Development of Transmission Infrastructure in Europe: ENTSO-E s Ten Year Network Development Plan

Transcription

1 Development of Transmission Infrastructure in Europe: ENTSO-E s Ten Year Network Development Plan Yannis Kabouris IPTO SEERC 2nd Technical Advisory Committee meeting 14 th January 2016, Athens

2 Regulatory Framework EC Directive 2009/72 and Regulation 714/2009 mandates ENTSO-E to: Deliver network codes binding to all network users (through Comitology ) Deliver a non-binding Union-wide ten-year network development plan ( TYNDP ) updated every two years Deliver crucial aspects of market integration ( market coupling ) R&D Plan (including the just approved E-Highways 2050 study) Deliver European generation adequacy outlook (5/15 years) Deliver an integrated modeling of networks and market at European level Furthermore the Reg. 714/2009 mandates to National Regulatory Authorities to check the TYNDP document consistency with National Development Plants

3 About ENTSO-E More than 40 Working Groups and teams

4 Wide area synchronous grids in Europe

5 The Ten-year Network development plan at a glance Identification of all challenges in building the necessary infrastructure

6 Energy Policy Goals Require significant increase in grid capacity Ensuring the development of a single European grid in line with targets and upcoming 2030 targets EIP Guaranteeing security of supply Completing the internal energy market

7 TYNDP the sole basis for the PCI selection - Regulation (EU) 347/2013 Transparency on all TYNDP projects Harmonized EU energy system-wide CBA Demonstrate overall costs and benefits from a Pan-European system perspective Support in the selection of the PCIs TYNDP CBA resultssupport for the PCI Selection process Support to the Cross border cost allocation if requested NDPs - Projects of national relevance Regional reports - Projects of regional relevance TYNDP report- Projects of pan- European relevance Projects of common interest PCIs TYNDP package

8 The TYNDP 2014 is the outcome of a 2-year interactive process

9 Involving Stakeholders at every milestone Public ENTSO-E workshops open to all interested parties, information sharing, collection of comments Official ENTSO-E consultations open to all using a dedicated webtool, Long term network development stakeholder group launched by ENTSO-E gathering key European organisations (supporting material public for all in the ENTSO-web) Bilateral meetings / dedicated discussions between ENTSO-E and ACER / EC / other stakeholders experts photos by O. Tsernobrovkin, Regional group Baltic sea stakeholder workshop

10 Framing uncertainty to build the right infrastructure Economic and financial conditions Energy policies R&D schemes CO 2 prices Energy prices NATIONAL NATIONAL VISION 3: GREEN TRANSITION VISION 4: GREEN REVOLUTION Economic and financial conditions Energy policies R&D schemes CO 2 prices Energy prices EUROPEAN EUROPEAN Economic and financial conditions Energy policies NATIONAL Economic and financial conditions Energy policies EUROPEAN R&D schemes CO 2 prices Energy prices NATIONAL VISION 1: SLOW PROGRESS VISION 2: MONEY RULES R&D schemes CO 2 prices Energy prices EUROPEAN

11 4 contrasting Visions Total X-border Exch. 605 TWh Demand incl. Pumping 4167 TWh RES Penetration 49% CO2 Reduction (1990) 62% Total X-border Exch. 734 TWh Demand incl. Pumping 4327 TWh RES Penetration 60% CO2 Reduction (1990) 78% Total X-border Exch. 660 TWh Demand incl. Pumping 3610 TWh RES Penetration 41% CO2 Reduction (1990) 42% Total X-border Exch. 757 TWh Demand incl. Pumping 3712 TWh RES Penetration 40% CO2 Reduction (1990) 36%

12 The Ten-year Network development plan 2014: main findings 150 billions for projects of pan-e significance by to -5 /MWh for bulk power prices by km of new or refurbished grid investments by 2030: +1%/year An optimised land use: the crossed urbanised (resp. protected) areas account for less than 4% (resp. 8%) of the total TYNDP projects routes Contribution with 20% of the CO2 emissions mitigation for the European power sector by 2030 Integration of RES up to 40-60% of total consumption in 2030

13 RES development is the major driver for grid development A major shift of the generation mix by 2030 Total installed capacity +30% (V1) to +90% (V4) from now to 2030 corresponding basically to added RES capacities RES covers 40% of demand in V1 RES covers 60% of demand in V4

14 Renewable energy goals driving European grid development From 197 GW up to 876 GW of installed renewable capacity in 2030 Up to 60% of total energy consumption in 2030 covered by renewables 80% of the pan-eu projects contribute to renewables integration João Ricardo Page 14 of XX

15 Larger, more volatile over longer distances power flows About 100 investment needs 4 electric peninsulas

16 Interconnection capacity must on average double by 2030

17 Taylor made solutions, adapted to every specific situation km of new or refurbished investments km of new HVDC lines 15% of all investments are upgrade of existing assets

