The Hydrogen Opportunity

Transcription

1 21 st Century Energy: The Hydrogen Opportunity David Austgen, VP Technology Shell Hydrogen Imperial College London, Feb

2 Guiding Questions What Shapes Long-Term Energy Interests? Why Hydrogen? Why Shell? What are the hurdles for hydrogen FCV s? When and how will the market and infrastructure develop?

3 What Shapes Long Term Energy? The contributors By 2050 demography: 8-10 billion people incomes: average $15-25k/capita urbanisation: 80% living in cities liberalisation: markets increase possibilities demand (2-3 times increase)

4 Climbing The Energy Ladder GJ/capita Source: IMF, BP China India Korea Thailand Mexico Brazil EU Australia Japan GDP/capita ( $ PPP) US $25k/capita: little extra energy needed. +$15k/capita: services start to dominate growth. +$10k/capita: industrialisation near complete. +$5k/capita: industrialisation and mobility take off.

5 Critical Drivers of Change Energy Security Climate Change - Greenhouse Gas Emissions Technological Change Local Air Quality

6 The Oil Mountain million bbls per day % per annum 2% per annum Ultimate Recoverable Resource 3,000 bln bbls bln bbls of NGLs bln bbls heavy oil and bitumen Source: based on USGS mean estimates, June, 2000 excluding shales

7 Oil and Gas Distribution: Energy Security Oil Reserves NG Reserves Percent O&GJ TCM Cedigaz 0 OECD Transition Economies Middle East Africa Asia Latin American 0 NA SA Africa ME Europe Russia Asia Energy Security = Diversified sources: Coal, biomass, solar, wind, nuclear, hydro, geothermal Energy Security = Secure/Local sources

8 Mainstream scientific consensus on CO 2 and Global Warming Global Mean Surface Temperature IPCC 3 rd Assessment Report Conclusions, January 2001 Man-made warming There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the past 50 years is attributable to human activities'' `Human influences will continue to change atmospheric composition throughout the 21st century'' and that change ``will persist for many centuries. Predicted surface warming of C between IEA WEO CO2 emissions could be about 35 to more than 50% higher in 2030 Source: IPCC

9 Renewable Resources are Adequate to Meet all Energy Needs 1000 GJ per capita Hydro Wind Demand Range N. America S. America Europe Source:adapted from UN 2000, WEC 1994, and ABB Figures based on 10 billion people. FSU Africa Middle East & N.Africa Asia Total Solar Geothermal Biomass

10 Guiding Questions What Shapes Long-Term Energy Interests? Why Hydrogen? Why Shell? What are the hurdles for hydrogen FCV s? When and how will the market and infrastructure develop?

11 Hydrogen: Facilitates Source Diversity and Clean Energy Hydrogen is a convenient energy storage medium (not a primary source of energy) Hydrogen is clean in either ICE or Fuel Cell or in Power Generation Can be used to store energy from intermittent sources like wind, solar Can be produced from fossil fuels and biomass via chemical conversion processes Can be produced from renewable sources via electrolysis

12 Shell s Vision for Future Energy Products The Future Energy Mix Cleaner crude-based fuels gasoline and diesel Clean hydrocarbon liquids derived from natural gas (GtL technology) Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) Bio-fuels Bioesters Ethanol Shell Solar Shell Wind Hydrogen Wind Solar

13 Guiding Questions What Shapes Long-Term Energy Interests? Why Hydrogen? Why Shell? What are the hurdles for hydrogen FCV s? When and how will the market and infrastructure develop?

14 Why Shell? Shell is an. Energy, Mobility and Petrochemicals Co.

15 Shell s Views on Climate Change Shell shares the widespread concern that GHGs from human activities are leading to changes in the global climate. We support the aim of stabilizing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. We believe action is required now. Shell has exceeded its 02 target to reduce emissions by 10% (vs 90); We support: A stable, moderate and widely inclusive policy regime New lower carbon technologies International cooperation and international agreements Involving developing countries Flexible market mechanisms like cap and trade systems Efficient energy use by consumers NG as an enabler to lower carbon intensity economic growth. A well-to-wheels perspective of emissions

16 Shell is already experienced in producing and handling H 2 Experienced at H 2 production: Shell has more experience in the safe and productive handling of H 2 & traditional fuels than any other company Shell produces more than 7000 tonnes H 2 per day and has been producing H 2 for over 40 years Shell is leveraging the most cost-effective, safe and available infrastructure to address the security, supply and responsible acceleration of the H 2 industry Shell is well connected to advance a greener hydrogen economy via Wind, Solar Shell is currently producing H 2 using a range of production technologies, such as: SMR, Oil gasification, coal gasification, and platforming

17 Guiding Questions What Shapes Long-Term Energy Interests? Why Hydrogen? Why Shell? What are the hurdles for hydrogen FCV s? When and how will the market and infrastructure develop?

