Placed to Win The West Ups its Industrial Game to Keep Pace with Asia

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1 Release date: 16 December 2015 Placed to Win The West Ups its Industrial Game to Keep Pace with Asia Castrol releases its latest Industrial Trade Barometer, part of the Castrol Global Trade Barometer Stronger industrial growth forecast for every leading Western nation Emerging nations also on the rise as regional supply chains grow in importance The outlook for the global industrial sector is improving, according to the latest Castrol Industrial Trade Barometer. Annualised growth rates to 2019 are predicted to reach 5.7% up from 4.3% in the last report. Growth will primarily be driven by the world s largest industrial trading nations, including the US, Germany and China. But improvements are expected from every western nation in the barometer. Meanwhile, emerging nations are taking advantage of their prime location to supply neighbouring economic powerhouses. As a global lubricant supplier, Castrol enables goods to be mined, made and moved around the world. The Castrol Global Trade Barometer (CGTB) is a series of reports tracking the performance and outlook of global trade based on a rolling, five-year forecast of future trade patterns (incorporating a Trade Barometer and Trade Outlook Index). It gives the big picture view of world exports and imports helping senior business decision-makers to understand the drivers of global trade and growth opportunities across five sectors. The Industrial Trade Barometer tracks the value of industrial production in the world s top 50 trading nations. Top traders China still heads the table of industrial trading nations by value. And with annualised expansion set to reach 7.72% to 2019, it has the fastest predicted growth of any the sector s top ten traders (Table 1). The latest barometer also finds growth rates for all Western countries improving. Annualised growth to 2019 for the US and Germany the world s second and third largest trading nations is forecast at 5.08% and 4.10% respectively. After a period of slower growth, trade is expected to pick up from 2016 in the US, and from 2017 in Germany. The other European countries among the world s top ten industrial trading nations France, the Netherlands, Italy and the United Kingdom are all set to follow a similar trade pattern to Germany. Mandhir Singh, COO at Castrol, says: China s global manufacturing strength and consistency is undeniable and the country is scaling the value chain faster, and with greater force, than we might have expected. Building strength

2 Regional supply chains are becoming increasingly important to the global industrial sector. Places such as South Korea, Vietnam and Mexico are taking advantage of their locations close to large economies with strong demand for what they produce. South Korea continues to develop as a leading industrial player, thanks to an everstrengthening trading partnership with China. The nation has climbed a place since the last report to reach fifth on the table of leading industrial nations (Table 1). It is also the fifth largest industrial exporter (Table 2), and has entered the top ten industrial importers for the first time, in ninth position (Table 3). Vietnam continues to outperform all other industrial trading nations in terms of growth, as the country also strengthens relationships with China. In South America, Chile and Brazil have each moved up a place, to become the world s third and sixth fastest-growing industrial nations respectively (Table 4). Mexico s emergence as a regional hub has taken it up two places to eighth in the table of the world s top ten industrial exporters. Mandhir Singh, COO at Castrol, says: Emerging economies are catching the established manufacturing nations, thanks to continuing economic development and increasing consumer demand. It may not be long before countries like Mexico climb the world trade ladder to compete with the established manufacturing powerhouses. ENDS Editor s notes Further information Press releases on the following are also available: 1. The overall Castrol Global Trade Barometer 2. The Automotive Trade Barometer 3. The Marine Trade Barometer incorporating The Castrol Global Port Report 4. The Aerospace Manufacturing Trade Barometer 5. The Natural Products Trade Barometer Download the full report, an infographic or videographic of the data, or explore further related content on the report s microsite: For more information please contact: Rosie Murphy or Bekki Parish Man Bites Dog Tel: +44 (0) teamcastrol@manbitesdog.com. About the Castrol Global Trade Barometer The 2015 Castrol Global Trade Barometer sits under the Mined, Made, Moved brand umbrella. It helps our customers assess potential growth opportunities across key sectors and markets by highlighting underlying growth trends and the key drivers of trade. The

3 CGTB is based on detailed economic modelling of investment grade trade data covering 200 countries and 10,000 sectors worldwide, interpolated from UN Comtrade, IMF, ITC and country statistical office data. The CGTB includes a five year forecast which will help to inform business strategy as our customers look to 2016 and beyond. Data for 20 parameters used in the forecast is taken from sources including Haver Analytics, Bloomberg, UNCTAD, WTO, IMF, ILO and the World Bank. The Castrol Global Trade Barometer is based on methodology and data provided by our specialist trade economist partner. This report should therefore be considered independent from, and not necessarily consistent with, the BP Energy Outlook. More information on the barometer s methodology and construction can be at About Castrol Castrol is one of the world s leading manufacturers and marketers of premium lubricating oils, greases, metal working fluids, control fluids and related services to automotive, manufacturing, mining, marine, and oil exploration and production customers across the world. Castrol couples high quality lubricant engineering with an expert technical support network and supply capability to deliver quality solutions wherever customers need them. Castrol employs over 7,500 people, it operates directly in more than 80 countries, and is represented by over 2,000 third party distributors. Part of the BP group, the company is headquartered in the UK. At the forefront of pioneering technology with its 13 R&D centres globally, Castrol invests every year in research and development of lubricants. Castrol s global teams of specialists have a deep understanding of what customers need and advise on solutions designed to optimize performance and help improve quality, productivity and the environmental, health and safety profiles of their customers. The brand represents over 100 years experience in liquid engineering : producing advanced lubricants for a wide range of applications, from manufacturing processes and metalworking to mining, shipping and marine activities and energy production. Castrol s products and services play a critical role in lubricating the global economy through what is mined, made and moved around the world. Data Tables Table 1: Top industrial trading nations Country Sum of 2014 ($ bn) CAGR * (%) 1. China 2, US 1, Germany 1, Japan South Korea France Hong Kong Netherlands Italy United Kingdom Table 2: Top industrial exporters Country Sum of 2014 ($ bn) 1. China 1, Germany US

4 4. Japan South Korea France Italy Mexico Netherlands United Kingdom Table 3: Top industrial importers Country Sum of 2014 ($ bn) 1. US China Germany Hong Kong France Netherlands Japan United Kingdom South Korea Canada Table 4: Fastest-growing industrial trading nations Country CAGR * (%) 1. Vietnam Iraq Chile Indonesia Saudi Arabia Brazil China India UAE Argentina 7.22 * Annualised growth over five years

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