Wind Integration Project. Update on BC Hydro s Activities. December 4, 2007

Transcription

1 Wind Integration Project Update on BC Hydro s Activities December 4,

2 Wind Data RFP Task Lead: Kathy Lee (Presented by Sol Friedman Energy Planning) 2

3 Wind Data RFP What is needed and why Objective: To obtain a good dataset cost-effectively that will serve as an input to the wind integration studies to be performed and/or coordinated by BC Hydro and BCTC Key deliverable: An assessment of the characteristics of wind resources in different regions of the province, and to derive wind- and wind plant production data that accurately represent the spatial and temporal characteristics of developable wind projects in the different regions 3

4 Study Geographical Boundaries As a minimum, this should include the following four regions (as identified in the 2007 Garrad Hassan report): Northern Vancouver Island North Coast (Onshore and Offshore) Peace Region Southern & Eastern Interior A reasonable approach would be to do mesoscale modeling using a larger grid size for larger areas and smaller grid size for the areas defined above The bidder is to make recommendations on the number and size of the regions and grid resolution to be used 4

5 Scope of Work Data collection and quality control of existing meteorological tower data Validation of existing wind maps and recommend need for new ones if required Wind mapping depending on findings from the previous task, the bidder may be asked to produce wind maps for the regions of interest or for the entire province Site screening and characterization - identification of a significant number of developable wind project sites to allow analysis of regional diversity and to enable the study of a wide range of wind scenarios 5

6 Scope of Work Data derivation - for each site identified in the previous task, the bidder will simulate a time series of wind resource data (10 years of 10 minute data) Characterization of wind resource for different regions - energy potential and energy pattern for each identified region for different temporal resolutions, and determination of any correlation between regions Investigation of correlation between wind energy, system load and weather Wind generation forecasts simulation (7 day hourly forecast for every day in the 10 yr period) 6

7 Timelines The estimated time to complete the study once the contract is signed is 3 4 months The RFP will be advertised publicly At least 12 companies (in Canada, the U.S. and Europe) are known to have the capability to do all or parts of this study 7

8 Wind Forecasting Task Task Lead: Doug Smith (Manager, Hydrology & Technical Services) 8

9 Objectives for Forecasting Task Develop Strategy for Wind Energy Forecasting that: Provides appropriate forecast skill for BCH s operational mandate Consistent approach and quality across all Wind IPP s Develop implementation plan including: timing resource requirements and cost estimates 9

10 Alternative Alternatives Considered Pros Cons No Forecasting No direct forecast cost Operating stress and Lost Opportunity Costs IPP Forecast BC Hydro Forecast Low BCH direct cost Consistent quality & skill across system, aligned with operations needs Inconsistent quality and forecast skill across the fleet Operating and capital costs 10

11 Approach BCH will: forecast energy production for all wind farms connected to transmission system will have primary accountability of meteorologic data collection for supporting the forecasting requirements either directly or through contractors will mange the meteorologic data quality control, either directly or through contractors Data collected by BCH or their agents will: be made available to Environment Canada or other academic researchers, for the purpose of real-time forecasting. restricted publication of data by non disclosure as appropriate 11

12 Approach Unit status data: for all units in all wind farms will be available to BCH in realtime will be collected by BCTC EMS system through their connection agreement and made available to BCH Unit outage plans will be entered into BC Hydro s Commercial Management (CM) system by individual IPPs. A wind forecasting plan: will be done for each wind farm to determine: data collection requirements and forecasting requirements developed in-house or contracted to qualified expert. cost recovery TDB 12

13 Milestones and Dates Sub-Task Description Completion Modifcation of Commercial Management (CM) to Support IPP usage. Definition Implementation Data Standards and specifications Wind Farm Forecasting Plan Meteorologic data collection system design Forecasting process design Wind data quality control procedures Design Implementation Production Operation (annual OMA) FYE09 FYE08 12 months prior to connection FYE Data Collection System Maintenance (annual/farm) IT Infrastructure Definition Implementation Wind Forecasting (per Farm) Daily forecast of hourly generation out 48 hours FYE10 3 months prior to connection Totals 13

14 Proposed Studies Framework for the Assessment of Impact of Wind Integration on Generation Operations Task Lead: Clement Ma (Manager, Planning, Scheduling & Operations) 14

15 What the Study will Address Wind Generation Operations Study Wind Integration Costs System Impact due to Wind Energy Ramp Rate Impact on Regulating and Operating Reserves Wind Penetration Bottlenecks Hydro Scheduling and Planning Impact Analysis Impact of increasing wind development Wind generation operations study will rely on data sets to be prepared by the separate Wind Data Study 15

16 What the Study will Address Study will identify a number of sub-studies for: a number of locations of potential wind sites in BC a number of scenarios for potential development of the generation and transmission system a range of wind penetration levels a number of load growth scenarios for the next 25 years Study will address the impacts of integrating wind energy on the generating system Study will NOT address the details of potential impacts on the transmission systems; BCTC will carry out such studies 16

17 Models to be used Three models will be used in the study: The Hydro Simulation Model (Hysim) to model impacts of wind energy infusions into the BC Hydro System The Generalized Optimization Model (GOM) to model the seasonal and mid-term impacts on system operations, including energy and capacity The Short Term Optimization Model (STOM) and the AGC Optimizer to model impacts on short term system operations and the cost/ lost opportunity of ancillary services, including capacity reserves, ramp up/ down on generation operations 17

18 Hysim model runs: Monthly time step for 60 years Simulate the operation of the integrated system under various hydrologic and load conditions base case scenario and with various future wind energy penetration scenarios & different new acquisition options Other runs for different load years (and scenarios if needed), over 5, 10, 15 and 20 years horizon 18

19 GOM model runs: bi-hourly time step for 10 years ( ) water years that represents different hydrologic conditions in the Pacific Northwest (wet, average and dry) for different load scenarios as in Hysim input data used (e.g., market prices, outage schedule, inflows, etc) will closely follow the assumptions used in preparing LTAP a curtailment study will be carried out to simulate the most opportune time to absorb wind energy the regional transmission network will be modeled to assess the impact of transmission bottlenecks 19

20 STOM & AGC Optimizer model runs: Hourly and sub-hourly time step for 10 yrs One-week study on a 24 hours moving window 10 minute studies for select number of days Base case using STOM data base, a second run to model simulate changes resulting from integrating wind on the BC Hydro largest plants Select a number of days to analyse: - the cost of increased uncertainty resulting from within-the-hour variations in wind generation - the costs of ramp requirements to accommodate the influx of wind energy in real-time operations - the cost of ancillary service requirements for the next 20 years for various wind penetration scenarios 20

21 Main Deliverables of the Study These include: a detailed description of the hydro generating system and the transmission system and the main assumptions used in the study assessment of the impact of wind energy ramp rates on the system and the impacts on energy, capacity and regulating reserves detailed models outputs and analysis of the results, the unit cost of integrating wind energy into the BC Hydro system wind penetration bottleneck or pinch points and limits assessment of potential wind development limits that could arise from the bottlenecks identified above assessment of the main changes to existing hydro scheduling and operation planning approach that will be required to integrate wind into the BC Hydro system and the incremental impacts of increasing wind development scenarios on the integrated BC system generation operations 21