Water and International Security: Definitions, History, and Future Risks

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1 Water and International Security: Definitions, History, and Future Risks Dr. Peter H. Gleick Pacific Institute, Oakland, California Tufts University February 2005

2 Water and Conflict: Conclusions There is a long history of conflicts over fresh water. Such conflicts have taken many forms. The risks of water-related disputes are growing. But: water can also be a cause for cooperation, negotiation, and agreement.

3 Key Concepts and Issues Environmental Security Water and conflict Water Wars International Rivers Shared watersheds/watercourses Environmental agreements and treaties

4 Environment and Security Outgrowth of the ending of the Cold War (mid-1980s); Outgrowth of the improved understanding of environmental issues; Marked by a rich, albeit cantankerous political science debate; Water piece enriched by diverse case studies.

5 Fresh water is widely shared internationally. Half of all land area on Earth Over 260 international river basins There is growing competition for water. Rising populations Water and Conflict: Critical Issues Rising demand from all sectors International efforts to resolve water-related disputes are often inadequate.

6 Water Wars? Or More Complex? Water as a goal Middle East (2700 BPE to present) Water as a weapon Han River, Korea; Ataturk Dam Water systems as targets WWII, Vietnam, Persian Gulf, Iraq Water in development disputes Apartheid SA, Cauvery River, Gabcikovo Chronology of water conflicts:

7 Number of International River Basins, Continent International Basins Africa 60 North/Central America 39 Source: Wolf et al by Continent South America 39 Asia 51 Europe 72 Totals 261

8 Transboundary Rivers Shared by Five or More States Danube 18 Congo 13 Niger 11 Nile 10 Zambezi 9 Lake Chad 8 Aral Sea 8 Rhine 8 Amazon 8 Volta 6 Jordan 6 Mekong 6 Tigris/Euphrates 6 Kura-Araks 6 Ganges/Brahmaputra 5 Neman 5 Vistula/Wista 5 La Plata 5

9 New Concerns/New Challenges? Water and economic development: poverty, allocation. Subnational, state-to-state, ethnic, local disputes are all increasingly common. Water-related acts of terrorism.

10 Subnational Water Conflicts; Terrorism Vaal Dam, South Africa, DWAF Los Angeles Aqueduct, Alabama Gates Credit: G.D.Bain 1991 Meuse River

11 Reducing the Risks of Water Conflicts Technical (scarcity) * Improve efficiency of water use in all sectors Explore new supply options Economic (allocation) Reduce water subsidies; re-evaluate rates Re-evaluate agricultural policies Institutional (management) Joint basin management Dispute resolution mechanisms Political * Effective and comprehensive joint agreements Equitable water rights allocations and control

12 $1996 U.S. GNP The productivity of water use can be greatly increased Water Withdrawals (km3/yr)

13 Economic Productivity of Water: U.S $ per Cubic Meter

14 Economic Productivity of Water: Hong Kong HK$ per cubic meter

15 Political Approaches: Treaties Many specific international river basin treaties, e.g., The Nile (the Sudan and Egypt) The Colorado (the U.S. and Mexico) The Jordan (Israel and Jordan) The Ganges/Brahmaputra (India and Bangladesh) Mixed success; continued challenges

16 Political Approaches: General Principles of International Water Law Obligation to Share Data Obligation to Resolve Disputes Peacefully Equitable Utilization of Water Prevention of Significant Harm Obligation to Notify and Inform Cooperative Management UN Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses (1997)

17 Conclusions: Water, Conflict, and Cooperation There is a long history of both conflict and cooperation over fresh water resources. New challenges are developing. Will our abilities to reach agreement and cooperation keep pace with the developing challenges?

18 Dr. Peter H. Gleick Pacific Institute, Oakland, California See also: