Clean Energy Challenges for the Future

Transcription

1 Clean Energy Challenges for the Future Siemens Media Summit Erlangen, 27. Juni 2007 Dr. Nicolas Vortmeyer Chief Technology Officer Siemens Power Generation

2 Worldwide greenhouse gas emissions Electricity The main task here is to increase efficiency and cost-effectiveness of power generation both with fossil and renewable energy sources. There is currently no feasible approach for meeting increasing world-wide power demand without the use of coal the challenge here is to develop the technology needed for environmentally friendly coal combustion processes. Siemens builds the most powerful gas turbine in the world (340 MW), which will set a new benchmark of better than 60% efficiency in combined-cycle applications. % of worldwide greenhouse gas emissions; Total: 40 Gt CO 2 e page 1 Siemens Media Summit 2007, Dr. Nicolas Vortmeyer Copyright Siemens AG

3 Comprehensive product and service portfolio Leading market positions in nearly all businesses Divisions Fossil Power Generation (F) Oil & Gas and Industrial Applications (I) Instrumentation and Controls (L) Wind Power (R) Business activities Large gas turbines Large steam turbines Generators Power plants Service, incl. plant diagnostics, boiler and environmental service Industrial gas turbines Industrial steam turbines Turbo compressors Compressor solutions for oil & gas Service Instrumentation and control systems for all types of power plants IT solutions Service Wind turbines from 0.6 MW up to >3.6 MW (on- and off-shore) Wind farms Service Market position Average past growth rates* p.a. PG business figures Fiscal year 2006 #2 #2 #1 Sales: 10.1 bn Employees: 36,400 #5 (#1 bei offshore) ~ 10% ~ 40% ~ 10% ~ 130% * of Division page 2 Siemens Media Summit 2007, Dr. Nicolas Vortmeyer Copyright Siemens AG

4 Demand for electric power growing strongly Fossil fuels dominate and wind power will increase heavily Power Generation 1000 TWh 29 Other Renewables Geothermal Wind Others 20% 1% 12% 67% Biomass/ Residues Generation based on Renewables in 2000 = 260 TWh (2% of total) 3.2 %/a Fossile energy sources 67% Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas Oil Coal Solar Others Geothermal 5% 8% 1% 50% Wind Biomass/ Residues 36% Generation based on Renewables in 2020 = 1500 TWh (5% of total) Renewable energy sources achieve high market penetration, key driver is further development of their economics page 3 Siemens Media Summit 2007, Dr. Nicolas Vortmeyer Copyright Siemens AG

5 The force of the sea wind power moving offshore Wind power is main lever for growth in CO 2 -free technology Patented Siemens IntegralBlade technology Increasing engagement of utilities and large energy companies Onshore - established technology Offshore up to now 18 farms worldwide Siemens is market leader in the growing offshore wind market. (Nysted, Burbo Banks, Lillgrund, Gunfleet Sands) Lynne and Inner Dowsing will be the world`s largest offshore windpark and provide energy for 130,000 households >6300 Siemens wind turbines worldwide save approx. 10 million tons of CO 2 page 4 Siemens Media Summit 2007, Dr. Nicolas Vortmeyer Copyright Siemens AG

6 Steam turbine technology development SST SST SST SST % STPP efficiency 42 % STPP efficiency 47 % STPP efficiency >50 % STPP efficiency STPP Bergkamen projected to 747 MW STPP Isogo 1 projected to 600 MW Reference STPP NRW projected to 600 MW Reduction of CO 2 emissions STPP 50plus (E.ON) projected to 500 MW *STPP= Steam Turbine Power Plant Basis - 11% - 20,2% - 25,0% Efficiency increase of steam power plants is an important step to cut emissions and improve competitiveness of our customers. page 5 Siemens Media Summit 2007, Dr. Nicolas Vortmeyer Copyright Siemens AG

7 Gas turbine technology development SGT5-2000E SGT5-4000F SGT5-4000F SGT5-8000H 52 % CC efficiency 56 % CC efficiency 58 % CC efficiency 60 % CC efficiency CCPP* Killinghome 940 MW CCPP* Didcot 699 MW CCPP* Mainz-Wiesbaden 406 MW CCPP* Irsching MW Reduction of CO 2 emissions Basis -7,1% - 10,3% - 13,3% Advanced gas turbine technology leveraged significant improvements in competitiveness and CO 2 emission reduction of gas-fired power plants. *CCPP = Combined Cycle Power Plant page 6 Siemens Media Summit 2007, Dr. Nicolas Vortmeyer Copyright Siemens AG

