MAPPING ANALYTICAL & MODELING TOOLS

Transcription

1 MAPPING ANALYTICAL & MODELING TOOLS FOR NDC IMPLEMENTATION Suphachol Suphachalasai PMR Secretariat Paving the Way for NDC Implementation San Jose, Costa Rica December 6-8, 2016

2 Contents Context and challenges Mapping tools to NDC process Key dimensions Examples Concluding thoughts 2

3 NDC cycle and analytical needs 2018: Facilitative dialogue 2020: Update NDCs 2023: Global stocktake 2025: Update NDCs 2028: Global stocktake V. NDC revision, ratcheting up ex-post + ex-ante, understanding gap and potential I. NDC refinement policy options, impacts, roadmap, sector targets, etc. NDC cycle and analytical needs II. NDC submission Institutional and multi-sectoral coordination, stakeholder engagement IV. NDC monitoring and tracking country-level & global stocktake III. NDC implementation enabling policy and investment framework, barriers removal, complementary measures 3

4 Broad policy questions How to translate overall pledges and broad pillars into concrete actions and enabling policies? How to prioritize and time actions/policies under budget envelope? How to make NDC implementable, and implement it effectively? How has NDC performed? What are potential options for ratcheting up? NDC process requires technical capacity, supported by appropriate analytical approaches/tools 4

5 Challenge: what model(s) to choose? Models included here are for mitigation and/or carbon pricing policies primarily in energy-related sectors, for ex-ante analysis and projection (excluding visualization/communication tools, and software) 5

6 Challenge: model selection NDC modeling framework NDC process Policy question 1 Policy question 2 Policy question 3 Policy question 4 Model A Model B Tool C Model D NDC Modeling and Analytical Framework 6

7 Mapping tools to NDC cycle: country perspective Ex-post evaluation tool suitable to NDC metrics (indicators, projects, programs, sectors, policies) NDC monitoring and tracking NDC refinement and update Forward-looking modeling tools NDC-sectors/GHGs Out to 2030 at least Same framework for ratcheting up Granular tools targeting concrete actions/policies Wider impacts beyond GHG NDC implementation NDC submission Cross-sectoral consolidation, aggregation consensus building tools 7

8 Modeling tools/framework: key dimensions Geographical scale Granularity of policies and measures Time horizon Sector and GHG coverage Impact indicators Theoretical foundation and model solution the meaning behind the numbers Ex-ante projection VS ex-post evaluation o Dealing with uncertainty adaptation linkages 8

9 Geographical scale Scale Relevance to NDC process Global Global stocktake Consolidate other models Multi-country/region International and regional policies/cooperation Global stocktake Model comparison for large emitters National NDC process (refinement, submission, implementation support, ratcheting up) International linkage but limited Sub-national (city, state) Support NDC process, in tandem with country-level model City-/state-level action plans 9

10 Granularity of policy questions and impacts Granularity Relevance to NDC process Sector/sub-sector Broad strategies and scenarios Awareness raising Communication Sectoral with focus measures Fuel-/technology-specific interventions Broad strategies and scenarios Initial policy dialogue Initial target setting NDC package of policies and measures NDC economics and financials NDC roadmap Project-level and/or spatially explicit interventions NDC package of policies and measures NDC economics and financials NDC roadmap and concrete actions Support NDC implementation 10

11 Mapping against geographical scale and granularity Geographical scale: Global multi-country national sub-national Granularity: Sector/sub-sector sectoral with focus measures fuel-/technology-specific interventions project-level and/or spatially explicit interventions Ordinal categorization for illustration purpose only 11

12 Time horizon Time horizon Relevance to NDC process 2030 Support NDC refinement and implementation 2050 Support NDC refinement and implementation Paris Agreement, Article 4, paragraph 19 Mid-century, long-term low GHG emission development strategies 2100 and beyond Paris Agreement, Article 2 Global stocktake Ratcheting up NDCs 12

13 Sector and GHG coverage Sector and GHG coverage Energy-related sub-sectors (power, transport, industry, building, etc) [CO2 only or all GHGs] Energy system [CO2 only or all GHGs] Agriculture, waste, and LULUCF [All relevant GHGs] Relevance to NDC process Sub-sectoral contributions to NDC Sub-sectoral NDC roadmap and implementation Energy sector contribution to NDC Energy roadmap and implementation under NDC Sector contribution to NDC Sector roadmap and implementation under NDC All NDC sectors and GHG Overall NDC refinement and implementation 13

14 Mapping against time horizon and coverage of sectors and GHG Time horizon: Sector and GHG coverage: all NDC sectors and GHGs energy system with all GHGs energy sub-sectors with all GHGs or CO2 only Ordinal categorization for illustration purpose only 14

15 Example 1 Energy sector contribution to NDC target and action plan Geographical scale: country-level (largely) Granularity: policy-/technology-specific interventions Time horizon: 2030 at minimum Sector and GHG coverage: energy system Impact indicators: emission, cost-benefit/mac, investment/financing/resource requirement, Theoretical foundation and model solution: engineeringeconomic approach, least-cost, constrained optimization Ex-ante VS ex-post: Ex-ante [and use consistent approach for ex-post MRV] 15

16 Example 2 Economic impact of carbon tax and energy subsidy reform as part of NDC implementation Geographical scale: country-level (largely) Granularity: policy-specific interventions Time horizon: 2030 at minimum Sector and GHG coverage: energy and economic sectors Impact indicators: emission, fiscal and macroeconomic implications, distributional/social impacts Theoretical foundation and model solution: macroeconomic with micro foundation, household-level, fiscal policies, complementary measures Ex-ante VS ex-post: Ex-ante 16

17 Example 3 Past emission impact of carbon tax in NDC Geographical scale: country-level (largely) Granularity: policy-/technology-specific interventions Time horizon: actual implementation period Sector and GHG coverage: energy system Impact indicators: emission Theoretical foundation and model solution: engineering-economic approach, impact evaluation, evidence-based and MRV Ex-ante VS ex-post: Ex-post 17

18 Example 4 Understanding gap between NDCs and 2C and global potential for increasing ambition Geographical scale: global/multi-country Granularity: flexible Time horizon: 2100 or beyond Sector and GHG coverage: all sectors and all GHGs Impact indicators: emission Theoretical foundation and model solution: accounting, simple models, consolidation/aggregation Ex-ante VS ex-post: Ex-ante 18

19 Concluding thoughts Start from understanding NDC and analytical underpinning Identify critical gaps analytical/technical capacity and resources, Paris Agreement timeline Data and assumptions are key to modeling tools Models evolve overtime, but are path-dependent Other issues, for example: Dealing with uncertainty (sensitivity analysis, stochastic, robust decision making, model comparison) Adaptation linkages (capturing key linkages, IAM) Be critical of models and results Trade-offs between models NDC modeling framework 19

20 Thank You for Your Attention PMR SECRETARIAT 20