Upstream investment trends for Japanese LNG buyers and developers

Transcription

1 0 Upstream investment trends for Japanese LNG buyers and developers Ryuta KITAMURA JOGMEC International LNG Congress th March, 2016

2 Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) 1 Established: February 29, 2004 [succeeded the functions of Japan National Oil Corporation(JNOC)] President: Keisuke Kuroki Capital: 751 Billion Yen (As of January, 2016) = around 6.83 Billion US$ (110US$/Yen) Mission Securing Stable Supply of Oil, Natural Gas, Coal and Mineral Resources for Japanese Industries and Citizens Activities Oil & Gas Upstream Investment and Research & Development Metals Strategy & Exploration, and Technology Development Stockpiling Mine Pollution Control Coal Strategy & Exploration, and Technological Support Geothermal Resources Development

3 JOGMEC Oil & Gas Upstream Projects (Natural Gas) North Montney Shale Gas Project (Canada) Horn River Shale Gas Project (Canada) 2 Sakhalin I Project (Russia) Cordova Shale Gas Project (Canada) Cutbank Dawson Shale Gas Project (Canada) Rovuma Offshore Area 1 Project (Mozambique) Tangguh LNG Project (Indonesia) Block B (Vietnam) PNG LNG Project (Papua New Guinea ) Abadi LNG Project (Indonesia) Wheatstone LNG Project (Australia) Ichthys LNG Project (Australia) Equity Capital (50) Liability Guarantee (12) (As of Jan, 2015) (Source: JOGMEC)

4 Electricity Mix in Japan 3 10*8kWh No nuclear plant in operation in 2014FY Sendai plant in Kyushu has been restarted in Aug reactors in operation (Sendai) and 1 more (Takahama) under preparation at the moment Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster (Source: The Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan)

5 LNG Imports in Japan 4 LNG imports at record high LNG Spot Price in Japan MMton trillion JPY Month LNG WTI Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster (Source: MOF Japan) (US$/MMBtu) (US$/bbl) (Source: METI Japan)

6 Long Term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook 5 (Source: METI Japan, Long Term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook, July 2015)

7 Japanese LNG Import Outlook 6 (Source: BREE Resources and Energy Quarterly, Mar 2014)

8 Upstream Investment by Japanese Utility Companies in Australia & PNG 7 Gorgon LNG OSAKA GAS TOKYO GAS CHUBU Electric Crux Sunrise / Evans Shoal OSAKA GAS OSAKA GAS Wheatstone LNG Pluto LNG Darwin LNG TOKYO E/P TOKYO GAS TOKYO E/P TOKYO GAS KUSHU E/P KANSAI E/P Ichthys LNG TOKYO GAS OSAKA GAS CHUBU E/P TOHO GAS KANSAI E/P Stanley OSAKA GAS Queensland Curtis LNG TOKYO GAS Producing Darwin LNG (FID : 2003) (First LNG in 2006) Pluto LNG (FID : 2007) (First LNG in 2012) QC LNG (FID : 2010) (First LNG in 2015) Under Construction Gorgon LNG (FID : 2009) Wheatstone LNG (FID : 2011) Ichthys LNG (FID : 2012) (Source: JOGMEC Sydney Office) Producing Construction Planning LNG Planning Stage Sunrise & Evan Shoal Crux Stanley

9 Upstream Investment by Japanese Utility Companies 8 Snorre Oil Field OSAKA GAS Barnett (Shale) TOKYOGAS Pearsall (Shale) Osaka Gas acquired WI for Sanga-Sanga Block in Indonesia in Cordova (Shale) TOKYO GAS OSAKA GAS CHUBU E/P OSAKA GAS Cove Point LNG TOKYOGAS Osaka gas invested in Snorre oil field offshore Norway from Qalhat LNG Freeport LNG OSAKA GAS Producing LNG Planning / Construction Upstream (Potential LNG source) Sanga Sanga (Bontang LNG) OSAKA GAS OSAKA GAS CHUBU E/P Utility companies are expanding into North America ( ). (Source: JOGMEC Sydney Office)

10 Upstream Investment by Japanese LNG Buyers (Tokyo Gas Challenge 2020 Vision ) 9 (Source: Tokyo Gas Challenge 2020 Vision, Nov )

11 Upstream Investment by Japanese LNG Buyers (Osaka Gas Mid-term Business Plan ) 10 (Source: Osaka Gas Catalyze Our Dreams, Mar )

12 Upstream Investment by Japanese LNG Buyers (TEPCO and Chubu E/P established new company JERA ) 11 Tokyo Electric Power Company, Incorporated and Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. have jointly established JERA Co., Inc. ( JERA ) on April 30, 2015 to materialize a comprehensive alliance covering the entire energy supply chain, from upstream investments and fuel procurement through power generation. (Source: JERA JERA Business Plan, Feb )

13 Key Words for Investing in Upstream Projects for Utility Companies 12 Understanding Upstream Business Conventional -> Unconventional (CSG, Shale) Risk Hedge (Seller / Buyer) Equity Lifting

