CITY OF EMERYVILLE MEMORANDUM. Sustainable Communities Strategy Initial Vision Scenario

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1 CITY OF EMERYVILLE MEMORANDUM DATE: April 5, 2011 TO: FROM: SUBJECT: Patrick D. O Keeffe, City Manager Planning and Building Department Sustainable Communities Strategy Initial Vision Scenario RECOMMENDATION/REQUESTED ACTION Approve submittal of the attached letter from the Mayor to ABAG/MTC on the Initial Vision Scenario for the regional Sustainable Communities Strategy. BACKGROUND In 2008 the state legislature adopted SB375, which mandated regional councils of government to prepare Sustainable Communities Strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. SB375 directed the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to set goals for the regions. CARB set goals for the Bay Area of reducing greenhouse gas emissions from cars and light trucks by 7% per capita by 2020 and by 15% per capita by compared to SB375 also requires the Sustainable Communities Strategies to plan for housing all of the region s employees, to reduce commuting. A Joint Policy Committee (JPC) was formed to develop the Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) for the Bay Area. The JPC consists of representatives from the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) and the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC), and it is working with the Bay Area Air Quality Management District (BAAQMD) and the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC). The SCS has a time horizon of. The Regional Transportation Plan (RTP), which MTC adopts for four years, and the Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA), which ABAG adopts for eight years, must be consistent with the Sustainable Communities Strategy. General Plan Housing Elements, which are also good for eight years, must be consistent with the RHNA numbers and the SCS. Proposed projects for the Regional Transportation Plan are due to the Alameda County Transportation Commission by April 12, 2011, for forwarding to MTC. The State will set the region s housing needs total in October The RTP and SCS are due to be adopted by ABAG and MTC in April The next Housing Element, covering , is due in September The JPC has released the Initial Vision Scenario (IVS) as a starting point to develop the SCS. After local jurisdictions and the public respond to the Initial Vision Scenario, detailed scenarios will be developed and analyzed for effectiveness in meeting the

2 Sustainable Communities Strategy Initial Vision Scenario April 5, 2011 Page 2 of 5 SB375 goals and other targets. These scenarios will be presented to local governments and the public in the fall. ABAG and MTC plan to identify a preferred scenario by January 2012, complete environmental impact review, and adopt the Sustainable Communities Strategy in April The Initial Vision Scenario reduces greenhouse gas emissions from cars and light trucks by 12% by. To reach the goal of 15%, future scenarios will concentrate jobs in Priority Development Areas, price parking and HOV lanes, and further increase transit frequencies. DISCUSSION This scenario assumes regional job growth at 50,000 jobs per year, to a total of 4.5 million Bay Area jobs in, up from 3.3 million in. That is five times the rate of job growth in the past 20 years, and is closer to the region s job growth rate in the 1960s. ABAG s report states that this is because the Bay area s economic base is concentrated in sectors likely to lead the nation in job growth, such as professional services and research. Because the SCS must provide housing for all of the region s workers, the employment total drives the housing total. The SCS assumes a regional population growth of 2.1 million over the next 25 years, from 7.3 million in to 9.4 million in. At a meeting on March 18, 2011 with Alameda County planning directors, ABAG Director Ken Kirkey noted that recently released Census data shows that growth was slower than expected from 2000 to, and said that future scenarios might reduce growth assumptions. The Initial Vision Scenario is unconstrained. It assumes that local policies will be adjusted to accommodate the growth goals. It also assumes that resources are available for transit, other transportation investments, neighborhood infrastructure, affordable housing, and mitigation of Diesel emissions impacts on residential units along major bus corridors. It assumes increased frequency of buses and BART. Future scenarios will take these constraints into account. To build on existing transit and keep growth within the existing urban footprint, the Initial Vision Scenario places 28% of the growth in Santa Clara County, 24% in Alameda County, and 37% in San Mateo, San Francisco and Contra Costa Counties combined. Within each county, ABAG distributed residential units first to locally identified Priority Development Areas, then according to the Place Type of each Priority Development Area (based on the MTC Station Area Planning Manual), then near transit, then in mixed-use corridors with transit and infill potential. The attached maps show Emeryville s Priority Development Area and a cross-hatched band along San Pablo Avenue. The IVS adds significant growth to Emeryville s Priority Development Area because it is a City Center Place Type ( City Centers are commuter hubs), it has major bus lines and is near a BART station, and it is on the San Pablo Avenue corridor.

3 Sustainable Communities Strategy Initial Vision Scenario April 5, 2011 Page 3 of 5 ANALYSIS In Emeryville, the IVS sets a goal of 7,490 new households during the 25-year period between and, for a total of 13,260 households in. The General Plan Environmental Impact Report projects 9,310 households at build out in 2030, up from 5,570 in If this projection assumed in the General Plan were continued in a straight line to, it would result in 10,160 households. This is 3,100 fewer households than the IVS. Put another way, the IVS anticipates a population growth rate over the next 25 years that is more than 50% higher than the growth rate accommodated by the General Plan. In fact, according to the IVS, Emeryville s population would grow by 130%, the third fastest growing city in the region (behind Brisbane at 208% and Colma at 198%). Concerning jobs, the IVS projects 25,479 jobs in Emeryville in, while the General Plan projects 30,000 jobs in 2030, up from 20,552 in If projected in a straight line, the General Plan would accommodate about 32,150 jobs in. Thus, the IVS projects about 57% less job growth than the General Plan. To accommodate the increased population growth and reduced employment growth envisioned by the IVS, the General Plan would need to be amended to allow residential development in areas now slated for nonresidential growth, and/or to increase residential densities. CONCLUSION ABAG and MTC have asked local governments to respond to the following questions: Is the proposed place type appropriate for your Priority Development Area(s)? Given the availability of resources, is the proposed urban scale, mix of uses, and expected household growth appropriate? What transportation improvements would help support those Priority Development Area(s) in your jurisdiction? What additional funding would be needed to support housing growth? If the Initial Vision Scenario growth estimate is too high, should some of the growth be shifted to another part of your jurisdiction, elsewhere in the County, or elsewhere in the region? What are the challenges for your local jurisdiction to attract and retain jobs that match your local workforce? Staff offers the following thoughts and recommendations for responses to these questions to be set forth in the attached draft letter from the Mayor:

4 Sustainable Communities Strategy Initial Vision Scenario April 5, 2011 Page 4 of 5 1. Priority Development Area. The City Center place type fits Emeryville, but Emeryville s projected growth is in the middle of the City Center ranges of total dwelling units and net density of new housing. The number of units in Emeryville in the Initial Vision Scenario is closer to the top of the range, and should be reduced. 2. Emeryville Rate and Mix. The scale is too large, the mix is too residential, and the residential growth is too high. In order to accommodate the proposed growth scenario for Emeryville, the Council would need to amend the General Plan to increase the density of the residential and mixed-use change areas east of the railroad tracks, especially at the San Pablo/40 th bus hub, and rezone some of the Mixed Use with Non-Residential land to Mixed Use with Residential. Most of the residential and mixed-use sites in the city would need to utilize the density bonus allowance. These changes to the growth scenario assumed in the General Plan would cause long-term fiscal instability. The General Plan growth assumes both commercial and residential growth with a balance that promotes fiscal stability. 3. Transportation. The primary basis for growth in the San Pablo Avenue corridor would be vastly improved bus service along, to and across San Pablo Avenue, including restored and extended bus routes, at least doubling bus frequencies, and complete bus shelters at all AC Transit and Emery Go-Round bus stops. A fixed-route shuttle or streetcar serving Emeryville, Berkeley and North Oakland could also support development in this corridor. Transportation assistance should also include streetscape and bikeway improvements including pedestrian-bicycle overcrossings, parking meters, and intersection improvements. Specifically, our proposed Regional Transportation Plan projects (I-80 pedestrian-bicycle bridge, Powell Street bridge widening with bus bay, I-80 eastbound Powell Street off-ramp and I-80-Ashby interchange) and programs (parking management, rail safety, pedestrian and bicycle expansion, lifeline transportation, transit enhancements and community based transportation) would help support development in Emeryville s Priority Development Area. 4. Additional Funding. As stated in a staff response to an ABAG questionnaire about Priority Development Areas in April, Emeryville needs support in providing infrastructure including parks acquisition, cleanup and construction; water, wastewater and stormwater plan updates; Emeryville Center for the Arts; and Emeryville Center of Community Life including schools. To expand growth beyond what was initially envisioned, additional public safety facilities would be needed. Redevelopment is a major tool to implement SB375 and should be retained. There will also need to be some sort of funding to form public-private partnerships with developers to build dense mixed-use projects along and near San Pablo Avenue. This includes funding for market-rate housing and employment uses as well as affordable housing. Redevelopment funding is a major tool to implement these partnerships for transit focused development.

5 Sustainable Communities Strategy Initial Vision Scenario April 5, 2011 Page 5 of 5 5. Regional Distribution. Emeryville s new General Plan made substantial upward revisions to the amount of growth we could accommodate. Other cities with Priority Development Areas and Opportunity Areas should be encouraged to match our assumptions. Staff recommends that Emeryville s response question the assumption that Bay Area employment will grow at five times the job growth experienced in the last 20 years. An optimistic projection would be to double the growth rate of the last 20 years. Because the housing needs estimate is based on the job growth estimate, this change would reduce the region s housing needs assumption for use in the detailed scenarios this summer. This would bring Emeryville housing growth back in line with the fiscally balanced General Plan policies. 6. Matching Workforce. In Emeryville the challenge is attracting residents to match the workforce. Submitted by: Diana Keena Associate Planner Reviewed by: Charles S. Bryant Director of Planning and Building APPROVED AND FORWARDED TO THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF EMERYVILLE: Patrick D. O Keeffe City Manager Attachments: 1. Regional and County Maps of Initial Vision Scenario 2. Cover letter from ABAG and MTC Executive Directors 3. Initial Vision Scenario Overview 4. Draft Response Letter from Mayor

6 Napa County Sonoma County Solano County Marin County Contra Costa County Place Type San Francisco Regional Center City Center Urban Neighborhood Alameda County Suburban Center Transit Town Center Mixed-Use Corridor Transit Neighborhood Rural Town Center Rural Mixed-Use Corridor San Mateo County Employment Center Priority Conservation Area El Camino Real Corridor San Pablo Avenue Corridor Telegraph Avenue International Boulevard Mission Boulevard Corridor Source: Street Base Map 2006 TeleAtlas, Inc. All rights reserved. Protected areas data from California Protected Areas Database ( ABAG GIS/March 2011 Scale: Miles Kilometers P l a c e T y p e f o r P r i o r i t y D e ve l o p m e n t A r e a s and Oppor tunity Areas Santa Clara County

7 Albany Berkeley Contra Costa County Emeryville Piedmont Oakland Alameda Dublin San Leandro Priority Development Area Place Type Livermore Opportunity Area Pleasanton Regional Center City Center Urban Neighborhood Hayward Suburban Center Transit Town Center Alameda County Mixed-Use Corridor Transit Neighborhood Union City Rural Town Center Rural Mixed-Use Corridor Employment Center El Camino Real Corridor San Pablo Avenue Corridor Telegraph Avenue International Boulevard Mission Boulevard Corridor Fremont Priority Conservation Area Newark Urban Footprint Source: Street Base Map 2006 TeleAtlas, Inc. All rights reserved. Protected areas data from California Protected Areas Database ( ABAG GIS/March 2011 Scale: 0 Miles Kilometers San Mateo County Santa Clara County Place Type for Priority Development Areas and Opportunity Areas in Alameda County

8 To: MTC Planning Committee, ABAG Administrative Date: March 4, 2011 Committee Fr: ABAG and MTC Executive Directors Re: Initial Vision Scenario The Initial Vision Scenario starts the conversation on the Sustainable Communities Strategy among local jurisdictions, regional agencies, and other interested stakeholders. This scenario proposes a future development pattern that depends upon a strong economy, sufficient funding for affordable housing and supportive public infrastructure and transportation investments. The proposed distribution of housing focuses on areas close to transit that have been identified by local jurisdictions. This focused growth pattern preserves open space and agricultural land in the Bay Area. This important step in the Sustainable Communities Strategy process is designed to solicit comment primarily from local elected officials and their constituents. This input will inform the development of the detailed scenarios to be drafted by the summer of Through integrated regional land use, housing, and transportation investments, the Initial Vision Scenario proposes a sustainable pattern of regional growth that maximizes the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions while accommodating the entire region s housing need through. In this scenario, which is unconstrained in terms of financial and other resources to support housing growth, Priority Development Areas (PDAs), Infill Opportunity Areas (areas not designated as PDAs, but that share many of the same attributes), and transit corridors accommodate a major share of housing growth. The development of the transportation network in the region by is aligned with those areas. As such the transportation network for the Initial Vision Scenario is based on Transportation, but also includes improved transit headways to serve increased growth in PDAs and Infill Opportunity Areas. The attached maps show the Priority Development and Infill Opportunity Areas for the region and for each county. The Initial Vision Scenario relies on input from local jurisdictions and the characteristics of the places they identified for the distribution of growth. The Initial Vision Scenario differs from previous forecasts (Projections 2007, 2009, 2011) in identifying places to accommodate an additional demand for 267,000 households beyond Projections 2011 so that the current phenomenon of in-commuting from adjoining regions does not worsen in the future. These prior forecasts were derived from Census Tracts. This scenario was constructed utilizing a detailed place-based approach, meaning that growth was distributed in specific neighborhoods or geographic locations based on their characteristics. Between November and January 2011, MTC and ABAG received input from local planners on the capacity for sustainable growth in PDAs and new Infill Opportunity Areas to supplement the information gathered through the PDA Assessment. To the extent possible, MTC and ABAG staff used local estimates of

9 growth to meet the housing target. However, this scenario includes additional housing units in some PDAs or Infill Opportunity Areas beyond the number submitted by local jurisdictions. The Initial Vision Scenario assumes a growth of 903,000 households up to 3.6 million, and 1.2 million jobs up to 4.5 million by compared to today. About 95 percent of new households are accommodated within the urban footprint. PDAs and Infill Opportunity Areas include about two thirds of household growth in the region. At the county level, San Francisco, Santa Clara, Alameda and Contra Costa are projected to absorb a major share of the total increase in the number of households, at nearly 80%. They also absorb the majority of the region s job growth, also nearly 80%. It should be noted that the Initial Vision Scenario does not substantially reallocate jobs to PDAs and assumes continued job growth in employment campuses dispersed throughout the region. Major cities take the lead in the projected growth of housing in the region. San Jose, San Francisco, and Oakland are projected to produce one third of the housing needed by by building upon their regional centers and intensifying transit corridor development. At the same time, medium-sized cities that range from city centers to transit towns (Fremont, Santa Rosa, Berkeley, Hayward, Richmond, Concord, and Santa Clara) would accommodate 17 percent of the regional total. When assessed against the performance targets adopted by the regional agencies, the Initial Vision Scenario reflects significant progress towards the sustainability and equity targets of the region. The Initial Vision Scenario meets the regional housing target and achieves an incremental improvement over our current regional plans with the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) per capita by 12 percent in. Thus, it falls short of the 15% GHG per capita reduction target in established by California Air Resources Board. As expected, we will need to evaluate other infrastructure and transportation demand management strategies in order for the region to achieve the GHG target. The performance of the Initial Vision Scenario on healthy and safe communities, equitable access, and transportation system effectiveness targets is mixed, indicating some improvements over previous trends and previous forecasts. These results point to the need for additional policies and strategies to meet the regional performance targets. In particular, strategies that will encourage more job growth in PDAs and near transit nodes would substantially improve the performance of the targets, especially the greenhouse gas emissions target. These strategies will be the subject of the upcoming detailed scenarios analysis. The complete report on the Initial Vision Scenario with detailed analysis, data, and maps will be released for public review and presented at your March 11, 2011 joint meeting. Ezra Rapport Steve Heminger J:\COMMITTE\Planning Committee\2011\March11\Initial Vision Scenario - Memo Final dkv1.doc 2

10 Initial VisioII!md-~~~,m~~r(;r~ Overview March 11, 201 1

11 Overview of the Initial Vision Scenario In 2008, Senate Bill 375 (Steinberg) was enacted. The state law requires that our Regional Transportation Plan contain a Sustainable Communities Strategy (together, Plan Bay Area) that integrates land-use planning and transportation planning. For the 25-year period covered by Plan Bay Area, the Sustainable Communities Strategy must identify areas within the nine-county Bay Area sufficient to house all of the region s population, including all economic segments of the population. It must also attempt to coordinate the resulting land-use pattern with the transportation network so as to reduce per capita greenhouse-gas emissions from personal-use vehicles (automobiles and light trucks). The Initial Vision Scenario for Plan Bay Area is a first-cut proposal that identifies the areas where the growth in the region s population might be housed. This proposal builds upon a rich legacy of integrative planning in the Bay Area. For over a decade, the region and its local governments have been working together to locate new housing in compact forms near jobs, close to services and amenities, and adjacent to transit so that the need to travel long distances by personal vehicle is reduced. Compact development within the existing urban footprint also takes development pressure off the region s open space and agricultural lands. We have referred to this type of efficient development as focused growth, and the regional program that supports it is called FOCUS. (See Table 1.) Planning for New Housing and Supporting Infrastructure The Initial Vision Scenario is constructed by looking first at the Bay Area s regional housing needs over the next 25 years. This analysis was performed using demographic projections of household growth. It is not a forecast of the region, and does not take into account many factors that constrain the region s supply of new housing units, such as limitations in supporting infrastructure, affordable housing subsidies, and market factors. The principal purpose of the Initial Vision Scenario is to articulate how the region could potentially grow over time in a sustainable manner, and to orient policy and program development to achieve the first phases of implementation. Under the assumptions of the Initial Vision Scenario, the Bay Area is anticipated to grow by over 2 million people, from about 7,350,000 today to about 9,430,000 by the year. This population growth would require around 902,000 new housing units. The Initial Vision Scenario proposes where these new units might be accommodated. (See Tables 2-12.) This Initial Vision Scenario is designed around places for growth identified by local jurisdictions. These places are defined by their character, scale, density, and the expected housing units to be built over the long term. Using place types, areas with similar characteristics and physical and social qualities, ABAG asked local governments to 1

12 identify general development aspirations for areas within their jurisdictions. These places were mostly the Priority Development Areas (PDAs) already identified through the FOCUS program. They also included additional Opportunity Areas, some similar to PDAs and others with different sustainability criteria. Based on local visions, plans and growth estimates, regional agencies distributed housing growth across the region, focusing on PDAs and Opportunity Areas. ABAG in some cases supplemented the local forecast with additional units based on the typical characteristics of the relevant locally-selected place type. ABAG also distributed additional units to take advantage of significant existing and planned transit investment, and it assigned some units to locally identified areas that present regionally significant development opportunities for greater density. The Initial Vision Scenario accommodates 97 percent of new households within the existing urban footprint. Only 3 percent of the forecasted new homes require greenfield development (building on previously undeveloped lands). Priority Development Areas and Opportunity Areas contain about 70 percent of the total growth (743,000 households). Among counties, three take the lion s share of growth: Santa Clara, Alameda and Contra Costa absorb a little over two-thirds of the total. These same counties also are anticipated to take the majority of the region s job growth (64 percent). (See Tables ) The region s three major cities do a lot of the heavy lifting. Thirty-two percent of the forecast and proposed housing growth occurs in San José, San Francisco and Oakland. Seventeen percent goes to medium-sized cities like Fremont, Santa Rosa, Berkeley, Hayward, Concord, and Santa Clara. The analysis embodied in the Initial Vision Scenario is founded on the location of housing. Employment forecasting and distribution in this Scenario is not directly related to land use policy. Employment location can have a strong influence on travel demand, vehicle miles traveled, and vehicle greenhouse-gas emissions. In light of these factors and considering economic competitiveness, transit sustainability, and a balanced relationship between employment and housing, regional agencies will be embarking, with local partners, on further analysis regarding appropriate employment locations in relation to future housing growth and the transportation network. This will inform the development of the detailed scenarios. The Initial Vision Scenario reflects the transportation investments from MTC s current Regional Transportation (known as the Transportation Plan). To support the increased housing growth, it also includes some tentatively proposed improvements to the region s transit network. These include increased frequencies on over 70 local bus and several express bus routes, improved rail headways on BART, ebart, Caltrain, Muni Metro, VTA light-rail, and Altamont Commuter Express, and more dedicated bus lanes in San Francisco and Santa Clara counties, all resulting in overall growth in transit capacity. However, the Bay Area s transit system is financially unsustainable with operators unable to afford to run the current service levels into the future, much less expanded headways contemplated under the Initial Vision Scenario. MTC s Transit Sustainability Project will propose a more sustainable transit system for inclusion in the detailed scenarios to be tested. 2

