EIP RAW MATERIALS ANNUAL CONFERENCE Janez Potočnik Co-Chair International Resource Panel - UNEP Brussels, January 13 th, 2015

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1 EIP RAW MATERIALS ANNUAL CONFERENCE Janez Potočnik Co-Chair International Resource Panel - UNEP Brussels, January 13 th, 2015

2 POPULATION GROWTH PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION GROWTH THE DOUBLING STORY LIMITED RESOURCES - FRESH WATER, OCEANS, LAND AND SOIL, CLEAN AIR, RAW MATERIALS, BIODIVERSITY, ECOSYSTEMS, FUEL TODAY 60% OF ECOSYSTEMS DEGRADED OR USED UNSUSTAINABLY

3 RESOURCE INTENSIVE MODEL OF PRODUCTION AND LOCK-INS CHANGE OF RESOURCE PRICE TRENDS AND INCREASED PRICE VOLATILITY

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6 RESOURCE INTENSIVE MODEL OF PRODUCTION AND LOCK-INS CHANGE OF RESOURCE PRICE TRENDS AND INCREASED PRICE VOLATILITY COST STRUCTURE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL IMPERATIVE IMPORT DEPENDENCY

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8 WEDDING RING: 10 TONNES OF GOLD ORE 10 KILOS OF MOBILE PHONES LESS THAN 10% RECYCLED IN EU MORE THAN 100 MIO EACH YEAR IN THE DRAWERS 2.4 TONNES OF GOLD 25 TONNES OF SILVER 1 TONNE OF PALLADIUM 900 TONNES OF COPPER

9 103 Lr 102 No 101 Md 100 Fm 99 Es 98 Cf 97 Bk 96 Cm 95 Am 94 Pu 93 Np 92 U 91 Pa 90 Th 89 Ac ** Actinides 71 Lu 70 Yb 69 Tm 68 Er 67 Ho 66 Dy 65 Tb 64 Gd 63 Eu 62 Sm 61 Pm 60 Nd 59 Pr 58 Ce 57 La * Lanthanides 118 Uuo (117) (Uus) 116 Uuh 115 Uup 114 Uuq 113 Uut 112 Uub 111 Rg 110 Ds 109 Mt 108 Hs 107 Bh 106 Sg 105 Db 104 Rf ** 88 Ra 87 Fr 7 86 Rn 85 At 84 Po 83 Bi 82 Pb 81 Tl 80 Hg 79 Au 78 Pt 77 Ir 76 Os 75 Re 74 W 73 Ta 72 Hf * 56 Ba 55 Cs 6 54 Xe 53 I 52 Te 51 Sb 50 Sn 49 In 48 Cd 47 Ag 46 Pd 45 Rh 44 Ru 43 Tc 42 Mo 41 Nb 40 Zr 39 Y 38 Sr 37 Rb 5 36 Kr 35 Br 34 Se 33 As 32 Ge 31 Ga 30 Zn 29 Cu 28 Ni 27 Co 26 Fe 25 Mn 24 Cr 23 V 22 Ti 21 Sc 20 Ca 19 K 4 18 Ar 17 Cl 16 S 15 P 14 Si 13 Al 12 Mg 11 Na 3 10 Ne 9 F 8 O 7 N 6 C 5 B 4 Be 3 Li 2 2 He 1 H 1 Period # 103 Lr 102 No 101 Md 100 Fm 99 Es 98 Cf 97 Bk 96 Cm 95 Am 94 Pu 93 Np 92 U 91 Pa 90 Th 89 Ac ** Actinides 71 Lu 70 Yb 69 Tm 68 Er 67 Ho 66 Dy 65 Tb 64 Gd 63 Eu 62 Sm 61 Pm 60 Nd 59 Pr 58 Ce 57 La * Lanthanides 118 Uuo (117) (Uus) 116 Uuh 115 Uup 114 Uuq 113 Uut 112 Uub 111 Rg 110 Ds 109 Mt 108 Hs 107 Bh 106 Sg 105 Db 104 Rf ** 88 Ra 87 Fr 7 86 Rn 85 At 84 Po 83 Bi 82 Pb 81 Tl 80 Hg 79 Au 78 Pt 77 Ir 76 Os 75 Re 74 W 73 Ta 72 Hf * 56 Ba 55 Cs 6 54 Xe 53 I 52 Te 51 Sb 50 Sn 49 In 48 Cd 47 Ag 46 Pd 45 Rh 44 Ru 43 Tc 42 Mo 41 Nb 40 Zr 39 Y 38 Sr 37 Rb 5 36 Kr 35 Br 34 Se 33 As 32 Ge 31 Ga 30 Zn 29 Cu 28 Ni 27 Co 26 Fe 25 Mn 24 Cr 23 V 22 Ti 21 Sc 20 Ca 19 K 4 18 Ar 17 Cl 16 S 15 P 14 Si 13 Al 12 Mg 11 Na 3 10 Ne 9 F 8 O 7 N 6 C 5 B 4 Be 3 Li 2 2 He 1 H 1 Period # 103 Lr 102 No 101 Md 100 Fm 99 Es 98 Cf 97 Bk 96 Cm 95 Am 94 Pu 93 Np 92 U 91 Pa 90 Th 89 Ac ** Actinides 71 Lu 70 Yb 69 Tm 68 Er 67 Ho 66 Dy 65 Tb 64 Gd 63 Eu 62 Sm 61 Pm 60 Nd 59 Pr 58 Ce 57 La * Lanthanides 118 Uuo (117) (Uus) 116 Uuh 115 Uup 114 Uuq 113 Uut 112 Uub 111 Rg 110 Ds 109 Mt 108 Hs 107 Bh 106 Sg 105 Db 104 Rf ** 88 Ra 87 Fr 7 86 Rn 85 At 84 Po 83 Bi 82 Pb 81 Tl 80 Hg 79 Au 78 Pt 77 Ir 76 Os 75 Re 74 W 73 Ta 72 Hf * 56 Ba 55 Cs 6 54 Xe 53 I 52 Te 51 Sb 50 Sn 49 In 48 Cd 47 Ag 46 Pd 45 Rh 44 Ru 43 Tc 42 Mo 41 Nb 40 Zr 39 Y 38 Sr 37 Rb 5 36 Kr 35 Br 34 Se 33 As 32 Ge 31 Ga 30 Zn 29 Cu 28 Ni 27 Co 26 Fe 25 Mn 24 Cr 23 V 22 Ti 21 Sc 20 Ca 19 K 4 18 Ar 17 Cl 16 S 15 P 14 Si 13 Al 12 Mg 11 Na 3 10 Ne 9 F 8 O 7 N 6 C 5 B 4 Be 3 Li 2 2 He 1 H 1 Period Group # 103 Lr 102 No 101 Md 100 Fm 99 Es 98 Cf 97 Bk 96 Cm 95 Am 94 Pu 93 Np 92 U 91 Pa 90 Th 89 Ac ** Actinides 71 Lu 70 Yb 69 Tm 68 Er 67 Ho 66 Dy 65 Tb 64 Gd 63 Eu 62 Sm 61 Pm 60 Nd 59 Pr 58 Ce 57 La * Lanthanides 118 Uuo (117) (Uus) 116 Uuh 115 Uup 114 Uuq 113 Uut 112 Uub 111 Rg 110 Ds 109 Mt 108 Hs 107 Bh 106 Sg 105 Db 104 Rf ** 88 Ra 87 Fr 7 86 Rn 85 At 84 Po 83 Bi 82 Pb 81 Tl 80 Hg 79 Au 78 Pt 77 Ir 76 Os 75 Re 74 W 73 Ta 72 Hf * 56 Ba 55 Cs 6 54 Xe 53 I 52 Te 51 Sb 50 Sn 49 In 48 Cd 47 Ag 46 Pd 45 Rh 44 Ru 43 Tc 42 Mo 41 Nb 40 Zr 39 Y 38 Sr 37 Rb 5 36 Kr 35 Br 34 Se 33 As 32 Ge 31 Ga 30 Zn 29 Cu 28 Ni 27 Co 26 Fe 25 Mn 24 Cr 23 V 22 Ti 21 Sc 20 Ca 19 K 4 18 Ar 17 Cl 16 S 15 P 14 Si 13 Al 12 Mg 11 Na 3 10 Ne 9 F 8 O 7 N 6 C 5 B 4 Be 3 Li 2 2 He 1 H 1 Period Group # END OF LIFE RECYCLING RATE (GLOBAL) FOR 62 METALS UNEP EVALUATION JANUARY, 2010 >50% >25-50% >10-25% 1-10% <1%???