8 Next generation gas turbines for 60% combined cycle efficiency require new design concepts 2 % points efficiency increase requires increased turbine inlet temperatures requires advanced coatings and cooling concepts. saves 40,000 tons of CO 2 per year World record reached in 2001 A quantum leap in efficiency In Irsching 4 PG will demonstrate the world s largest and most powerful gas turbine designed for highly flexible operation. page 7 Siemens Media Summit 2007, Dr. Nicolas Vortmeyer Copyright Siemens AG

9 Options for tomorrow s low-carbon power mix Privileged feed-in demands load leveling Wind Concentrated Solar Power Intermediate-load/ peak-load CCPP: High efficiency Low emissions Steep ramp up Low-emission base-load Coal-fired power plants: High-efficient, clean STPP IGCC pre-comb. Capture Retrofit post-comb. capture Nuclear power plants Hydro power plants CO 2 abatement potential with state-of-the-art technology Windpower -600 Mio t CO 2 /a by bn t CO 2 per year = total greenhouse gas emissions of Germany Gas-fired CCPP -4.1 bn t CO 2 /a i.e. 66 % of power generation from coal-fired steam power plants Coal-fired power plants (25 % of worldwide CO 2 - emissions) -1.7 bn t Co 2 /a i.e. -27 % of power generation from coal-fired steam power plants page 8 Siemens Media Summit 2007, Dr. Nicolas Vortmeyer Copyright Siemens AG

10 Options in the power generation sector to annually avoid 1 billion tons of CO 2 by Billions tons of CO 2 from fuel combustion emitted per year Business as usual, as currently predicted Climate stabilization path aiming 500 ppm CO 2 in the atmosphere in 2100 Required reduction: 26 Gt CO 2 p.a Source: R. Socolow, S.Pacala and Siemens PG * 1 Gt = 1 Mrd. t CO 2 reduction wedge to avoid 1 Gt CO 2 per year Options in the power generation sector that could each reduce annual emissions by 1 billion tons of CO 2 by 2050, replacing coal plants with 37 % efficiency: Efficiency increase Each year 26 new coal power plants (800 MW, 47%) replacing old coal plants Coal-to-gas shift Each year additional 12 gas-fired power plants instead of coal (450 MW, 58%) IGCC with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Beginning 2020 each year 10 IGCC power plants with CCS (800 MW) Carbon Capture retrofit Beginning 2020 each year 10 coal power plants retrofitted with post combustion CO 2 capture Wind Each year 3,000 wind turbines (3.6 MW) Hydro Each year 20 hydro power plants (400 MW) Nuclear Each year 2 nuclear power plants (1600 MW) page 9 Siemens Media Summit 2007, Dr. Nicolas Vortmeyer Copyright Siemens AG

11 Biggest innovation challenges Pre-combustion capture (IGCC) Post-combustion capture Coal gasification, CO 2 capture Gasification technology with multi-fuel capability (coal, biomass, petroleum coke and refinery residues) Increase efficiency and improve cost position PG s option for greenfield CO 2 capture from flue gas Enhancement potential for scrubbing process Retrofitting existing coal-fired power plants and offering capture ready layout Increase efficiency and improve cost position PG s option for retrofit and new installations PG IGCC in Puertollano (E) Siemens scrubber plant design PG is well-positioned for carbon capture with pre- and post-combustion technology. page 10 Siemens Media Summit 2007, Dr. Nicolas Vortmeyer Copyright Siemens AG

12 Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements and information that is, statements related to future, not past, events. These statements may be identified by words as expects, looks forward to, anticipates, intends, plans, believes, seeks, estimates, will or words of similar meaning. Such statements are based on our current expectations and certain assumptions, and are, therefore, subject to certain risks and uncertainties. A variety of factors, many of which are beyond Siemens control, affect its operations, performance, business strategy and results and could cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Siemens worldwide to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements that may be expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. For us, particular uncertainties arise, among others, from: changes in general economic and business conditions (including margin developments in major business areas); the challenges of integrating major acquisitions and implementing joint ventures and other significant portfolio measures; changes in currency exchange rates and interest rates; introduction of competing products or technologies by other companies; lack of acceptance of new products or services by customers targeted by Siemens worldwide; changes in business strategy; the out-come of pending investigations and legal proceedings; our analysis of the potential impact of such matters on our financial statements; as well as various other factors. More detailed information about our risk factors is contained in Siemens filings with the SEC, which are available on the Siemens website, and on the SEC s website, Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assump-tions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those described in the relevant forward-looking statement as expected, anticipated, intended, planned, believed sought, estimated or projected. Siemens does not intend or assume any obligation to update or revise these forward-looking statements in light of developments which differ from those anticipated. page 11 Siemens Media Summit 2007, Dr. Nicolas Vortmeyer Copyright Siemens AG