13 Measuring Performance Against Targets The Initial Vision Scenario results in a 12 percent per capita greenhouse gas emissions reduction from personal-use vehicles in, compared to a 2005 base year. This reduction falls short of the region s state-mandated 15 percent per capita greenhouse gas emissions reduction target. It s clear that additional strategies will need to be employed if we want to attain the greenhouse gas targets, and other targets previously adopted by ABAG and MTC. MTC and ABAG have adopted a set of Plan Bay Area performance targets to describe in specific, measureable terms the region s commitment and progress toward the three E principles of sustainability (Economy, Environment, and Equity). The Initial Vision Scenario meets some regional targets, including accommodating all the projected housing need by income level (in other words, no more in-commuting by workers who live in other regions); reducing the financial burden of housing and transportation on low-income households by providing more affordable housing; and housing the majority of new development within the existing urban core. Also, more residents are projected to ride transit, walk and bike more than existing residents because much of the new housing is located close to services, amenities and jobs, and adjacent to transit in complete communities. (See Figure 1 for the target results.) The Initial Vision Scenario brings more residents into the region, thus increasing the total amount of travel. New residents will still drive for some trips. Even though vehicle miles traveled per capita in the Bay Area are projected to be lower in the Initial Vision Scenario than it is today, total miles driven within the region are projected to increase. With more Bay Area residents and more miles driven within the region, we can also expect an increase in the total number of injuries and fatalities. Health impacts from exposure to particulate emissions from automobiles and trucks are likewise projected to worsen with more driving; however, state and federal efforts to clean up heavy duty truck engines will more than off set the increases from automobiles, resulting in overall reductions sooty particulate pollution. Finally, it must be said that while bringing more people into the Bay Area will increase the amount of driving and collisions within the region, it is still a net win in the larger sense. The amount of overall driving and greenhouse gas emissions statewide is certainly less than if the new residents were commuting to Bay Area jobs from communities in neighboring regions that do not offer such amenities. Next Steps The Initial Vision Scenario is offered as basis for discussion with local governments, stakeholders, and the general public about how the Bay Area can accommodate all its population growth over the next quarter century. It is by no means a fait accompli. Over the next several months we will seek input through elected official briefings, local government staff discussions, and public workshops. The comments received will assist ABAG and MTC in developing and testing a range of detailed scenarios that achieve the greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. 3

14 The purpose of the SCS is to forge consensus in the Bay Area on a preferred long-term regionwide growth pattern. Under SB 375, local governments are explicitly not required to update their general plans in accordance with the SCS. The SCS does not carry the same authority as Regional Housing Needs Allocation but it will inform the distribution of housing at the local level. The adopted SCS land development pattern will help guide regional policies and investments that are made pursuant to the Regional Transportation Plan. These regional policies and investments are intended to create financial and other incentives to implement the adopted land pattern in the SCS. ABAG is currently working with its Housing Methodology Committee to develop a methodology for distributing regional eight-year housing targets to Bay Area local jurisdictions; the methodology will be adopted by ABAG later this year. The Initial Vision Scenario kicks off a two-year conversation among local jurisdictions and regional agencies on what ultimately will become the Sustainable Communities Strategy, as a part of Plan Bay Area. During that time, the regional agencies will engage local agencies and the public to help identify and assess several detailed Sustainable Communities Strategy scenarios that demonstrate ways that land-use strategies, transportation investments, pricing and other strategies could achieve our adopted goals and targets. The scenarios also will need to address how the Bay Area s land-use plans can assist adaptation to climate change. The Sustainable Communities Strategy will need to coordinate regional agencies initiatives and requirements related to sea-level rise, air quality, and other climate change related issues. These detailed scenarios will lead to selection of a preferred scenario early next year that would include an integrated transportation investment and land-use plan; this plan would also undergo a detailed environmental impact review that local agencies could use to streamline environmental assessments of their own local development projects as provided for in SB 375. Finally, the ABAG and MTC boards would be asked to adopt the complete Plan Bay Area, including a Sustainable Communities Strategy, by April (See Figure 2.) The regional agencies look forward to further dialogue on these assumptions with our local government and transportation partners, stakeholders, and the general public. Attachments 4

15 Table 1 San Francisco Bay Area Demographic Overview - Employed Residents Scenario Population (Actual) 2,669,800 7,348,300 3,152,400 3,271,300 Current Regional Plans + 635,400 +1,717, ,600 +1,129,200 PDA Increment + 266, , , ,600 Initial Vision Scenario + 902,200 +2,081,600 +1,046,600 +1,222,800 Note: Current Regional Plans refers to MTC s adopted Transportation Plan, as well as ABAG s Projections 2009, which was updated to reflect new economic forecasts. Table 2A Initial Vision Scenario Total and Household by County County Household Alameda 557, , , % Contra Costa 392, , , % Marin 106, ,124 10, % Napa 51,260 56,061 4, % San Francisco 346, ,794 90, % San Mateo 264, ,337 93, % Santa Clara 613, , , % Solano 148, ,776 39, % Sonoma 188, ,373 42, % Regional Total 2,669,772 3,572, , % Table 2B Initial Vision Scenario Total and Household in Priority Development Areas and Opportunity Areas by County (which is a subset of Table 2A) County Household Alameda 161, , ,600 82% Contra Costa 35, , , % Marin 4,700 10,900 6, % Napa 300 1,900 1, % San Francisco 346, ,800 90,100 26% San Mateo 87, ,700 75,300 86% Santa Clara 78, , , % Solano 4,100 26,600 22, % Sonoma 25,200 55,500 30, % Regional Total 742,800 1,377, ,800 85%

16 Table 3 Initial Vision Scenario Total and Job by County County Job Alameda 675, , , % Contra Costa 345, , , % Marin 129, ,097 21, % Napa 70,136 88,838 18, % San Francisco 544, , , % San Mateo 330, , , % Santa Clara 858,399 1,238, , % Solano 126, ,711 50, % Sonoma 190, ,588 77, % Regional Total 3,271,321 4,493,333 1,222, % * Employment by jurisdiction within each County can be found in Section 3. Table 4 Initial Vision Scenario Alameda County Total and Household by Jurisdiction Alameda County Household Alameda 31,774 39,873 8, % Albany 7,150 9,317 2, % Berkeley 46,146 61,876 15, % Dublin 15,572 32,216 16, % Emeryville 5,770 13,260 7, % Fremont 71,004 98,564 27, % Hayward 46,300 61,283 14, % Livermore 28,662 40,801 12, % Newark 13,530 19,331 5, % Oakland 160, ,019 65, % Piedmont 3,810 3, % Pleasanton 24,034 33,819 9, % San Leandro 31,647 40,447 8, % Union City 20,420 25,900 5, % Alameda County Unincorporated 51,265 63,872 12, % Countywide Total 557, , , %

