BP Statistical Review of World Energy

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1 BP Statistical Review of World Energy July 2016 bp.com/statisticalreview #BPstats BP p.i.c.2016

2 BP Statistical Review of World Energy July : A year of plenty Richard de Caux, head of refining analysis bp.com/statisticalreview #BPstats BP p.i.c.2016

3 Key features of 2015

4 Growth in GDP and energy GDP and primary energy growth Annual change, % 8% Energy intensity GDP Energy 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% Primary energy growth by region Annual change, % 6% 5% 10-year average 4% % 2% 1% 0% -4% % World OECD China Other BP Statistical Review of World Energy

5 Primary energy growth Fuel increments Annual change, Mtoe year average Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Renewables Total BP Statistical Review of World Energy

6 Energy prices Index (Jan 2014 = 100) Prices by fuel Coal 50 Gas Oil 0 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 BP Statistical Review of World Energy

7 Oil and refining

8 Oil market in 2015 Demand Annual change, Mb/d Importers Exporters 10-year average Global growth OPEC Non-OPEC year average Supply BP Statistical Review of World Energy

9 Oil market in 2015 Demand Annual change, Mb/d Importers Exporters 10-year average Global growth OPEC Non-OPEC year average Supply BP Statistical Review of World Energy

10 Oil market in 2015 Demand Annual change, Mb/d Importers Exporters 10-year average Global growth OPEC Non-OPEC year average Supply BP Statistical Review of World Energy

11 Oil inventories and price OECD commercial inventories Mbbls range average 2400 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Source: includes data from the International Energy Agency OECD/IEA 2016 and Platts. Dated Brent $/bbl Annual average BP Statistical Review of World Energy

12 Past episodes of large oil price falls Cumulative change in real prices from initial year 50% 25% % -25% -50% -75% Years Note: Oil prices have been converted into 2015 dollars to show changes in prices adjusted for inflation BP Statistical Review of World Energy

13 Refinery throughput and margins Refinery throughput Annual change, Mb/d 2.0 Other OECD China World year average 1.0 $/bbl Global refining margins* 16.3% * Average of regional margins, as defined in the Statistical Review BP Statistical Review of World Energy

14 Natural gas

15 Natural gas demand and supply Regional demand growth Regional supply growth Annual change, % Annual change, % -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% World Middle East Africa S. & C. America North America Asia Pacific Europe & Eurasia of which EU 10-year average World Middle East Africa S. & C. America North America Asia Pacific Europe & Eurasia of which EU BP Statistical Review of World Energy

16 US electricity sector GWh Electricity generation by fuel Coal Gas Electricity generation cost by fuel $/MWh 70 Gas 60 Coal Source: includes data from EIA, Pira, Platts BP Statistical Review of World Energy

17 Natural gas prices $/mmbtu European prices Dutch spot Oil-linked index Russian export proxy* 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 *Estimate derived from reported Average German Import Price and trade volumes BP Statistical Review of World Energy

18 Coal

19 Global coal market Annual change, % 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% Global coal demand growth Rest of world China World -4% BP Statistical Review of World Energy

20 Non-fossil fuels

21 Renewables growth Wind and solar growth Shares of solar growth Annual change, TWh Wind Solar 100% 80% 60% Other China Japan % 20% US EU % BP Statistical Review of World Energy

22 Carbon emissions

23 Factors driving slower growth of carbon emissions Annual change, % 1.5% Contributions to slowdown in 2015 growth vs trend US GDP 1.0% China 0.5% 0.0% 10-year average Other 2015 Note: these charts show, for each factor or geographic entity, the difference between its contribution to the growth of emissions in 2015 and its average contribution to emissions growth over the past decade BP Statistical Review of World Energy

24 BP Statistical Review of World Energy July 2016 bp.com/statisticalreview #BPstats BP p.i.c.2016

25 BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition Richard de Caux Head of refining analysis Outlook to 2035 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats

26 Global energy demand 2016 Energy Outlook Consumption by region Billion toe 18 Other 15 Other Asia 12 China Other OECD Industry 0 Transport Consumption growth by region 10 year average, % per annum 12% Other Asia 10% China 8% World 6% OECD 4% 2% 0% -2%

27 Fuel mix 50% 40% 30% 20% Shares of primary energy Oil Coal Gas Annual demand growth by fuel Mtoe per annum Renew.* Hydro 150 Nuclear 100 Coal 10% Hydro 50 Gas 0% Nuclear Renewables* *Includes biofuels Oil 2016 Energy Outlook

28 Speed of transition Shares of global primary energy 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Years from reaching 1% share Oil (1877) Gas (1899) Nuclear (1974) Hydro (1922) Renewables (2008) (projected) Note: - For sources of data pre-1965 see Economic development and the demand for energy by Ruehl et al, Energy Policy, 2012 BP Statistical Review of World Energy

29 Oil demand and supply Demand Supply Mb/d Other Mid East Other Asia India China 2035 level Other Brazil US OECD decline Non-OECD growth 2014 Non-OPEC growth OPEC growth 2016 Energy Outlook

30 Oil demand Mb/d Liquids fuel demand by sector Transport Industry Other Power Billion vehicles Non-OECD OECD Vehicle fleet Energy Outlook

31 Tight oil supply forecasts Mb/d 5 10-year supply increments Mb/d 8 Changes in US tight oil forecasts 4 S & C America Europe & Eurasia Asia Pacific North America 4 Forecast year: Energy Outlook

32 Changing outlook for carbon emissions 2016 Energy Outlook 32

33 Carbon emissions % per annum 4% Decline in energy intensity 3% 2% 1% GDP Decline in carbon intensity 0% 2016 Energy Outlook CO 2

34 Outlook for carbon emissions Billion tonnes CO Base case IEA Energy Outlook

35 Outlook for carbon emissions Billion tonnes CO Base case Faster transition IEA Energy Outlook

36 Impact of faster transition case Billion toe Coal Oil 1 Hydro & Nuclear Renewables* *Includes biofuels 2016 Energy Outlook Consumption by fuel Gas Annual demand growth by fuel Mtoe per annum Base case Faster transition Renew.* Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil Total CO2

37 Conclusions Global demand for energy continues to rise to power increased levels of activity as the world economy continues to grow Fuel mix changes significantly coal losing, renewables gaining, and oil and gas combined holding steady Growth rate of carbon emissions slows sharply but further policy changes are needed 2016 Energy Outlook

38 BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition Outlook to 2035 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats