop Reduction Options through workshops and evaluate across a range of criteria Stage 3: Update the BAU Projections after Carbon Now completed Carbon Futures Page 13

14 GHG Footprint for Auckland Data Sources (2001) CCP community inventory ARC and TAs - Based on proxy data from CCP-NZ CCP corporate data for Auckland region and TAs Statistics New Zealand population data Energy Data File (MED) Netscape project (NIWA) Carbon Futures Page 14

15 CO 2-eq estimates for Auckland Region for yr 2006* *12 M Tonnes Total Carbon Futures Page 15

16 Some key points re Baseline estimate While it was always understood that the data from the CCP would be approximate only, it was felt that in general it was a good approximation of baseline emissions for the region. No reliable method to gain accurate, region wide electricity usage data or electricity usage across energy sectors. Potential solutions: - Sum of the electricity flows through grid exit points (GXPs) within the Auckland Region. - Access data from energy suppliers to determine distribution across sectors...difficult. Carbon Futures Page 16

17 Auckland BAU CO 2-eq Projection to million Tonnes CO2-eq CO2-eq Transport Transport Industrial Industrial Commercial Commercial Residential Residential Waste Waste Agricultural Agricultural 1990 Level 11M Tonnes Year 18% rise from 2001 to % rise from 2001 to 2040 Total NZ Emissions (2006) 78mTonnes (48% Ag) 26% rise since 1990 Auckland therefore makes up approx 15% of total NZ emissions Carbon Futures Page 17

18 Development of GHG Reduction Initiatives Detailed assumptions were agreed and recorded in order to estimate GHG reductions Long list and shortlist arrived at via workshops and MCA criteria: - Ease of implementation - Socio Economic Fairness - Environmental Impacts - Community / Cultural Impacts - Economic Impacts to Households / Businesses - Affordability Cost per tonne abated - Scale of GHG Reduction Order of magnitude costs were developed Carbon Futures Page 18

19 MCA Criteria and Weighting Criteria Description 1 Ease of implementation How simple the project will be to get underway 2 Socio Economic Fairness Fairness across income groups, ethnic groups (equity). 3 Environmental Impacts Measure to show if there were any additional positive or negative environmental effects (other than GHG reduction) 4 Community / Cultural Impacts Measure to show if there were any additional positive or negative cultural / community effects 5 Economic Impacts to Households / Businesses 6 Affordability Cost per tonne abated Indicates if the option would have a financial implication if introduced and the degree to which this would be incurred. Pre-calculated by Maunsell: indicates order of magnitude of the cost per tonne abated for each option 7 Scale of GHG Reduction Pre-calculated by Maunsell: indicates the overall scale of option (eg wind farm vs light bulb). Criteria Weighting Ease of implementation 10% Socio-economic fairness 5% Environmental Impacts 5% Community/Cultural impacts 5% Economic Impacts to Household / Business 20% Affordability - Cost per tonne abated 20% Scale of GHG Reduction 35% TOTAL 100% Options were ranked on this basis and prioritised based on a final score. 3 Tiers were developed Carbon Futures Page 19

20 Tier1 - Top 10 Initiatives Num Initiative Combined Score Indicative $/T CO2 2.1 Energy efficiency awareness - industrial 83% Very Low 1.1 Residential behavioural change (energy audits, awareness campaign) 81% Very Low 3.5 Improvement & Integration of Public Transport 76% Very High 1.2 Retrofitting households with soft capital projects (lighting, low flow shower head, etc) 75% Low 4.2 Carbon Sink 74% Very Low 1.3 Retrofitting insulation ventilation home heating 72% Medium 3.1 Transit Oriented Development (TOD) 72% Very High 3.1 Electric vehicles 69% Low 2.2 Retrofits in business - low cost (lighting) 68% Low 2.3 Retrofits in business - med cost (heating) 66% High Carbon Futures Page 20

21 Tier 2 Next 10 Initiatives Num Initiative Combined Score Indicative $/T CO2 1.4 Retrofitting households with capital projects - hot water and space heating 64% High 3.8 Car Parking Policy 64% Very Low 3.14 PT Pricing Reform 64% Low 3.11 Road user Charging 64% Low 4.1 Organic Waste Management 64% Medium 3.12 Congestion charging 64% Low 2.4 Business Engagement Programmes 64% Low 2.5 Green Procurement 62% Very Low 3.9 Cleaner fuel for buses (compressed natural gas) 61% Low 3.13 Carbon Pollution Tax 60% Low Carbon Futures Page 21

22 Tier 3 Next 10 Initiatives Num Initiative Combined Score Indicative $/T CO2 3.2 Heavy freight logistics and spoil management 59% Low 5.2 Biogas from green waste 58% Very High 3.6 Work travel plan 58% Medium 3.3 Cycling Programme 56% Very High 3.4 Walking programme 54% Very High 5.1. Medium Scale Wind 53% Very High 3.7 School Travel Plan 52% Very High 5.4 Solar photovoltaic 52% Very High 5.5 Solar photovoltaic farm 51% High 5.6 Energy action hub 50% Low 5.3 On site wind 49% Very High Carbon Futures Page 22

23 Emissions Reductions by Sector 20,000 18,000 Kilotonnes of CO2 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8, level 2006 level 6,000 4,000 2, Waste / Ag Initiatives Energy Initiatives Transport Initiatives Comm/Ind Initiatives Residential Initiatives Unsaved emissions Carbon Futures Page 23

24 Emissions Reductions by Tier 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12, level 10,000 8, level 6,000 4,000 2, Kilotonnes of CO Carbon Futures Page 24 Top 10 - Tier 1 Next 10 - Tier 2 Others - Tier 3 Unsaved emissions

25 Comments and Summary The majority of reductions are produced from the transport sector (note a large portion from the Electric Vehicles option) The Top 10 options constitute approximately 60% of identified savings. With all options in place, 2040 emissions would be approximately 14% below 2006 levels, or 30% above 1990 levels. A number of the options in would not operate in conjunction with each other as they are likely alternatives. For example congestion charging and road user charging. Carbon Futures Page 25

26 Conclusions reached That the model developed for this Carbon Futures work should be used to inform discussions to reduce emissions across the Auckland Region That ARC work with the TLAs in developing realistic CO2 emission reduction targets for the short, medium and long term. The findings in this report will help in achieving this. It is recommended that targets for 2040 might lie between 2006 levels and 10% below 2006 levels. This involves all three Tiers of options. That more detailed financial analysis be undertaken on a group of options deemed to be worthy of taking forward. This group of options will depend on the overall targets set. The Top 10 options were estimated to achieve approximately 60% of the total potential savings, and as such it was recommended that these be focussed on initially. Carbon Futures Page 26

27 Final Thoughts Buying a gas-guzzling 4x4 vehicle is an individual choice but it creates carbon emissions that contribute to global warming and harm everyone. It should be no more sociably acceptable than to claim the right to dump rubbish in the street. Ken Livingstone, previous Mayor of London

28 Thank You