By Rick Breuner Fiber Industry Consultants. FRA West Spokane, Washington

Transcription

1 Wood Pellets of the World By Rick Breuner Fiber Industry Consultants May11 11, 2011 FRA West Spokane, Washington

2 World Pellet Overview World Pellets Capacity, Production, Estimated Demand North American Pellet Capacity Comments U.S. North West Pellet Capacity & Production Questions

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5 EU Target: By % reduction in green house gas emissions 20% of energy consumption from renewables 20% reduction in primary energy use Source: Wood Resources International

6 World Demand Global wood pellet production in 2008 was 11 million tons and was expected to double by Given the EU mandate, the 2020 world demand last year was projected at 100 million tons of Bioil and wood pellets. Another source identified eight EU countries of having an additional demand for 2020 to meet the guidelines of 116 million tons with Germany, France, U.K and Spain accounting for 80%.

7 2,239,000, 619,000, 9% 3% 3% World Pellet Capacity MMTons 6,189,400, 25% 15,557,000, 63% Source: BioEnergy Magazine 12/09 North A Europe Asia Southern H

8 850,500 53,000,, 9% 1% 2,020, , 20% 2009 World Pellet Production 9.9 Million Tons 6,947,450, 70% 40% Operating Rate Bioenergy Magazine January 2010 North A Europe Asia Southern H

9 850,500 53,000,, 9% 1% 2,020, , 20% 2009 World Pellet Production 9.9 Million Tons Regional Operating 6,947,450, 70% 40% Operating Rate Bioenergy Magazine January 2010 Rate, % 33% 45% 38% 9% 2010 North A Europe Asia Southern H

10 4,348,200, 14% 649,000, 2% 2011 World Pellet Capacity 8,404, , % Million Tons % 16,937,550,, 56% Bioenergy Map January North A Europe Asia Southern H

11 900, World Pellet Plant Capacity Ranking by Region in Tonnes 800, , , , , ,000 Source: Bioenergy Magazine Map 200, ,000 0 USA Canada Europe Asia Southern Hemisphere

12 900,000 World Pellet Plant Capacity Ranking in Tonnes Largest 50 Pellet Plants 800, , , , , , , , Vyborgsky Cellulose Leningrad, Russia 2. Georgia Biomass Waycross, GA 3. Green Circle Cottondale FL 4. Biowood Averoy, Norway 5. Pinnacle Pellets Burns Lake, BC 6. German Pellets Wismar, Germany 7. German Pellets Herbrechtingen, Germany 8. Plantation Energy Albany, Australia 9. Pinnacle Pellet Strathnaver BC 10. Pacific Bioenergy Prince George BC 11. Pinnacle Pellet Inc Williams Lake BC 12. Ankit Tumkur, India 13. Houston Pellet Inc Houston BC 14. Woodox Leipzig, Germany 15. Lee Energy Crossville AL USA Canada Europe Asia Southern Hemisphere

13 World Pellet Capacity Ranking by Country Tons Per Year 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 32% 63% 44% World Pellet Plant Capacity Million Tons Million Tons Percent Change 23% Source: Bioenergy Magazine 1,000,000 20% 30% 267% 40% Capacity Ton/Year 2011 Capacity Ton/Year

14 World Pellet Plants 2009 & 2011 Ranking by Country World Total Pellet Plants Source: Bioenergy Magazine & Map 2009 Plants 2011 Plants

15 9,000,000 8,000,000 North American Pellet Capacity Tonnes ,000,000 6,000,000 Source: USDA North America s Wood Pellet Sector 2011 Bioenergy Map 5,000,000 Average Annual Percentage Change 37% 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, U.S. WEST U.S. NORTH U.S. SOUTH U.S. NORTHEAST CANADA EAST OF ROCKIES CANADA BC & ALBERTA

