Louise Simonsson Sofia Landstorp

Transcription

1 Climate change impacts and adaptation of defense installations and facilities Development of a strategic planning decision-making tool for the Swedish Fortifications Agency Louise Simonsson Sofia Landstorp

2 What does sustainability and climate changes entail for defense installations and facilitites? For defense facilities, sustainability becomes the ability to function for today s duties as well as those that may be assigned in the future. Defense installations and facilities need to be managed and located in such a way that disturbances are minimized and military activities can be performed all days year-round. The effects of climate change increase the risk for damage and reduced abilities to function the needs for investments and strategic planning, which thus poses great challenges and possibly costly threats to defense facilities. Considering climate change impacts on the natural and built environment, requirements of knowledgeable adaptation planning should naturally be a priority.

3 Are identified land planning options, strategic investments and liquidations still valid alternatives in a future with a changing climate? Climate change effects can lead to alterations in natural systems with direct effects on infrastructure, buildings and installations as well as societies and human behaviour. The scientific knowledge is limited in regard to interactions and critical levels, especially regarding the specificities of defense installations and facilities. However, assuming certain climate scenarios, predictions could be developed and assessments made with a varying degree of accuracy. There seems to be a knowledge gap on climate change impacts on defense activities and adaptation processes within the military sector, and particularly the interactions with the civil society.

4 The Swedish Fortifications Agency (FortV) interests in climate adaptation FortV manages property comprising defense installations, buildings and land all over Sweden For the FortV the goal is to become resilient to the potential impacts of climate change and to minimize its greenhouse gas emissions. In order to prepare for climate changes the FortV has made it a priority to understand the effects of climate change on both fixed installations and land as changes to environmental resources and man-made infrastructure intensify. Accordingly the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) has been tasked with the development of a strategic framework and planning tool to identify critical climate change related issues in various geographical locations that need to be considered in FortV s climate adaptation planning.

5 What is climate adaptation? Climate adaptation is seen as interrelated with adaptive capacity and vulnerability, where vulnerability is the function of a system s exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity The options for implementing adaptation measures depends on technical and organizational capacity, which defines the availability of adaptation options, as well as legal, economic, cultural and knowledge factors Adaptation is an imperfect process driven by our limited understanding and ability to act. Organizations and individuals may therefore be limited by factors such as variations in risk perceptions, the long-term and distant nature of climate change, problems of linking current and past experiences with future events, lack of knowledge of climate change impacts, and difficulty in assessing and implementing adaptation options

6 What about all the difficulties and uncertainties? There will be options that are more or less feasible and attractive than others. This is very pronounced in the defense context with e.g. severe safety, security, political, economic and practical issues to consider. It is therefore crucial that the understanding of climate change impacts and adaptation options is specific enough to allow for decisions to be made. Although a certain level of uncertainty always will persist, planners and managers should be equipped with actionable information in a form they can readily access and use if they are to be able to respond appropriately and in a timely manner to climate change challenges.

7 Climate assessment tools: Delimitations and goals What will the work lead to? What types of decisions will the work act as a basis for? What quality requirements are needed for the analysis? What interfaces and limits need to be taken into account for endusers and connected systems? What endpoints or perspectives are to be taken into consideration (e.g. humans, environment, economy, property owner, national security)? What are the time horizons of interest? What phases of the productive activities need to be considered? Who are the stakeholders and who are suitable participants in the work? What criteria should the identified risks be assessed according to? What levels of details, methods and limitations should be chosen so that the results of the analysis can be related to the chosen criteria?

8 Ambition and aim for climate assessments and identification of related risks Completeness Knowledge-based (earlier experiences and scientific results are considered) Multi-disciplinary Transparent and easy to examine (welldocumented process) Structured Effective (should focus on the important and critical issues)

9 10. Installations and facilties Snow- and wind loads Humidity and mildew 1. Extreme weather Heavy rain/snowfall Storms/hurricanes Heat waves / cold spells Drought 2. Floods Land Buildings 9. Technical infrastructure Communication Energy and electricity Water and sanitation 8. Infrastructure Transport and logistics Background data and information -Temperature changes - Precipitation changes -Changes in wind -Sea level changes -- Topography, hydrology, soils, geology -Development planning -Etc Regional and municipal situation (strategic model) 3. Mass movements Land slides Subsidence Avalanches 3. Erosion Shores Coasts 6. Vegetation Production stands Biodiversity Environmental management 5. Contaminants Water Soil 4. Wildfires Air particles Visibility Hazard map (GIS)

10 Skaraborg Wing at Såtenäs as a pilot case study About 1,000 people are employed (military and civilian personnel). The Wing is responsible for the production of three Gripen divisions and for the training of all the Air Force s Gripen pilots. The Wing is also the home base for all of the Air Force s eight TP 84 Hercules transport aircraft, often used for international missions.

11 How will the climate change in the Såtenäs area? A successive increase of yearly mean temperatures during this century (about 4-6 C higher towards 2100 compared to today s climate) Snow cover and length will decline substantially The yearly mean precipitation will increase with about % at the end of the century Heavy rainfall events are expected to intensify in the future Accordingly, water flows will become altered, including groundwater flows.

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13 The issues of concern for Såtenäs include for example future changes in: flooding and landslides thawing and pollution wind and precipitation patterns disturbances and damages in technical infrastructure and subsequent impacts on buildings These issues are also coupled with other natural and socio-economic changes occurring in the surrounding region

14 Assessment of Contaminants in a future climate for Såtenäs Differences between the highest and lowest groundwater levels are in most cases small which is due to the prognosis of more rain than snow in the future Changes in the unsaturated/saturated zones is not expected to affect groundwater quality Higher flows could affect ground water quality negatively More precipitation and more intensive rains will lead to larger volumes of water that is to be drained away from manmade hard surfaces This implies a higher risk of flooding and overflow of sewage This in turn leads to an increased risk of chemical and biological contamination, for example in wells with drinking water.

15 Table 1. Distribution of contaminants in water and soil in a future climate for Såtenäs ( =increase, =decrease, =unaltered) Assessed change Contaminant transportation Mobilization of metals Corrosion Fluctuation of groundwater surface Depth of groundwater surface n/a Jan-April n/a HgCu Depth of groundwater surface n/a May-Oct n/a HgCu Depth of groundwater surface n/a n/a Nov-Dec n/a Infiltration n/a n/a Period of ground frost n/a n/a n/a Depth of ground frost n/a n/a n/a Surface drainage/floodings Soil temperature n/a n/a n/a Soil moisture n/a n/a n/a

16 Component 2 - Floodings All planning activities require consideration of chnges in water levels. Climate changes can lead to higher temperatures and increased precipitation. This will change the prerequisities for coverage, frequency and magnitude of floodings which could cause disturbances and damages to transport, infrastructure, buildings, and military activitities. Såtenäs: Increased water levels could lead to that buldings near the shores of Lake Vänern could become flooded. This could cause damages to buildings and pollution of wells. At high levels of water in the ground sewage plants could become affected. Analyserade faktorer Current Assessment Assessment Assessment Assessment Weighting Source Comments A2 B2 A2 B2 A2 B2 A2 B2 Soils Sand/clay SGU Topography Flat Lantmäteriet Precipitation (mm/year) V G 2012 Land cover Grassland/ Mixed coniferous leaf forest Lantmäteriet, Aerial photo, field observations Permeability 10^-6/10^-12 Sea level change n/a Hard surfaces Limited Flood risk (m a s l) 45,8 46,75 46,95 SMHI 2010; SRV 2000 Comments to the result: 46.3 m a s l is the recommended limit for establishing new buildings in the area Assessment High risk Elevated risk No significant risk

17 Conclusions The climate impact assessment tool presented here could be used as an effective basis for discussions and well-informed adaptation decisions to avoid costly and unwise investments and localizations of defense installations and facilities. This work still needs to be complemented with end-user perspectives and in-depth knowledge on the systems they are managing. If climate adaptation planning and action is taken serious and prioritized the Swedish Fortifications Agency and the Swedish Armed Forces will become more resilient to climate change impacts and effects.

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