14 Upstream Investment by Japanese Trading Houses in Australia & PNG 13 Enfield/Vincent Oil Field Browse FLNG MIMI Canning Basin Exploration MITSUBISHI PNG-LNG MARUBENI Talisman Gas Project MITSUBISHI Meridian CSG MIMI is Japan Australia LNG Pty Ltd, 50:50 joint venture between Mitsubishi & Mitsui. MIMI was established for the North West Shelf LNG project in NWS LNG MIMI Surat Basin CSG TOYOTA Tsusho Otway Gas Project TOYOTA Tsusho Trading houses are active in exploration projects as well as development projects. Mitsui and Mitsubishi hold some other exploration licenses offshore WA. Producing Construction Planning Casino/Henry Gas Field Bass Gas Project TOYOTA Tsusho (Source: JOGMEC Sydney Office)

15 Qatargas / RasGas LNG MARUBENI ITOCHU SUMITOMO SOJITZ Equatorial Guinea LNG MARUBENI Upstream/LNG Investment by Japanese Trading Houses Abu Dhabi LNG Malaysia LNG MITSUBISHI MITSUBISHI Mozambique LNG Oman/Qalhat LNG ITOCHU Sakhalin 2 LNG MITSUBISHI (Source: JOGMEC Sydney Office) Brunei LNG MITSUBISHI Sanga Sanga (Bontang LNG) SUMITOMO SOJITZ Donngi Senoro LNG MITSUBISHI LNG Canada (Cordova/Montney) MITSUBISHI Barnett (Shale) SUMITOMO Tangguh LNG Eagle Ford (Shale) MITSUBISHI SUMITOMO SOJITZ Producing LNG Planning / Construction Upstream (Potential LNG source) Alberta (CBM) TOYOTA Tsusho Marcellus (Shale) SUMITOMO Cove Point LNG SUMITOMO Cameron LNG MITSUBISHI Peru LNG MARUBENI 14 Starting in SE Asia, Middle East and Australia 70 s to 80 s Brunei 1972 (1st Cargo) Abu Dhabi 1977 Malaysia 1983 North West Shelf 1989 In Middle East 90 s to early-00 s Qatargas 1996 RasGas 1999 Oman 2000 Qalhat 2005 Then, diversify globally Africa Latin America North America

16 Upstream Investment by Japanese LNG Buyers (Mitsubishi Corporation) 15 (Source: Mitsubishi Corporation New Strategic Direction, May )

17 Key Words for Investing in Upstream Projects for Trading Houses 16 LNG Value Chain Production -> Liquefaction -> Shipping -> Marketing Tolling vs Upstream/Liquefaction Packaging (Especially in North America) Conventional / Unconventional Potential asset for LNG project

18 Emerging Japanese LNG Players IDEMITSU INPEX JAPEX JGC JAPEX TOSHIBA INPEX JX Nippon INPEX Producing & Developing LNG 17 INPEX - Tangguh, Darwin LNG, Ichthys, Prelude JX Nippon - PNG LNG JAPEX - Sanga Sanga (Bontang LNG) Potential projects for LNG INPEX - Abadi FLNG INPEX & JGC - BC Shale w/nexen JAPEX - Pacific NorthWest LNG Liquefaction & Export project (Tolling) IDEMITSU - Triton LNG LNG off-take INPEX - Ichthys, (Abadi) JX Nippon - Gorgon JAPEX - MLNG 3, PNW-LNG TOSHIBA - Freeport LNG (Source: Wood Mackenzie Emerging Japanese LNG Players, March, 2014 )

19 Emerging Japanese LNG Player 18 LNG Terminal (Operating) LNG Terminal (Constructing or Plan) JAPEX INPEX JX Nippon (Source: Tokyo Gas LNG Terminals in Japan, Jul 2013 ) LNG Terminal by Japanese E&P companies INPEX Naoetsu terminal (Cap: 1.5mpta) Completed in 2013 Will receive Ichthys LNG (0.9mtpa) from 2016 (SPA with Chubu for 1.0MMton in ) JAPEX Soma terminal (Cap: NA) Under construction (Complete in 2018) Will receive PNW LNG (1.2mtpa) from 2018 JX Nippon Hachinohe terminal (Cap: 1.0mpta) Completed in 2015 Will receive Gorgon LNG (0.3mtpa) from 2016

20 Conclusion 19 LNG demand in Japan will remain high over the next 5years. Almost half of the supply will come from Australia in Utility companies and Trading houses continue to be active investing in upstream LNG projects to secure a stable and diversified supply of LNG. E&P companies and other new players may enter the LNG industry not only as a developer but also as a off-taker as well.

21 Back up 20

22 Strategic Energy Plan 21 Zero-emission Power Source (Nuclear + Renewable) Yr 2020: >50%, Yr 2030: =70% Nuclear will remain an important source of electricity. Ratio :As low as possible Energy Independence Ratio: 38% (Yr2010) to 70% (Yr2030) Strategic Energy Plan (revised in) 2010 Strategic Energy Plan (revised in) 2014 (Source: METI Japan)