16 3,000,000 North American Pellet Capacity Tonnes ,500,000 Average Annual Percentage Change 37% 2,000,000 Source: USDA North America s Wood Pellet Sector 1,500,000 & 2011 Bioenergy e Map 1,000, , U.S. WEST U.S. SOUTH CANADA EAST OF ROCKIES U.S. NORTH U.S. NORTHEAST CANADA BC & ALBERTA

17 Query: A huge Demand, Why isn t Production greater? Fiber Costs Incremental demand going to Whole Logs Oversupply of pellet Capacity with all the new plants Economic crisis in Europe Infrastructure Required

18 Price Competition Recent Prices Euro/Tonne European Union Residential $/Ton Commercial/ Industrial North America Residential

19 US U.S. Pi Price Competition One ton of wood pellets = 3.36 barrels of $107/barrel* = $360 per short ton 19.4 million BTU of Natural $4.7/MMBtu* = $91 per short ton (1) * average U S April price * average U.S. April price (1) commercial price, residential about twice that level

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25 New Old Technology Development - Torrefaction Torrefaction significantly improves the utility of wood pellets. By cooking wood pellets in a low oxygen environment at about 400 degrees Fahrenheit for a period, the hemi-celloses are driven off and moisture further reduced. Benefits: 1. about 30% more dense 2. 70% more energy per unit weight 3. almost impervious to water 4. more structurally stable to reduce dusting 5. successfully been 50% co-fired with coal 6. minimum handling alterations are required 7. produce 94% less CO2 when burned than coal. After the 59% CO2 tax in Sweden, Torrified wood pellets are equal to the cost of coal energy.

26 3,000,000 North American Pellet Capacity Tonnes ,500, ,000,000 1,500,000 Average Annual Percentage Change 37% Source: USDA North America s 1,000, , U.S. WEST U.S. NORTH U.S. SOUTH U.S. NORTHEAST CANADA EAST OF ROCKIES CANADA BC & ALBERTA U.S. North West Pellet Capacity The U.S. West (twelve states) 2011 wood pellet capacity was registered as 1.1 million tons. The 21 mills in the North West ( Washington, Oregon, Idaho and Montana) have a capacity of 647 thousand tons. The ½ million ton balance is in the other eight Western states

27 Pacific North West Pellet Plants The survey of NW pellet mills was completed last fall. Since then three Atlas pellet plants have closed and Malheur Lumber in John Day, Oregon, has started up a plant with Bear Mountain handling the marketing. Capacity Production Ops Rate M tons/yr M tons/yr % % Change (19) (3)

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29 FRA Western Division Pellet Mills Estimated Capacity & Production 2011 Capacity Production Operating MTons/Year MTons/Year Rate, % Lower Columbia & Puget Sound % 1 Manke Lbr, Tacoma, WA 2 West Oregon WP, Columbia City, OR 3 West Oregon WP, Banks, OR 4 Bear Mtn, Cascade Locks, OR Willamette Valley % 5 Bear Mtn, Brownsville, OR 6 Roseburg FP, Dillard, OR 7 Dailey WP, Reedsport, OR 8 Frank Lumber, Mill City, OR East of Cascades % 9 Pacific Pellet, Redmond, OR 10 Natures Pellet, Prineville, OR 11 Malheur Lumber, John Day, OR 12 Blue Mtn Lbr, Reith, OR 13 Lignetics, Sandpoint, ID 14 North Idaho Energy, Moyie Springs, ID 15 Eureka Pellet, Eureka, MT 16 Land & Resource Mgt, Kalispell, MT 17 Eureka Pellet, Superior, MT 18 Rocky Canyon Pellet, Grangeville, ID 19 QB Corporation, Salmon, ID 20 Treasure Valley FP, Mountain Home, ID 21 Redi-Fuel, Ovid, ID Total NW %

30 Wood Pellets of the World Questions Rick Breuner References: fs fed rp656 pdf pellets-%e2%80%93-things-to-consider/ thi t id