18 150 billion by 2030, with a positive net impact on social welfare 150 billions for projects of pan-e significance by to +2 /MWh to cover investment costs - 2 to -5 /MWh for bulk power prices by 2030

19 The TYNDP s positive environmental impact Integration of RES up to 40-60% of total consumption -20% of the CO2 emissions for the European power sector Total grid length +1%/yr only (vs generation of +3 to +5%/yr) urbanised areas Less than 4% of routes in urbanised areas Less than 8% of routes in protected areas protected areas

20 Transmission adequacy by 2030 Integration of iberian peninsula is the main concern Solution concepts must still become tangible projects to meet highest RES development goals (Vision 4)

21 South-East Europe: Regional focus

22 Continental South East Region 12 TSOs + AL & TR (corresponding members - collaboration in data provision and modeling) IPTO TERNA ESO MEPSO EPCG NOsBiH HOPS EMS TRANSELECTRICA ELES MAVIR GR IT BG MK ME BA HR RS RO SI HU

23 Energy balance in the 4 Visions Exported energy (TWh/year) The modeled area of CSE Region is an exporter in all 4 visions. Higher exports appear in Visions 1&2 and lower exports in Visions 3&4. This is because of the hypothesis constituting the framework of each scenario and especially the higher CO2 prices and RES penetration assumed in Visions 3& Vision 1 Vision 2 Vision 3 Vision 4

24 Regional drivers for grid development Market integration: Increase of cross-border and internal transfer capacities in order to assist market integration in the Region. Massive RES penetration: The anticipated large RES penetration (mainly wind, PV and hydro) in the Region in order to achieve EU and National targets require extensive grid developments. Evacuation of future conventional generation mostly in the West part of the Region.

25 Regional bottlenecks The orientation of identified areas with potential bottlenecks defines the main power flow directions (N->S and E->W). Increase of transfer capacity in these areas assists the market integration of the Region More than 1000MW of wind generation is expected to be connected in RO and RS close to their borders. The exploitation of windy areas at the Bulgarian and Romanian coastal areas of Black sea is expected to trigger significant power flows. With the planned network development about 5000MW will be realized. The Greek island of Crete has an enormous wind and solar potential. Its interconnection will allow the transfer of renewable energy towards the load center of Continental Greece.

26 Bulk power flows in Vision 1 Bulk power flows in Vision 1

27 Bulk power flows in Vision 4 Bulk power flows in Vision 4

28 Regional project portfolio, mid-term and long-term Mid-term projects are before 2019 and long term projects after 2019 Information shown concerns projects of pan-european relevance, however it should be kept in mind that this portfolio is complements by the projects of regional investments necessary for increasing SoS in many areas of the Region or assisting market integration of areas like the Greek islands.

29 The challenge of financing the necessary grid development Taking into account the rather sparse transmission network of the Balkan peninsula, the transmission investments needed to achieve the targets of are high compared to the normal rate of transmission investments in the Region. Financing of this plan faces difficulties taking also into account the current fiscal conditions as well as the fact that there are numerous non-eu countries in the Region with differences in the legislation and the available financing tools/sources. Potential solutions have been identified in the ENTSO-E public position paper Incentivizing European investments in transmission network

30 Transmission adequacy For most of the boundaries in the Region, the proposed project portfolio is expected to be adequate in order to achieve the necessary target capacities. The only exception concerns the West borders of Romania and Bulgaria where some additional grid reinforcements might be required in order to cope with ambitious RES development projects as well as uncertainties related to the impact of non-entso-e countries such as Turkey that is already in parallel operation with CESA.

31 MedTSO : Current and Future Interconnections AC Interconnection in operation > 380kV Cartelle Conchos Alto Lindoso Lagoaca Pocinho Aldeadavilla Saucelle Castelo Covelo Cedillo Falagueira Alqueva Sotavento Tavira Brovalles Guillena P. Guzman Tarifa Fardiioua Boudrim Irun Hermani Quajda Errondenia Argia Praqueres Baixas Biescas Vic Santa Llogaia Terga (Sidi Ali Chazaouet Boussidi) Telemcen Albetville Grand d ille Praz-St-Andre Menton El Aquinet Fiume Santo Chafia Djebel Venous Comporosso Tajetouine Metlaoui Bouchema Tataouine Piosassco Jebdouba Mednine Villanova Latina Siorgente Rizziconi Galatina Lastva Zemlak Maritsa Dubrovo Blagoevgrad Lagadas N. Santa Thessaloniki Kardia Aracthos Hamitabat Babaeski AC Interconnection in operation < 380kV DC Interconnection in operation Future AC Interconnection > 380kV Future AC Interconnection < 380kV Future DC Interconnection Deir Nebouh Kesara Tartous Aleppo Del Ali Birecik Damascus AbouKammash El Rowis Tubrak Sidi Krir Saloum Amman N. Amman W. Gaza Arish Aqaba S. Towiba

32 Thank you