Socioeconomics in the SUPERGEN Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Consortium

Transcription

1 Socioeconomics in the SUPERGEN Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Consortium Presentation to the Hub Research Meeting by Socioeconomics UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources UCL Energy Institute Newcastle, Wednesday 30 th July 2014

2 Introduction Core research programme Transport Infrastructure Energy storage Challenge project: Hydrogen s Value in the Energy System (HYVE) Hub White Paper on heating Socioeconomics

3 Building on the UKSHEC research programme Innovation Technology learning Scenarios Energy system modelling Transport Socioeconomics core research programme

4 Scenarios and transition pathways Combining qualitative and quantitative approaches How can we construct robust storylines and scenarios? How can we deal with the huge uncertainties? In press (Futures) Transport Socioeconomics core research programme

5 Modelling methodology Methods of representing the transport sector in energy system models Considers a wider range of powertrains than previous studies Presents a completely revised transport model in UK MARKAL Transport Socioeconomics core research programme

6 Low-carbon transport Large OEMs are backing FCEVs The McKinsey study in 2010 Compares BEVs, FCVs and PHEVs. Small (A/B), medium (C/D) and SUV (J1/J2) segments. Concludes that a portfolio of different vehicle types might be expected to co-exist in the future. FCVs are ready for commercial deployment. H2Mobility programmes in several countries UK H2Mobility Phase 1 report in 2013 Roadmap to introducing FCEVs to the UK Socioeconomics core research programme

7 Total cost of car ownership Hydrogen powertrain uptake Transport: comparison of powertrains 100, % 90,000 80% 80,000 60% 70,000 40% 60,000 20% 50, Diesel ICE NH Diesel HEV Diesel PHEV BEV FCHV FC PHEV HICEH 0% Small Medium/Large All cars Socioeconomics core research programme From Dodds & McDowall (2014)

8 Transport Powertrains analysis Revisit the McKinsey and UK H 2 Mobility conclusions, but from an energy systems perspective Uses the revised transport model in UK MARKAL Can we reconcile variations between previous studies? In press IJHE Socioeconomics core research programme

9 Ongoing research Carlo Raucci Hublinked PhD student Examining the potential role for hydrogen and fuel cells in low-carbon shipping Supervisors Tristan Smith and Paul Dodds (UCL) Transport Socioeconomics core research programme

10 Also building on UKSHEC SHIPMod spatial hydrogen supply chains (similar to Nilay s research) Gas networks Infrastructure Socioeconomics core research programme

11 Gas networks Papers: Future of the gas networks Conversion of the networks to deliver hydrogen Workshop: 2-day UKERC-funded workshop in London in March 2013, ~60 attendees Talks: Several conference talks Seminar: 300 years of the gas networks Socioeconomics core research programme

12 Gas networks Ongoing research Owain Jones (Hub-linked PhD student) Examining the potential impacts of micro-chp on the electricity distribution system Working with the University of Durham and Northern Powergrid Supervisors Paul Dodds and Paul Ekins (UCL) Socioeconomics core research programme

13 Outputs from the core programme Papers Two book chapters in Handbook of hydrogen energy Conference presentations: H2FC Hub events H2FC annual conferences in Birmingham WHEC 2012, 2014 and WHTC 2013 Work with DECC on hydrogen and gas: Several meetings with DECC teams Contributing to a group defining green hydrogen Socioeconomics core research programme

14 Energy storage UKTM model developed to replace UK MARKAL Likely to make an important contribution to the DECC and CCC analysis for the government 5 th carbon budget report Open-source full first version in December 2014 Integration of power-to-gas into the UK energy system using UKTM Value of inter-seasonal storage? Socioeconomics core research programme

15 Challenge project: HYVE Aim: to assess the value of hydrogen to a lowcarbon UK energy system How can hydrogen contribute to the energy system? What is the value of hydrogen to different sectors? How can we transition to a hydrogen system? Socioeconomics Challenge project HYVE

16 Collaborators Paul Ekins, Paul Dodds, Will McDowall, Paolo Agnolucci UCL Energy Insititute Lazaros Papageorgiou UCL Chemical Engineering Gareth Harrison University of Edinburgh Phil Coker University of Reading Socioeconomics Challenge project HYVE

17 Markets Electricity and gas Industry Phil Coker (Reading) Renewable scenarios Gareth Harrison (Edinburgh) Gas and electricity networks Paul Dodds (UCL) Adding hydrogen technologies to the industry sector of the UKTM energy system model Transport Heat Building on the transport research Building on the White Paper on heat Socioeconomics Challenge project HYVE

18 Model soft-linking Where should we build power-to-gas? UKTM energy system model From: H2FC Hub, UKERC Energy system scenarios what are we aiming for? Gas and electricity network models From: ARIES SHIPMod infrastructure planning model From: UKSHEC What are the renewable resources and likely build scenarios? How can hydrogen integrate the electricity and gas systems? How do we get there? Socioeconomics Challenge project HYVE

19 HYVE project overview Project commenced in June 2014 Kick-off meeting held; recruitment underway Watch out for interim workshops! Socioeconomics Challenge project HYVE

20 What do we mean by value? Different people define value in different ways Both economic and non-economic definitions What are these definitions and to what extent are they compatible? HYVE-linked PhD student, sponsored by Schlumberger, expected to start at UCL in October 2014 The PhD will examine how we value energy services and vectors, and how such valuations can be turned into business plans Socioeconomics Challenge project HYVE

21 Hub White Paper #1 UCL and Imperial College commissioned to produce the first White Paper in October 2013 The role of hydrogen and fuel cells in providing affordable, secure low-carbon heat Socioeconomics White Paper: The role of Fuel Cells and Hydrogen in Low Carbon Heating

22 Project team Paul Ekins project lead Paul Dodds, Adam Hawkes white paper editors Will McDowall, Francis Li, Iain Staffell, Phil Grűnewald, Tia Kansara, Paolo Agnolucci authors Chloe Stockford admin support Socioeconomics White Paper

23 Process 1. Reviews of the technical, academic and commercial literature. 2. Engagement with core industry stakeholders 3. Comparative analysis of heating technologies complemented by scenario building Two review workshops were held in March 2014 UCL (3 hours, invited) H2FC conference in Birmingham (1.5 hours, plenary) Professional typesetting Socioeconomics White Paper: The role of Fuel Cells and Hydrogen in Low Carbon Heating

24 Structure Part 1: Science and markets Fuel cells Hydrogen Heat markets Part 2: Hydrogen and fuel cell heat systems Scenarios for the UK energy system Case studies: residential fuel cells Part 3: Industrial capacity and policy issues UK H2FC industry opportunities Policy issues Socioeconomics White Paper: The role of Fuel Cells and Hydrogen in Low Carbon Heating

25 Launch event: City Hall, London Socioeconomics White Paper: The role of Fuel Cells and Hydrogen in Low Carbon Heating

26 Conclusions from White Paper (1) Fuel cell CHP is already being deployed commercially around the world Fuel cell capital costs are decreasing rapidly. They could be costcompetitive with other low carbon heating options in 5-10 years Hydrogen can be a zero-carbon alternative to natural gas Hydrogen could potentially be delivered via the existing natural gas distribution networks, and hydrogen heat technologies are available At present, injection of small amounts of hydrogen into grids can lower average gas CO 2 emissions rates Socioeconomics White Paper: The role of Fuel Cells and Hydrogen in Low Carbon Heating

27 Conclusions from White Paper (2) Most modelling studies do not consider H2FC technologies The levelised cost of heat provision is similar for several technologies by 2050 Gas network conversion could be economically viable Portfolio approach to heat technologies in the future? Socioeconomics White Paper: The role of Fuel Cells and Hydrogen in Low Carbon Heating

28 Conclusions from White Paper (3) Micro-CHP fuel cells would support the electricity system by: generating electricity at times of national peak demand; generating electricity at times of high heat pump and vehicle demands. Fuel cells perform better in well-insulated homes. Fuel cell CHP powered by natural gas produces lower net emissions than the existing counterfactual system. Socioeconomics White Paper: The role of Fuel Cells and Hydrogen in Low Carbon Heating

29 Overall White Paper Conclusions There is an opportunity for hydrogen and fuel cells to contribute to low-carbon heating There could be complementarities between hydrogen fuel cell heating and heat pumps There are significant challenges for hydrogen fuel cells to make a large-scale contribution to low-carbon heating (cost, infrastructure, low-carbon production) Policy is key for hydrogen and fuel cells to make a largescale contribution to low-carbon heating Socioeconomics White Paper: The role of Fuel Cells and Hydrogen in Low Carbon Heating

30 Dissemination 100 copies of the main report and another 100 copies of the Executive Summary printed Results presented at three conferences: All-Energy 2014 (Aberdeen) WHEC 2014 (South Korea) Energy Systems 2014 (London) Article in The Conversation Socioeconomics White Paper: The role of Fuel Cells and Hydrogen in Low Carbon Heating

31 Thank you for listening Questions? Socioeconomics