Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development Energy & Resources. Bioenergy as a means to support the UN SDGs Dr. Birka Wicke

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1 Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development Energy & Resources Bioenergy as a means to support the UN SDGs Dr. Birka Wicke Energy Transition in Transport Copernicus -Institute Brussels, of Sustainable 21 March 2018 Development

2 Paris agreement

3 Bioenergy is expected to play a significant role in achieving climate change mitigation Schleussner et al

4 Impacts of bioenergy use extend beyond energy system and climate 4

5 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development 5

6 17 goals & 169 targets 6

7 Bioenergy and the SDGs Bioenergy can lead to environmental, economic and social impacts 7

8 Aim of study Quantify the trade-offs and synergies between the sustainable development goals and bioenergy in 2030 (and 2050) under different scenarios global level 8

9 Relevant SDGs Müller et al. (2015); Fritsche & Iriarte (2015); Fritsche et al (2018); De Bruin (2016) 9

10 Links between SDGs Direct & indirect Short-term & long-term Local & global Bioenergy 10

11 Forest area Agricultural land area Bioenergy yield Population living below poverty line Welfare inequality Eutrophication Food prices Cereal yield Non-renew. energy use GHGs from energy system Bioenergy LUC emissions Energy rel. emissions/cap. Economic GHG intensity Freight Indicators for bioenergy Non-GHG air pollutants Population using solid fuels Water footprint Employment in bioenergy sector Energy GHG emission intensity Share renewables Electricity price Traded biomass Energy supply diversity 11

12 Quantification with IMAGE model PBL

13 Scenarios describe alternative trends in society and its use of resources, and assess their implications 13

14 Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) 14

15 Scenarios SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 Baseline Climate Change Mitigation (CCM, 2 C) Model does not solve Each scenario is run once with bioenergy & once without bioenergy to isolate the effect of bioenergy 15

16 Isolating effect of bioenergy SSPs Baseline /CCM Bio/ NoBio SSP1 Base Bio NoBio Difference is effect caused by bioenergy CCM Bio NoBio Difference is effect caused by bioenergy 16

17 Interpretation of results SDG Indicator Color indicates synergy/trade-off Trade-off Synergy Isolation of bioenergy effect 17

18 SSP1 - Sustainability Baseline 18

19 SSP2 Middle of the road Baseline 19

20 SSP3 Regional rivalry Baseline 20

21 SSP2 Middle of the road Baseline Climate Change Mitigation 21

22 Bioenergy can support multiple SDGs Synergies & trade-offs largely depend on bioenergy implementation & socioeconomic development SSP1: Mostly synergies SSP3: Mostly trade-offs SSP2: Mostly synergies, but less strong than in SSP1; large differences between baseline & CCM 22

23 Preconditions Scenarios help us understand the necessary preconditions under which bioenergy can support the SDGs Land use change LUC burdens proceed benefits time horizon Deforestation/Land with high carbon stocks is unacceptable 23

24 Study limitations Lack of (possibility to quantify) some indicators Model implementation Coverage Climate/energy aspects high Social aspects low Global assessment regional differences 24

25 Take home messages Bioenergy can support multiple SDGs But Trade-offs and synergies strongly depend on bioenergy implementation method & assumed socio-economic development LUC is an important concern (for short-term) Further improvements of model and analysis capabilities (especially in terms of social aspects) are needed 25

26 Thank you! Contact information Birka Wicke Collaborators Jabbe van Leeuwen Jeroen de Bruin Vassilis Daioglou Detlef van Vuuren 26