18 Technical Issues for PEM Fuel Cell Systems High Negative impact if not solved Inexpensive on-board storage Reduced Platinum load Cold start & freezing Packaging FC system in car Electrode Poisoning Keeping membrane humid Packaging H2 storage volume - conformable tanks Medium temp. Metal hydrides with > 6 wt% H2 Low High Non precious metal catalyst Probability of Solving Low

19 Cost of FCV drive train as function of production volume System costs [$/kw] ICE competitive level K 30K 500K 5000K Number of vehicles per year

20 Production of Hydrogen Hydrogen Production Pathways Nuclear Energy Renewable Energy Fossil Energy Heat Biomass Mechanical Energy Photoelectrolysis Fermentation Electricity Chemical Conversion Thermolysis of water Electrolysis Biophotolysis Hydrogen CO 2 Adapted from John A. Turner, Science, 285, 687 (1999) for EU-HFP-SRA

21 Production of Hydrogen Hydrogen Production Pathways Nuclear Energy Renewable Energy Fossil Energy Heat Biomass Mechanical Energy Photoelectrolysis Fermentation Electricity Chemical Conversion Thermolysis of water Electrolysis Biophotolysis Hydrogen CO 2 Adapted from John A. Turner, Science, 285, 687 (1999) for EU-HFP-SRA

22 Avoiding CO2 Production RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY TO TO HYDROGEN? Renewable Renewable electricity electricity is is a a limited limited resource resource Can Can be be used used in in different different ways ways 1 1 GWh GWh of of renewable renewable electricity electricity Feed Feed to to power power grid grid to to replace replace coal-generated coal-generated power power Produce Produce hydrogen hydrogen by by Electrolysis Electrolysis for for use use in in fuel fuel cell cell vehicle vehicle to to replace replace gasoline gasoline hybrid-electric hybrid-electric vehicle vehicle CO CO 2 avoided 2 avoided t t CO CO 2 avoided 2 avoided t t Producing Producing hydrogen hydrogen for for fuel fuel cell cell vehicles vehicles does does not not maximise maximise the the overall overall GHG GHG benefit benefit GRPE_djrndt _ ppt Slide 23 GRPE_djrndt _ ppt Slide 23 Source: N. Thompson, D. Rickeard (CONCAWE), presentation at the Inland Transport Committee Round Table, 20 February 2002, Geneva

23 Non-bio Renewables: Production of Electricity for Direct Consumption EJ New Renewables Renewable Electricity Non-bio renewables produces in first instance electricity; IEA % % Primary Energy for Electricity Production Nuclear Fossil Energy Traditional World electricity generation doubles between 02 & 30 Renewable-energy consumption grows 60% 02 to 30 Share of non-hydro renewables in electricity will triple from 2 to 6% between 02 and 30 (IEA) There will much less of it than electricity production demands; Hence conversion to H 2 will be local and temporal: restricted to instances when and where there is an oversupply of renewables.

24 Cost of Electrolytic Hydrogen 12 Hydrogen Cost ($/kg H 2 ) Electrolyser cost 2800 $/kg H 2 /day Electrolyser cost 1000 $/kg H 2 /day David Welboren, TU Eindhoven, MSc thesis (2005) IHIG economic assumptions plus 52.7 kwh/kg H Electricity Cost ($/kwh) Inference: Electrolysis is doable now, as well as plausible in the long run. It is just expensive.

25 Chemical Conversion for H 2 Nuclear Energy Renewable Energy Fossil Energy Heat Biomass Mechanical Energy Photoelectrolysis Fermentation Electricity Chemical Conversion Thermolysis of water Electrolysis Biophotolysis Hydrogen CO 2 Adapted from John A. Turner, Science, 285, 687 (1999) for EU-HFP-SRA Steam-methane reforming (SMR) Gasification (coal, oil biomass ) Platforming, Steam cracking

26 CO 2 Production and Capture Fuel cell vehicles are more efficient at converting H 2 energy into miles than Internal Combustion Engines are in turning gasoline into miles GM-Argonne Well-to-Wheels study in which Shell participated indicated that GHG emissions from Spark ignition conventional gasoline vehicles produced about 550 g/mile FC HEV s using forecourt-produced H 2 (SMR) produced about 300 g/mile Diesel HEV produced about 390 g/mile CO 2 capture and sequestration will be an important element of the value proposition beyond the short term

27 Hydrogen Production: A Migration Pathway to CO 2 -Free H 2 CO 2 Emissions H 2 from existing SMR H 2 from new SMR, other w/ carbon capture H 2 from Renewables H 2 Production Time

28 Guiding Questions What Shapes Long-Term Energy Interests? Why Hydrogen? Why Shell? What are the hurdles for hydrogen FCV s? When and how will the market and infrastructure develop?

29 Shell Hydrogen Vision for H 2 Market Takeoff Market takeoff between 2015 and 2025 Under supportive circumstances we see the potential for 5 to 10 million FCV s in 2020, increasing to over 100 million between 2030 and 2040 Growth of H2 Market will depend on funding the transition to mass production - Dependent on public policy developments incentives Future landscape is being shaped now - Players developing H2 policies and positions Historical examples - Personal computers - Mobile phones

30 Shell Hydrogen Vision for Market Development Stand alone projects hydrogen-fuelled buses out of depots (eg. Amsterdam and Luxembourg) Second generation sites, with public access, but separate from existing fuel stations (eg. Iceland station) Fully integrated hydrogen and gasoline fuel stations (eg. Benning Road Shell Station in Washington DC) Within next 5 years Lighthouse projects: integrated stations within mini-networks connecting the mini-networks with corridors and filling the white spaces

31 The Next Stretch

32 800 km All current hydrogen production sites

33 800 km Area covered by 100 km distribution around production site

34 A New Approach: Mini Networks

35 The Next Stretch Need for: Addressing technical/manufacturing challenges Codes & standards Political awareness and public education Lighthouse Projects and Mini-networks; Funding the transition to higher volumes

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