Upstream investment trends for Japanese LNG buyers and developers Ryuta KITAMURA JOGMEC Sydney Office

Transcription

1 0 Upstream investment trends for Japanese LNG buyers and developers Ryuta KITAMURA JOGMEC Sydney Office Australian Gas Export Outlook th June, 2014

2 Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) 1 Established: February 29, 2004 [succeeded the functions of Japan National Oil Corporation(JNOC)] President: Hirobumi Kawano Capital: 502 Billion Yen (As of April, 2013) = around 5.02 Billion US$ (100US$/Yen) Mission Securing Stable Supply of Oil, Natural Gas, Coal and Mineral Resources for Japanese Industries and Citizens Activities Oil & Gas Upstream Investment and Research & Development Metals Strategy & Exploration, and Technology Development Stockpiling Mine Pollution Control Coal Strategy & Exploration, and Technological Support Geothermal Resources Development

3 JOGMEC Oil & Gas Upstream Project (Natural Gas) 2 Sakhalin I Project (Russia) North Montney Shale Gas Project (Canada) Horn River Shale Gas Project (Canada) Cordova Shale Gas Project (Canada) Cutbank Dawson Shale Gas Project (Canada) Rovuma Offshore Area 1 Project (Mozambique) Tangguh LNG Project (Indonesia) PNG LNG Project (Papua New Guinea ) Abadi LNG Project (Indonesia) Kudu Project (Namibia) Wheatstone LNG Project (Australia) Ichthys LNG Project (Australia) Equity Capital (44) Liability Guarantee (13) (As of Mar 31, 2014) (Source: JOGMEC)

4 electric power energy (10 12 Wh) Electricity Mix and LNG Imports 3 Thermal power replaces Nuclear Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster LNG import at a historic high Renewable Hydraulic 600 Oil LNG 400 Coal Nuclear FY 2011FY 2012FY (Source: The Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan) 110 billion US$ trade deficit (2013) 70 billion US$ import of LNG (2013) (35 billion US$ in 2010)

5 Strategic Energy Plan 4 Zero-emission Power Source (Nuclear + Renewable) Yr 2020: >50%, Yr 2030: =70% Nuclear will remain important source of electricity. Ratio :As low as possible Energy Independence Ratio: 38% (Yr2010) to 70% (Yr2030) Strategic Energy Plan, revised in 2010 Strategic Energy Plan, revised in 2014

6 Japanese LNG Import Outlook 5 (Source: BREE Resources and Energy Quarterly, Mar 2014)

7 Upstream Investment by Utility Companies in Australia & PNG Gorgon LNG Wheatstone LNG Crux Pluto LNG Darwin LNG Sunrise / Evans Shoal Ichthys LNG Stanley Queensland Curtis LNG Producing Darwin LNG FID in 2003 (First LNG in 2006) Pluto LNG FID in 2007 (First LNG in 2012) Under Construction Gorgon LNG in 2009 Wheatstone LNG in QC LNG in 2011 Ichthys LNG in Producing Construction Planning/Exploration Planning Stage Sunrise & Evan Shoal in 2000 Crux in 2007 Stanley in 2014* (Awaiting Completion) (Source: JOGMEC Sydney Office)

8 Upstream Investment by Japanese Utility Companies Snorre Oil Field Cordova (Shale) Freeport LNG Qalhat LNG Barnett (Shale) Pearsall (Shale) Cove Point LNG 7 Osaka Gas acquired WI for Sanga-Sanga Block in Indonesia in Osaka gas invested in Snorre oil field offshore Norway from Producing LNG Planning/Construction Upstream (LNG Source) Sanga Sanga (Bontang LNG) (Source: JOGMEC Sydney Office) Utility companies are expanding to North America ( ).