17 Table 5 Initial Vision Scenario Contra Costa County Total and Household by Jurisdiction Contra Costa County Household Antioch 32,668 46,365 13, % Brentwood 18,250 24,284 6, % Clayton 3,966 4, % Concord 46,296 65,624 19, % Danville 16,574 17,920 1, % El Cerrito 10,422 20,905 10, % Hercules 8,361 17,431 9, % Lafayette 9,589 11,068 1, % Martinez 14,769 16,156 1, % Moraga 5,811 6,995 1, % Oakley 10,835 17,508 6, % Orinda 6,868 8,788 1, % Pinole 7,336 12,623 5, % Pittsburg 20,849 36,261 15, % Pleasant Hill 15,247 17,861 2, % Richmond 37,897 63,439 25, % San Pablo 9,975 13,027 3, % San Ramon 22,061 36,682 14, % Walnut Creek 33,890 40,244 6, % Contra Costa County Unincorporated 61,016 69,382 8, % Countywide Total 392, , , % Table 6 Initial Vision Scenario Marin County Total and Household by Jurisdiction Marin County Household Belvedere % Corte Madera 3,948 4, % Fairfax 3,301 3, % Larkspur 8,036 8, % Mill Valley 6,267 6, % Novato 20,375 21, % Ross % San Anselmo 5,310 5, % San Rafael 23,164 28,209 5, % Sausalito 4,310 4, % Tiburon 3,844 4, % Marin County Unincorporated 26,162 28,900 2, % Countywide Total 106, ,124 10, %

18 Table 7 Initial Vision Scenario Napa County Total and Household by Jurisdiction Napa County Household American Canyon 5,761 7,392 1, % Calistoga 2,140 2, % Napa 29,440 32,019 2, % St. Helena 2,440 2, % Yountville 1,110 1, % Napa County Unincorporated 10,370 10, % Countywide Total 51,260 56,061 4, % Table 8 Initial Vision Scenario San Francisco County Total and Household San Francisco County Household San Francisco 346, ,794 90, % Countywide Total 346, ,794 90, % Table 9 Initial Vision Scenario San Mateo County Total and Household by Jurisdiction San Mateo County Household Atherton 2,490 2, % Belmont 10,740 12,759 2, % Brisbane 1,730 5,324 3, % Burlingame 13,247 19,431 6, % Colma 460 1, % Daly City 31,261 43,095 11, % East Palo Alto 7,780 12,310 4, % Foster City 12,210 13,767 1, % Half Moon Bay 4,440 4, % Hillsborough 3,837 4, % Menlo Park 12,432 17,563 5, % Millbrae 8,308 12,910 4, % Pacifica 14,320 14, % Portola Valley 1,730 1, % Redwood City 29,620 41,032 11, % San Bruno 15,262 21,699 6, % San Carlos 11,909 15,707 3, % San Mateo 38,643 56,678 18, % South San Francisco 20,288 30,522 10, % Woodside 2,029 2, % San Mateo County Unincorporated 21,780 23,830 2, % Countywide Total 264, ,337 93, %

19 Table 10 Initial Vision Scenario Santa Clara County Total and Household by Jurisdiction Santa Clara County Household Campbell 16,892 21,002 4, % Cupertino 19,830 21,588 1, % Gilroy 14,330 22,118 7, % Los Altos 10,670 11,968 1, % Los Altos Hills 3,053 3, % Los Gatos 12,430 13, % Milpitas 19,030 38,758 19, % Monte Sereno 1,229 1, % Morgan Hill 12,399 20,040 7, % Mountain View 32,114 50,348 18, % Palo Alto 26,705 38,692 11, % San Jose 305, , , % Santa Clara 43,403 67,672 24, % Saratoga 11,000 11, % Sunnyvale 54,170 73,425 19, % Santa Clara County Unincorporated 31,604 37,991 6, % Countywide Total 613, , , % Table 11 Initial Vision Scenario Solano County Total and Household by Jurisdiction Solano County Household Benicia 11,329 13,527 2, % Dixon 5,617 8,222 2, % Fairfield 36,061 52,476 16, % Rio Vista 3,540 4,737 1, % Suisun City 9,132 10,548 1, % Vacaville 32,620 41,775 9, % Vallejo 42,043 47,814 5, % Solano County Unincorporated 7,817 8, % Countywide Total 148, ,776 39, %

20 Table 12 Initial Vision Scenario Sonoma County Total and Household by Jurisdiction Sonoma County Household Cloverdale 3,211 4,639 1, % Cotati 2,832 3, % Healdsburg 4,390 5, % Petaluma 21,775 24,713 2, % Rohnert Park 15,718 20,395 4, % Santa Rosa 62,886 83,010 20, % Sebastopol 3,325 3, % Sonoma 4,476 5, % Windsor 8,884 13,809 4, % Sonoma County Unincorporated 60,933 67,505 6, % Countywide Total 188, ,373 42, % Table 13 Initial Vision Scenario Alameda County Total and Job by Jurisdiction Alameda County Job Alameda 25,347 37,416 12, % Albany 4,476 4, % Berkeley 69,782 78,575 8, % Dublin 18,058 33,400 15, % Emeryville 18,198 25,479 7, % Fremont 86, ,484 41, % Hayward 66,135 84,730 18, % Livermore 28,485 46,930 18, % Newark 19,049 21,799 2, % Oakland 187, ,846 67, % Piedmont 2,091 2, % Pleasanton 52,775 70,158 17, % San Leandro 38,532 51,606 13, % Union City 17,919 33,560 15, % Alameda County Unincorporated 40,576 51,320 10, % Countywide Total 675, , , %

21 Table 14 Initial Vision Scenario Contra Costa County Total and Job by Jurisdiction Contra Costa County Job Antioch 18,529 37,530 19, % Brentwood 6,766 7, % Clayton 874 1, % Concord 58,731 88,097 29, % Danville 12,837 13, % El Cerrito 5,154 7,917 2, % Hercules 2,747 5,344 2, % Lafayette 10,087 10, % Martinez 16,919 17, % Moraga 4,603 5, % Oakley 2,720 7,378 4, % Orinda 5,689 6, % Pinole 5,280 6,410 1, % Pittsburg 12,432 24,657 12, % Pleasant Hill 13,815 19,148 5, % Richmond 37,077 57,222 20, % San Pablo 5,403 8,025 2, % San Ramon 36,286 48,905 12, % Walnut Creek 49,309 56,967 7, % Contra Costa County Unincorporated 40,672 48,654 7, % Countywide Total 345, , , % Table 15 Initial Vision Scenario Marin County Total and Job by Jurisdiction Marin County Job Belvedere % Corte Madera 6,482 9,202 2, % Fairfax 1,642 1, % Larkspur 6,708 7, % Mill Valley 8,181 9,900 1, % Novato 25,385 30,753 5, % Ross % San Anselmo 4,754 5, % San Rafael 43,649 50,324 6, % Sausalito 6,543 7,740 1, % Tiburon 3,494 3, % Marin County Unincorporated 21,238 23,166 1, % Countywide Total 129, ,097 21, %

22 Table 16 Initial Vision Scenario Napa County Total and Job by Jurisdiction Napa County Job American Canyon 2,204 4,321 2, % Calistoga 2,748 3, % Napa 34,272 44,565 10, % St. Helena 5,763 6, % Yountville 2,104 2, % Napa County Unincorporated 23,044 27,894 4, % Countywide Total 70,136 88,838 18, % Table 17 Initial Vision Scenario San Francisco County Total and Job by Jurisdiction San Francisco County Job San Francisco 544, , , % Countywide Total 544, , , %

23 Table 18 Initial Vision Scenario San Mateo County Total and Job by Jurisdiction San Mateo County Job Atherton 2,485 2, % Belmont 6,635 11,738 5, % Brisbane 7,991 17,402 9, % Burlingame 21,905 26,728 4, % Colma 3,111 4,310 1, % Daly City 16,772 27,084 10, % East Palo Alto 2,105 6,484 4, % Foster City 13,923 18,560 4, % Half Moon Bay 4,355 5,539 1, % Hillsborough 1,624 2, % Menlo Park 25,145 29,501 4, % Millbrae 6,731 10,238 3, % Pacifica 6,051 7,467 1, % Portola Valley 1,686 1, % Redwood City 48,682 63,717 15, % San Bruno 13,537 17,938 4, % San Carlos 15,024 21,976 6, % San Mateo 43,337 58,896 15, % South San Francisco 41,328 54,485 13, % Woodside 2,381 2, % San Mateo County Unincorporated 45,326 60,869 15, % Countywide Total 330, , , % Table 19 Initial Vision Scenario Santa Clara County Total and Job by Jurisdiction Santa Clara County Job Campbell 22,099 26,897 4, % Cupertino 30,513 35,283 4, % Gilroy 16,652 22,666 6, % Los Altos 10,250 11,511 1, % Los Altos Hills 1,845 1, % Los Gatos 18,275 20,700 2, % Milpitas 46,784 55,624 8, % Monte Sereno % Morgan Hill 12,698 20,806 8, % Mountain View 50,074 64,507 14, % Palo Alto 73,303 78,163 4, % San Jose 342, , , % Santa Clara 103, ,386 35, % Saratoga 6,826 7, % Sunnyvale 72,392 96,408 24, % Santa Clara County Unincorporated 50,304 64,481 14, % Countywide Total 858,399 1,238, , %

24 Table 20 Initial Vision Scenario Solano County Total and Job by Jurisdiction Solano County Job Benicia 14,043 17,485 3, % Dixon 4,330 7,239 2, % Fairfield 42,864 60,579 17, % Rio Vista 1,191 2,327 1, % Suisun City 3,210 4,637 1, % Vacaville 23,422 35,030 11, % Vallejo 28,415 38,258 9, % Solano County Unincorporated 8,853 11,156 2, % Countywide Total 126, ,711 50, % Table 21 Initial Vision Scenario Sonoma County Total and Job by Jurisdiction Sonoma County Job Cloverdale 1,430 1, % Cotati 2,043 2, % Healdsburg 5,111 6,193 1, % Petaluma 26,968 34,870 7, % Rohnert Park 13,566 21,506 7, % Santa Rosa 72, ,005 44, % Sebastopol 4,753 5, % Sonoma 7,005 7, % Windsor 5,154 7,782 2, % Sonoma County Unincorporated 52,015 62,822 10, % Countywide Total 190, ,588 77, %

