LCOE and LCA of PV Systems HSun Case Study

Transcription

1 Dia do Seminário Carlos Filipe Pires Bexiga LCOE and LCA of PV Systems HSun Case Study Dissertação apresentada à Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Energia e Bioenergia Orientador: Doutor Luís Pina Co orientador: Professor Doutor Nuno Lapa 9 de Novembro de

2 Introduction Figure 1 Energy worldwide between 2000 and 2050 (Ecofys, 2011) 2

3 Introduction Figure 2 Cumulative Photovoltaic Installations from 2000 to 2009 (European Comission, 2010) 3

4 HSun Technology Figure 3 X Module prototype of July 2010 (WS Energia, 2010) Figure 4 Sun Gravity Control robotic (WS Energia, 2010) Figure 5 WS Horizon (WS Energia, 2011) 4

5 HSun Technology The system design of HSUN technology integrates 24 X Modules capable of composing a typical Micro geração system of 3.68 kw. Figure 6 HSUN technology design (WS Energia, 2011) 5

6 Aims The present thesis pretend to be a work that supplies information about PV and CPV costs and energy production, in a life cycle perspective, by: Producing a LCOE software tool for PV and CPV products; Analysing the current PV and CPV modules recycling processes; Obtaining the LCOE for HSUN case studies and other PV products presented, allowing the comparison between them; Analysing the impact of the different variables impacts. 6

7 LCOE Levelized Cost of Electricity The LCOE is the average cost of every unit of energy produced by an electricity generator across its entire lifetime, brought back to the value at the time of the analysis ( /kwh) Where: I0 Initial Investments Ac Annual Costs Rv Residual Value Sc System Capacity Cf Capacity Factor Av Availability Factor Df De rate Factor 7

8 Residual Value vs Recycling Value The residual value is the estimated value of an asset at the end of its useful life. At the end of a solar plant lifetime, it is considered a residual value of 5% over all construction costs (EIA, 2010). In this LCOE methodology, instead of using a residual value, a recycling cost was applied in order to get a closer comprehension of the recycling effects in the life cycle of a PV plant. Treatment and recycling procedures for PV panels are similar to recycling of LCDs, screen glass, mirrors, windscreens, other laminated lamps and gas discharge lamps, due to their large portion of glass. (Bio Intelligence Service, 2011) 8

9 Treatment and Recycling Processes DEUTSCHE SOLAR S PROCESS Conceived for recycling standard modules with solar cells made of monocrystalline, polycrystalline or amorphous silicon. FIRST SOLAR S PROCESS This program is only designed to recycle thin film solar cells that First Solar has manufactured. Figure 7 Manual of module components after the incineration process (Sander et al., 2007) Figure 8 First solar recycling (First Solar, 2011) 9

10 Recycling Costs In order to determine the economic viability of recycling solar modules, McDonald and Pearce (2010) made an analysis of the recycling process for four of the largest volume commercialized types of solar cells including: copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS), cadmium telluride (CdTe), poly crystalline silicon (p Si) and mono crystalline silicon (c Si). Table 1 Landfill disposal cost of PV modules and total profitability of recycling (adapted from McDonald & Pierce, 2010) CIGS CdTe c Si p Si E(W/m 2 ) 100 a 108 a 144 a 138 a Weight (kg) 28 b 12 c 15.4 d 19.4 e Nominal Power 160 b 77.5 c 180 d 230 e (W) W (kg/module) 17.5 b c d e T ( /kg) g 0.28 g g g D ( ) P T =P t +D C ( ) Source: (a) Von Roedern (2009), (b) Xsunx (2009), (c) First Solar (2009b), (d) BP Solar (2009a), (e) BP Solar (2009b), (f) Sharp (2009) and (g) Lee (1995) 10

11 LCOE Software Tool for PV and CPV Systems A LCOE Software Tool was designed to assist the computation of LCOE by providing formulas and tables to calculate values, quantities and costs, which all together will reach the LCOE of each PV and CPV project. Figure 9 LCOE Cash Flow worksheet 11

12 LCOE Dynamics for HSUN The HSUN technology has started its production in 2010 with a capacity of 10 kw per year, which was considered to be a prototype scale. It is expected to reach the GW scale production in 2015, increasing the production 10 times per year, from 2010 to HSUN Production ( ) HSUN production (GW) 1 0,1 0,01 0,001 0,0001 0, Figure 10 HSUN Production ( ) 12

13 HSUN Oeiras Case Study Assumptions Table 2 HSUN case studies CPV array specifications Size of PV array 3.68 kw 100 kw 1 MW 10 MW PV array area 48 m m m m 2 Annual CPV energy generation MWh/year (Yr 1) MWh/year (Yr 1) MWh/year (Yr 1) MWh/year (Yr 1) Array slope Array azimuth Tracking method 1 axis (N S) 1 axis (N S) 1 axis (N S) 1 axis (N S) CPV plant capacity factor 25 % 25 % 25 % 25 % Wire and mismatch losses 4 % 4 % 4 % 4 % Inverter efficiency 90 % 90 % 90 % 90 % Table 3 HSUN case studies economic assumptions Project lifetime 25 years Recycling cost /module Discount rate 5 % O&M costs 1 % Eventualities 1 % Inflation 2.70 % Spread 3.74 % Euribor 3.94 % Financing 95 % 13

14 HSUN Oeiras Case Study LCOE 0,35 0,3 LCOE dynamics for HSUN vs X Module efficiency improvement LCOE ( /kwh) 0,25 0,2 0,15 0, Efficiency (%) 0, ,68 kw project 100 kw project 1 MW project 10 MW project HSun efficiency 0 Figure 11 LCOE dynamics for HSUN vs X Module efficiency 14

15 HSUN Oeiras Case Study System Costs Division Figure 12 System costs groups division for 3.68 kw, 100 kw, 1 MW and 10 MW. 15

16 HSUN Oeiras Case Study Direct Costs Division Figure 13 System costs groups division for 3.68 kw, 100 kw, 1 MW and 10 MW. 16

17 HSUN LCOE vs Electricity Prices 0,35 HSUN LCOE vs Electricity prices 0,3 LCOE ( /kwh) 0,25 0,2 0,15 0,1 0, ,68 kw project Year 100 kw project 1 MW project 10 MW project Residential price Industrial price Industrial price (>24000 MWh/yr) Figure 14 HSUN LCOE vs Electricity prices 17

18 Estimated Module Prices 3,5 Estimated modules prices to the first point of sale ( ) 3 Modules Prices ( /Wp) 2,5 2 1,5 1 0, Year Mid range buyers Large quantity buyers Figure 15 Estimated modules prices to the first point of sale (adapted from India Semiconductor Association, 2010) 18

19 Comparison Between HSUN and Conventional PV Systems Table 4 HSUN LCOE Table 5 Solon Blue 270 LCOE Table 6 Solar Fabrik 235 LCOE 19

20 Sensitivity Analysis Location HSUN LCOE Sensitivity Analysis Location Reykjavik Berlin Stockholm Catania Location Torino Santander Tarifa Beja Braga Oeiras 0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2 0,25 LCOE ( /kwh) Figure 16 HSUN LCOE Sensitivity Analysis Location 20

21 Sensitivity Analysis Discount Rate HSUN LCOE Sensitivity Analysis Discount Rate Discount rate (%) ,02 0,04 0,06 0,08 0,1 0,12 LCOE ( /kwh) Figure 18 HSUN LCOE Sensitivity Analysis Discount Rate 21

22 Conclusions LCOE Software Tool for PV and CPV systems is nowadays a very usefull tool for WS Energia S.A. by allowing a faster approach to the LCOE results and analysis required. HSUN LCOE values varied from /kwh in 2010 for 3.68 kw project to /kwh in 2015 for 10 MW project. This dynamic is due to HSUN efficiency improvement and materials and production economies of scale. Comparing two types of PV conventional modules with HSUN, it is possible to understand that they are in a very similar range of LCOE values from 2013, so HSUN will have its space in the solar market but won t cause a market revolution. Slight variations in parameters such as discount rate, system lifetime, system degradation rate and financing shown a huge influence in the LCOE computation. 22

23 Future Work Understand if the production of new modules with the recycled solar modules material is economical viable, since its known that environmentally it is much better. New recycling processes and policy support mechanisms should also be studied in order to pursuit an economic and environmental viable path for solar energy. 23

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