Cortez Sea Water Alternatives

Transcription

1 Cortez Sea Water Alternatives Is it the seas last chance (alternative) the only option, or just another scheme to justify consulting fees? Copyright 2009 Agrarian Research & Management Company, LTD.

2 Possible Choices I. No Action II. Unmitigated Desalination III. Pump In Evaporate IV. Pump In - Pump Out V. Shipping Chanel Flow in - Evaporate VI. Shipping Chanel Flow in Pump out

3 *Technical Environmental Economic Design Spiral Stakeholder Permit Design Fund Build Operate Technical / Conceptual Feasibility Determine cost order of magnitude Miss revenue / benefit stream

4 Not Preferred Alternatives I. No Action 800,000 af/yr Salinity Surface area trending to 133,000 acres in years Fugitive dust foot print 100,000 acres Salinity increasing to 11% after 50 years II. Habitat destruction and microclimate agricultural impact Unmitigated Desalination 200,000 af/yr inflow Surface area trending to 35,000 acres in years Fugitive dust foot print 200,000 acres Salinity increasing to 30% after 15 years Sea becoming solid salt body after years Habitat destruction and microclimate agricultural impact

5 Not Preferred Alternatives No Action Unmitigated Desalination Projected Inflows 800,000 af 0.4% NaCl Desal Reject Brine 200,000 af 1.5% NaCl Evaporation Evaporation Salt Increase: 5% -> 11% (50 yrs) Surface Area Reduction: 133,000 ac Dust Footprint: 100,000 ac Salt Increase: 5% -> 30% (15 yrs) Surface Area Reduction: 35,000 ac Dust Footprint: 200,000 ac

6 Other Alternatives III. Pump in Evaporate 200,000 af/yr 1.5% Salinity (from desal) 1.2 M af/yr 3.5 Salinity Stable sea surface area No fugitive dust footprint (NaCl crystal body) No microclimate impact Salinity increasing by small percentage each year 20% habitat 80% dead sea due to increasing salinity Sea becomes solid salt body after 400+ years Possible Energy generation for desalination

7 Pump In Evaporate Model Torres Martinez Wetland 3.5% NaCl Desal Reject Brine 200,000 af 1.5% NaCl Cortez Shipping Channel Evaporation 1,400,000 af Salt Increase 0.5% each year Volume Stable Short Term, becoming solid salt body after 500+ years Import from Cortez Sea 1,200,000 af 3.5% NaCl

8 Pump In Evaporate Model Volume Pool Concentration NaCl* Inflow Concentration* 9,200,000 AC FT 5.1% (by weight) 1,200,000 AC FT / YR 3.2% (by weight) Evaporation 1,200,000 AC FT / YR Concentration* 0 Increase Concentration = Inflow x Concentration/Volume = 0.41% Volume of Salt = Volume (H20) x Concentration (NaCl)/SG SG NaCl 2.16 Starting Volume NaCl Increase Volume/year 217,222 AC FT 17,593 AC FT / YR Volume NaCl for given year = Starting Vol (NaCl) + [(Increase Vol (NaCl) per year) x # years)] Number years to full = [Pool Volume - Starting Vol (NaCl) ]/[Increase Vol (NaCl) per year] = 511 years *See Concentration Conversion Table for Alternate Units

9 Other Alternatives IV. Pump In Pump Out 200,000 af/yr 1.5% salinity (from desal) 1.1 M af/yr 3.5 salinity 300,000 af/yr 20% salinity Use concentrator ponds to balance salinity Stable sea surface area Up to 25% reduction in surface from concentrator berms No Fugitive dust foot print Stable salinity for each concentrator Portion of habitat preserved No microclimate agricultural impact Energy neutral

10 Pump In Pump Out Model Desal Reject Brine 200,000 af 1.5% NaCl Salt Reduction 5% -> 3% Water balance Evaporation 75% of 1,380,000 ac ft or 1,035,000 Import 1,135,000 Reject brine 200,000 Export 300,000 Balance -0,0- Evaporation 1,000,000 af Volume Reduction 9.2 M af -> 1.7 M af Surface Area Reduction up to 25% Export to Cortez Sea 300,000 af 20% NaCl Import from Cortez Sea 1,135,000 af 3.5% NaCl

11 Other Alternatives V. Shipping Channel Flow In Evaporate 200,000 af/yr 1.5% salinity (from desal) 1.2 M af/yr 3.5 salinity Stable sea surface area No immediate fugitive dust footprint No immediate microclimate impact Salinity increasing by 0.5%/yr Gradual habitat destruction loss due to increasing salinity Sea becomes solid salt body after 400+ years May generate energy needs further study

12 Shipping Channel Flow In Evaporate Model Same as Pump In - Evaporate Desal Reject Brine 200,000 af 1.5% NaCl Evaporation 1,400,000 af Salt Increase 0.5% each year Volume Stable Short Term, becoming solid salt body after 400+ years Import from Cortez Sea 1,200,000 af 3.5% NaCl

13 Other Alternatives VI. Shipping Channel Flow In Pump Out 200,000 af/yr 1.5% salinity (from desal) 1.1 M af/yr 3.5 salinity 300,000 af/yr 20% salinity Use concentrator ponds to balance salinity Stable sea surface area Up to 25% reduction in surface from concentrator berms No Fugitive dust foot print Stable salinity for each concentrator Portion of habitat preserved No microclimate agricultural impact

14 Shipping Channel In Pump Out Model Same as Pump In Pump Out Desal Reject Brine 200,000 af 1.5% NaCl Evaporation 1,000,000 af Salt Reduction 5% -> 3% Volume Reduction 9.2 M af -> 1.7 M af Surface Area Reduction up to 25% Export to Cortez Sea 300,000 af 20% NaCl Import from Cortez Sea 1,100,000 af 3.5% NaCl

15 Details Pump In Pump Out Option 1 - Pump out stratified brine 3.5% NaCl 15% NaCl Dalderan studies low probability for success

16 Details Pump In Pump Out Option 2 - Pump out concentrated brine Concentric Concentrators Production Pool heavy Salts Sump What s different 75 % original foot print, 10% original volume Safety net sump in middle Energy neutral concentrates import waters and exports 25% import mass, 110% salt Load

17 Concentrator Pond / Levee Detail 5:1 Slope 2 Freeboard Sea Surface Area Reduction of 25% 20:1 Slope 50% - 80% Variability Wave Height = func. (Wind Energy, time, fetch) = 2 ft for climatic conditions Reduced Surface Area = Reduced Fetch = Reduced Wave Height

18 Pipeline / Canal Alignment

19 Pumping calculations Yearly Energy Requirements Flow (ac ft /yr) Pipe Size TDH (up) Pump Energy TDH (down) Power Generated Net Power Generated (consumed) Net Energy Revenue (cost) 1.38 M (in) ,150 kw ,014 kw 3,864 kw $3.7 M / yr 300 k (out) ,720 kw - - (19,720) kw $(19.0 M) / yr Impellor dilution & System maintenance Influent Pipe Effluent Pipe Impellor Dilution system: Salinity probe, heat exchanger, fresh water bleed

20 Salt Concentration Calcs Alternative Inflow (af/yr) Conc Evaporation (af/yr) Outflow (af/yr) No action 800,000.4% -> 800, Unmitigated Desal Pump/ Flow in - Evap Pump / Flow in Pump out 200, % -> 200, ,000 1,200, ,000 1,100, % 3.5% 1.5% 3.5% Conc 1,400, ,000, ,000 20%+

21 Salt Concentration 8 Acre 6 months 1 year Max Concentration vs. Temperature

22 Salton Sea Profile

23 Salton Sea Profile

24 Conclusions: Desalination Component 800,000 Ac ft 75% product water $700 / af / yr for 50 yr contract 25% reject brine 0.4% NaCl > 1.5% NaCl Capital Cost O&M Replacement/ Removal Life Cycle Cost Issues $700 * 600,000 af = $420 M $420 M/.06 (Federal water rate) = 7 Billion (Capital Cost: 1/8? 1/4? 1/3? 1/2? ) May need additional revenue sources i.e. shipping channel, dust control cost reduction benefit

25 Alternatives Summary Water Balance (inflow) Salt Balance (inflow) Sea Salinity Energy Balance Sea State Historic Projected Desal Pump In - Evap Pump In Pump Out 1,400, , ,000 1,200,000 1,100, %.4% 1.5% 3.5% 3.5% Increasing < 0.1% / yr Increasing > 0.1% / yr Exponentially Increasing No use No use High Consumption Living Sea (80 yrs) Dying Sea (last 20 yrs) Dead Sea (100 years) Dead Sea in 15 yrs, turning to solid salt Increasing 0.5 % /yr Some Generation Dead Sea, turning to solid salt body (400+ yrs) Stable at 3.5% for living sea, up to 20% in last concentrator Energy Neutral 10% Living Sea 90% Dead Sea

26 Conclusions: Pump In Pump Out Possibly Energy Neutral 10% volume, low dikes, NO dam 15 % live sea 173,000 ac concentrators Salt sink Evap 75% import mass Export 25% import mass, >100 % salt Desal revenue No dust liability Ecological improvement over no alternative 20% living sea TECHNICALLY FEASIBLE`

27 Conclusions: Shipping Channel Shipping Primary Revenue Source Desalinated Water Secondary Revenue Source No dust foot print (major source of cost savings) No microclimate issues Selenium sump All flow in, no energy consumption Flood locks from Cortez Sea Dead sea state (unless pump out is utilized)

28 Conclusions Conceptual level feasibility Project Cost $1B, $10B, $100B Premature to make assessment Even if we can guess cost, we can t guess revenue stream Example Owen s Lake Dust Control Cost Basis Estimated at $125 M, cost $750 M + 100,000 ac ft /yr 100,000 ac ft water something we ain t got. May cost more NOT to fix it then to fix it with Mexican water supplies

29 Concentration Equivalents Concentration Description PPM* PPT DE % SG Pure Water % IID Drain Water 4, % Desal Reject Brine 15, % Ocean 35, % Cortez Sea 37, % Salton Sea 51, % STP 267, % Pure Salt 1,000,000 1, % *1 PPM = 1 mg/l = 1 mg/kg Salt Primer

30 Percent Brine Concentration Path Entrain NaCl Carnalite Epsom SaltCake

31 Evaporation Rates Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec FW Normal year evaporation (inches) at various concentrations (expressed as percent magnesium)