25 Figure 1 Target Results 1. Reduce CO 2 per capita * autos and light-duty trucks only * -15% -10% -12% Current Regional Plans Initial Vision Scenario 2. House projected regional growth -10% 73% 100% 100% 3a. Reduce premature deaths from PM 2.5 emissions -25% -24% 3b. Reduce PM 10 emissions -30% -13% -10% 4. Reduce injuries and fatalities from collisions 5. Increase daily time spent walking/ biking per person to 15 minutes -50% 18% 21% 68% 72% 100% 6. Direct new non-agricultural development within urban footprint * measured in housing units * 95% 97% 100% 7. Reduce housing + transportation costs as share of low-income households' budgets * preliminary results * -10% 3% -4% 8. Increase gross regional product [GRP] Targets results not yet available Targets results not yet available 90% 9a. Reduce per-trip travel time for nonauto trips -10% 5% 7% 9a. Increase non-auto mode share (alternative target) 19% 20% 25% 9b. Reduce VMT per capita -10% -8% -10% Current Regional Plans Initial Vision Scenario 10a. Increase local road pavement condition index [PCI] to 75 84% 84% 100% 10b. Reduce share of distressed state highway lane-miles to no more than 10% of total lane-miles 10% 35% 35% 50% 10c. Reduce average transit asset age to 50% of useful life 120% 120% Current Regional Plans ` Initial Vision Scenario

26 Figure 2 Sustainable Communities Strategy Planning Process: Phase 2 Detail for 2011* Phase 2: Scenario Planning, Transportation Policy & Investment Dialogue, and Regional Housing Need Allocation Local Government and Public Engagement Targeted Stakeholder Workshops and County Workshops Web Survey ABAG Regional Planning Committee Possible Telephone Poll MTC Policy Advisory Council Regional Advisory Working Group Public Hearing on RHNA Methodology Targeted Stakeholder Workshops and County Workshops Web Activity: Surveys, Updates and Comment Opportunities Executive Working Group Possible Telephone Poll County and Corridor Working Groups Milestones Release Initial Vision Scenario Begin Public Discussion Development of Detailed SCS Scenarios Develop Draft 25-Year Transportation Financial Forecasts and Committed Transportation Funding Policy Call for Transportation Projects and Project Performance Assessment Start Regional Housing Need Allocation (RHNA) Selection of Detailed SCS Scenarios to be evaluated Release Draft RHNA Methodologies Technical Analysis of SCS Scenarios Adopt RHNA Methodology SCS Scenario Results State Dept. of Housing & Community Development Issues Housing Determination Release Preferred SCS Scenario Transportation Policy Investment Dialogue Approve Preferred SCS Scenario for EIR Release Draft RHNA Plan Scenario Planning Transportation Policy and Investment Dialogue Regional Housing Need Allocation Analysis of Equity Issues of Initial Vision Scenario Develop Equity Analysis Methodology for Detailed SCS Scenarios Equity Analysis of SCS Scenarios Equity Analysis Policy Board Action MTC ABAG JPC MTC ABAG JPC MTC ABAG (SCS Scenarios) ABAG Executive Board (RHNA) ABAG Executive Board MTC ABAG JPC MTC ABAG JPC MTC ABAG MTC ABAG ABAG Executive Board (RHNA) February March April May/June July August September October November December/January February *Subject to change Decision Document Release Multi-Year Effort Policy Board Actions Meeting for Discussion/ Public Comment For more information on key actions and decisions and how to get involved, visit OneBayArea.org MTC ABAG JPC JOINT meeting of the ABAG Administrative Committee, the Joint Policy Committee and the MTC Planning Committee for Discussion/Public Comment 2013 MTC ABAG JOINT document release by ABAG and MTC January 2011 ABAG - ABAG Administrative Committee JPC- Joint Policy Committee MTC- MTC Planning Committee Phase 1 Phase 2 Phases 3 & 4 Performance Public RTP/SCS GHG Targets Targets Participation Plan Technical Analysis Regional Housing Need Allocation Adoption Draft EIR Draft RTP/SCS Plan Certify Final EIR Adopt Transportation Air Quality Conformity Analysis Adopt Final RTP/SCS Plan Phase Two Actions/Decisions: Initial Vision Scenario Financial Forecasts Detailed SCS Scenarios RHNA Methodology Preferred SCS Scenario Draft RHNA Plan

27 April 5, 2011 Ezra Rapport Executive Director Association of Bay Area Governments Steve Heminger Executive Director Metropolitan Transportation Commission 101 Eighth Street Oakland CA Subject: Initial Vision Scenario for Sustainable Communities Strategy Dear Mr. Rapport and Mr. Heminger: I am writing to convey the Emeryville City Council s response to the questions posed by ABAG and MTC regarding the Initial Vision Scenario for the Sustainable Communities Strategy. 1. Priority Development Area. The City Center place type fits Emeryville, but Emeryville s projected growth is in the middle of the City Center ranges of total dwelling units and net density of new housing. The number of units in Emeryville in the Initial Vision Scenario is closer to the top of the range, and should be reduced. 2. Emeryville Rate and Mix. The Initial Vision Scenario scale is too large, the mix is too residential, and the residential growth is too high. In Emeryville, the IVS sets a goal of 7,490 new households during the 25-year period between and, for a total of 13,260 households in. The General Plan Environmental Impact Report projects 9,310 households at build out in 2030, up from 5,570 in If this projection assumed in the General Plan were continued in a straight line to, it would result in 10,160 households. This is 3,100 fewer households than the IVS. Put another way, the IVS anticipates a population growth rate over the next 25 years that is more than 50% higher than the growth rate accommodated by the General Plan. In fact, according to the IVS, Emeryville s population would grow by 130%, the third fastest growing city in the region (behind Brisbane at 208% and Colma at 198%).