10 ONLY 30% OF WEEE COLLECTED IS PROPERLY RECYCLED LESS THAN 1% OF THE CRITICAL RAW MATERIALS IN WEEE IS RECOVERED OUT OF THAT 30% LESS THAN 15% OF PRECIOUS METALS ARE RECOVERED RECYCLING TECHNOLOGIES AND SYSTEMS WORKS WELL FOR HIGH VOLUME MATERIALS IN LESS COMPLEX PRODUCTS (STEEL, PLASTIC, PAPER)

11 NOT JUST INCREMENTAL EFFICIENCY GAINS... NOR NEW TECHNOLOGIES ONLY... Copyright: Tesla

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13 RESPONDING TO FINANCIAL CRISIS IS NECESSARY, BUT NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ADDRESSING THE PROBLEMS OF GLOBALISATION AND IMPROVING COMPETITIVENES ARE OUR ANSWERS APPROPRIATE (FOCUS ON ENERGY PRICE OR EFFICIENCY) GETTING ALL STAKEHOLDERS ON BOARD: RESOURCE EFFICIENCY ROUNDTABLE PROGRAMME FOR CHANGE: RESOURCE EFFICIENCY ROADMAP INTEGRATION WITH OTHER POLICIES: CIRCULAR ECONOMY PACKAGE INTEGRATION INTO ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE MODEL: PREPARING INPUTS FOR THE SEMESTER PROCESS, REGULAR POINT ON THE ENVI COUNCIL AGENDA ACTIVELY CONTRIBUTING INPUTS FOR THE GLOBAL TRANSFORMATIONAL AGENDA

14 HEADLINE TARGET GDP/RAW MATERIAL CONSUMPTION DASHBOARD Indicator Land Indicator Water Indicator GHG Indicator Materials ANNUAL RESOURCE EFFICIENCY SCOREBOARD (EUROSTAT, since 2013)

15 HUMAN BEHAVIOUR - WHY WE ACT AT HOME IN A DIFFERENT WAY THAN WE DO IN OUR PUBLIC LIFE? LACK OF LONG TERM CONSISTENCY HOW TO STRENGHTEN LONG TERM STRATEGIC THINKING AND POLICY MAKING AND REPLACE PREVAILING SHORT TERM LOGIC? PROTECTING STATUS QUO - HOW TO BREAK LOCK-INS AND THE LOGIC OF DEFENDING THE LOWEST COMMON DENOMINATOR APPROACH? GOVERNENCE AND LACK OF IMPLEMENTATION: HOW TO TRANSLATE COMMITMENTS FROM POLITICAL STATEMENTS TO A DAILY REALITY? SILOS MENTALITY - HOW TO MAKE PEOPLE UNDERSTAND THAT COOPERATION IS THE BEST WAY FOR ALL OF THEM TO WIN?