9 Upstream Investment by Japanese LNG Buyers (Tokyo Gas Challenge 2020 Vision ) 8 (Source: Tokyo Gas Challenge 2020 Vision, Nov )

10 Upstream Investment by Japanese LNG Buyers (Osaka Gas Field of Dreams 2020 ) 9 (Source: Osaka Gas Field of Dreams 2020, Mar )

11 Key Word for Investing on Upstream Project for Utility Companies 10 Understanding Upstream Business Conventional -> Unconventional (CSG, Shale) Risk Hedge (Seller / Buyer) Equity Lifting

12 Upstream Investment by Japanese Trading Houses in Australia & PNG Enfield/Vincent Oil Field Browse FLNG Canning Basin Exploration PNG-LNG Talisman Gas Project Meridian CSG 11 MIMI is Japan Australia LNG Pty Ltd, 50:50 joint venture between Mitsubishi & Mitsui. MIMI established for North West Shelf LNG project in NWS LNG Surat Basin CSG Otway Gas Project Trading houses are active in exploration projects as well as development projects. Mitsui and Mitsubishi hold some other exploration licenses offshore WA. Producing Construction Planning/Exploration Casino/Henry Gas Field Bass Gas Project (Source: JOGMEC Sydney Office)

13 Qatargas / RasGas LNG Equatorial Guinea LNG Upstream/LNG Investment by Japanese Trading Houses Abu Dhabi LNG Malaysia LNG Mozambique LNG Oman/Qalhat LNG Sakhalin 2 LNG (Source: JOGMEC Sydney Office) Brunei LNG Sanga Sanga (Bontang LNG) Donngi Senoro LNG LNG Canada (Cordova/Montney) Barnett (Shale) Tangguh LNG Eagle Ford (Shale) Producing LNG Planning/Construction Upstream (LNG Source) Alberta (CBM) Marcellus (Shale) Cove Point LNG Cameron LNG Peru LNG 12 Starting in SE Asia, Middle East and Australia 70 s to 80 s Brunei 1972 (1st Cargo) Abu Dhabi 1977 Malaysia 1983 North West Shelf 1989 In Middle East 90 s to early-00 s Qatargas 1996 RasGas 1999 Oman 2000 Qalhat 2005 Then, diversify globally Africa Latin America North America

14 Upstream Investment by Japanese LNG Buyers (Mitsubishi Corporation) 13 (Source: Mitsubishi Corporation New Strategic Direction, May )

15 Key Word for Investing on Upstream Project for Trading Houses 14 LNG Value Chain Production -> Liquefaction -> Shipping -> Marketing Tolling vs Upstream/Liquefaction Packaging (Especially in North America) Conventional / Unconventional Potential asset for LNG project

16 Emerging Japanese LNG Player 15 Producing & Developing LNG INPEX - Tangguh, Darwin LNG, Ichthys, Prelude JX Nippon -PNG LNG JAPEX - Sanga Sanga (Bontang LNG) Potential projects for LNG INPEX - Abadi FLNG INPEX & JGC - BC Shale w/nexen JAPEX - Pacific NorthWest LNG (Source: Wood Mackenzie Emerging Japanese LNG Players, March, 2014 ) Liquefaction & Export project (Tolling) IDEMITSU - Triton LNG LNG off-take INPEX - Ichthys, (Abadi?) JX Nippon - Gorgon JAPEX - MLNG 3, PNW-LNG TOSHIBA - Freeport LNG

17 Emerging Japanese LNG Player LNG Terminal (Operating) LNG Terminal (Constructing or Plan) 16 LNG Terminal by Japanese E&P companies INPEX Naoetsu terminal (Cap: 1.5mpta) Completed in 2013 Receive Ichthys LNG (0.9mtpa) from 2016 (SPA with Chubu for 1.0MMton in ) JAPEX Soma terminal (Cap: NA) Under construction (Complete in 2018) Receive PNW LNG (1.2mtpa) from 2018 (Source: Tokyo Gas LNG Terminals in Japan, Jul 2013 ) JX Nippon Hachinohe terminal (Cap: 1.0mpta) Under construction (Complete in 2015) Receive Gorgon LNG (0.3mtpa) from 2015

18 Conclusion 17 LNG demand in Japan will remain high over the next 5years. Almost half of the supply will come from Australia in Utility companies and Trading houses continue to be active investing in upstream LNG projects to secure a stable and diversified supply of LNG. E&P companies and other new players may enter the LNG industry not only as a developer but also as a off-taker as well.