The UK Climate Impacts Program. Morgan Griffin Senior Energy Advisor

Transcription

1 The UK Climate Impacts Program Morgan Griffin Senior Energy Advisor

2 What We Will Cover What is UKCIP? Why adapt? Expected changes to UK weather and climate UKCP09 climate projections Some principles and approaches to adaptation Some examples of adaptation of the built environment

3 The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) To help organisations assess how they might be affected by climate change, so that they can prepare for its impacts. Established in 1997 Currently based at the Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford Principally funded by Defra

4 UKCIP is a Boundary Organisation facilitating relationships between key organisations

5 Climate and Weather Climate is what you expect weather is what you get! Climate the average weather in a locality (by convention over a thirty year period) Weather what it is doing outside right now Max temp, Summer av Days of ground frost Winter av., It is mainly extreme weather events, and their impacts, that present risks to society. Oxford Eastern By-Pass: October 11th 2006

6 Twin Responses to Climate Change Mitigation measures to slow down global warming by reducing greenhouse gas emissions Adaptation responding to the predicted impacts of unavoidable climate change

7 Climate Change is Unavoidable

8 UK Climate Scenarios UK climate scenarios have been produced since 1991 UKCIP published climate scenarios in 1998, 2002 and 2009 Each version has become more detailed, building upon: improved scientific knowledge increased computing power stakeholder requirements Each has represented best scientific understanding at that time CCIRG91 CCIRG96 UKCIP98 UKCIP02 UKCP09 UKCIPnext

9 Seasonal Mean Temperature

10 Improved Spatial Resolution Information available for: 25 km grids Administrative regions River catchments

11 Expected Changes to UK Climate Annual / seasonal averages Warmer, drier summers (spring, autumn too) Milder, wetter winters Rising sea levels Seasonal shifts Extremes More very hot days More intense downpours of rain Shorter return periods for high water levels at coast Uncertain changes in storms possible increase in winter

12 East Midlands, Medium Emissions Scenario for 2080s Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 3ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.6ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.6ºC Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 3.5ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.8ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 5.8ºC Under medium emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 19%; it is very unlikely to be less than 3% and is very unlikely to be more than 41% Under medium emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is 20%; it is very unlikely to be less than 43% and is very unlikely to be more than 6%

13 East Midlands, Medium Emissions Scenario Average Annual Temperature, Medium Emissions Scenario

14 East Midlands, Medium Emissions Scenario Average Winter Precipitation, Medium Emissions Scenario

15 East Midlands, Medium Emissions Scenario Average Summer Precipitation, Medium Emissions Scenario

16 Describing Probabilities Central estimate 50% 10% VERY UNLIKELY 90% LIKELY VERY UNLIKELY

17 The 2003 Heat Wave in Europe Europe: 30,000 deaths Forest fires and crop damage seriously impacted economy Economic losses in excess of 7.5bn England (3-14 Aug): Excess mortality Hadley Centre All ages: 2091(17%) >75: 1781(23%) Emergency hospital admissions >75: 1490 (6%)

18 The 2003 Heat Wave in Europe European summer temperatures observations Medium-High emissions (modelled) 2003 Summer heat wave could be normal by 2040s Source: Peter Stott, Hadley Centre cool by 2080s

19 Climate, Vulnerability and Adaptation New critical threshold New coping range Climate variable Vulnerability Critical threshold Coping range Past Time Present Decision to adapt Lag Implementation of adaptation

20 Some Design Guides for the Built Environment

21 Using Green Infrastructure Rockingham Forest for Life Project Barnes Meadow

22 Managing Flood Risks Upton Sustainable Drainage System, near Northampton

23 Adaptation of Built Environment Nottingham Trent University Green Roof Derby City Council Free Tree and Shrub Scheme

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