16 INTERNATIONAL POLICY NEEDS A SCIENCE BASE The International Resource Panel was created in 2007 as a science-policy interface in responding to economic growth, escalating use of natural resources and deteriorating environment and climate change. Climate Change Biodiversity Loss Hazardous Substances Ozone Depletion Resource Efficiency IPCC IPBES Assessments under the Basel Convention Montreal Protocol s Scientific Assessments International Resource Panel

17 FROM INDIVIDUAL RESOURCES TO SYSTEMS THINKING INDIVIDUAL RESOURCES SYSTEMS THINKING Transition Mechanisms Resource Pricing and Values Human Behaviour Supply and Demand, Life Cycle/ Value Chain Land & Soil Food Water Plastics Metals and Minerals Energy Biobased Materials Environmental Impacts Legend: Perspectives Resources Materials Integrated Scenario Analysis Global Material Flows and Resource Productivity Direct and embodied resources in traded goods Sustainable Food Systems Resource use in cities

18 12 ASSESSMENTS PUBLISHED Assessing Biofuels (2009) 2. Priority Products and Materials (2010) 3. Decoupling Natural Resource Use and Env. Impacts from Eco. Growth (2011) 4. Metal Stocks in Society (2011) 5. Recycling Rates of Metals (2011) 6. Measuring Water Use in a Green Economy (2012) 7. Metal Recycling: Opportunities, Limits, Infrastructure (2013) 8. Env. Risks and Challenges of Anthropogenic Metal Flows and Cycles (2013) 9. City-Level Decoupling and the Governance of Infrastructure Transitions (2013) 10. Assessing Global Land Use: Balancing Consumption with Sust. Supply (2014) 11. Building Natural Capital: How REDD+ Can Support a Green Economy (2014) 12. Decoupling Technologies, Opportunities and Policy Options (2014)

19 ON-GOING RESEARCH AND UPCOMING REPORTS 1.Benefits, Risks and Trade-Offs of Low Carbon Technologies: Electricity Generation (2015) 2.Resource Dimensions of International Trade (2015) 3.Benefits, Risks and Trade-Offs of Low-Carbon Technologies: Energy Efficiency (2015) 4.Maintaining and Increasing Landscape Productivity through the Application of Land Potential Evaluation Systems (2015) 5.Food Systems and Natural Resources (2016) 6.Scenarios for future resource demand ( ) 7.Material Flow database and report ( ) 8.Resource Implications of Future Urbanization (2016)

20 SUPPORT THE GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS IN PARTICULAR THE POST-2015 TRANSFORMATIVE AGENDA AND SDG s FILL THE MISSING KNOWLEDGE LINKS CIRCULAR ECONOMY REMANUFACTURING; MARINE RESOURCES THE LINK BETWEEN GREEN AND BLUE ECONOMY; ECOLOGICAL RESTORATION RESOURCE NEXUS, LINKS TO POVERTY ERADICATION, GOVERNANCE AND POVERY ERADICATION STRENGTEN THE LINK WITH REGIONS AND COUNTRIES POLICY RELEVANCE PUBLIC IDENTIFICATION AND AWARENES OF THE WORK DONE BETTER DEFINE THE SPECIFITIES AND OVERLAPING AREAS WITH SIMILAR GLOBAL SCIENTIFIC BODIES AND ACTIVELY ENGAGE IN INTEGRATION OF THE SUBSTANCE

21 PROTECTING ENVIRONMENT AND HUMAN HEALTH WILL NOT BE POSSIBLE WITHOUT FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGING OUR ECONOMIC BEHAVIOUR - WITHOUT GOING INTO THE ROOTS OF ECONOMIC THEORY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT WILL NOT BE POSSIBLE WITHOUT RESPECTING THE LIMITS OF THE PLANET ECOLOGY ECONOMY OIKOS (HOME)

22 CHANGE WE HAVE TO FIX A BROKEN COMPASS (PAVAN SUKHDEV)

23 ENVIRONMENT ECONOMY