SCIENTIFIC SUPPORT TO EFFICIENT VEHICLES

Transcription

1 SCIENTIFIC SUPPORT TO EFFICIENT VEHICLES TECHNOLOGY IS THE KEY: BOTH ECONOMICALLY AND ENVIRONMENTALLY SUSTAINABLE CHRIS BEDDOES Director General, EUROPIA JRC Conference Brussels, 26 th March 2013

2 Cost effective, affordable mobility is vital for a competitive economy and to the individual s sense of freedom. Clarity on our goals, and good measurement of progress: Life cycle energy use; cost effectiveness Transport energy demand has stabilised: Energy demand for cars is reducing but all other transport demand is increasing Resources are limited: not only raw materials, but also skills and money, so we must make the best of all of them. But oil will be available for many years. Technology is king: not just the bright shiny new, but also continuous improvement of existing. green vs black is an artificial distinction. Technologies must be both environmentally and economically sustainable. Policy can encourage, promote these technologies but cannot dictate or mandate their development. 2

3 Good science depends on clarity and measurement: define what we mean by efficiency...or are there other goals? Well to wheel (W2W) efficiency should be the basis for evaluation of efficiency: But the choice of: energy in the life cycle, or may produce different results. emissions in the life cycle GHG life-cycle emissions per unit of energy Production in Europe covered by Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) Economic efficiency: lowest cost mobility? Crude Production 1 4 % Refining 8 10% Distribution & Retail 1% Combustion of unit of energy 85% Other goals, such as reduction of EU dependence on imported raw materials? WELL TO TANK ~15% (production) TANK TO WHEELS ~85% (consumption) Source: CONCAWE WELL TO WHEELS

4 Oil demand changes in Europe from now to 2040: Light duty vehicle demand is the only part reducing Demand MBDOE Marine: demand up by 15% Aviation: demand up by 40% Heavy duty vehicles: demand up by 20% Light duty vehicles: demand down by 30% Technology: vehicle weight and engine efficiency, matched by evolving liquid fuels Economics and effects of high taxation: 2/3 of pump price Fuel substitution when technology is sustainable 4

5 Technology has a big hurdle to overcome the physical constraints to replacement of liquid fuels by other energy sources 5

6 Policy makers should not choose technology but allow all technologies to compete for greater efficiency and economic sustainability on their merits. Set targets or goals based upon outcomes: be clear what we want Promote technological neutrality Realistic targets just ahead of economically achievable technology. Recognise the value of all technologies: Existing technologies have a long way to run R&D for new ideas, but do not build solutions on unsustainable subsidies. Use command and control measures with great care: - Market based measures, including taxation of fuels on their true merits. Infrastructure is precious - Do not destroy existing industries and jobs until replacements can economically replace them 6

7 Thank you for your attention Discover how oil is Fuelling Europe s Future You may be surprised! 7

8 Petroleum refining: Among top 3 innovating sectors in the EU-27 Figure: Innovative enterprises as a percentage of all enterprises in the EU-27 in 2008 Source: European Commission 8

9 Beyond 2030: oil will remain the main energy source for transport in 2050 even in the most ambitious IEA scenario The future transport energy mix in Europe will depend upon technology gains but is likely to be liquid based. 9

10 1. Set targets based upon outcomes Technological neutrality Realistic targets just ahead of economically achievable technology. 10

11 2. Recognise the value of all technologies: Existing technologies have a long way to run R&D for new ideas, but do not build solutions on unsustainable subsidies. Source: Ricardo 11

12 Use science and technology carefully to target improvements: End use efficiency, with low and moderate cost efficiency gains must be the starting points.

13 Transport: Heavy Duty Vehicles Long haul/heavy duty applications will require low carbon liquid fuels Source: Ricardo 13

14 CONCAWE/EUROPIA Member Companies represent 100% of EU Refining 14

15 Economic constraints limit the rapid penetration of substitutes to fossil liquid fuels in transport 15

16 A 30-50% reduction in new passenger vehicle fuel consumption is considered feasible over the next years - 35% 16 JRC Conference, March 2013

17 Transport: Heavy Duty Vehicles/high power applications offer opportunities for a range of efficiency improvements Source: Ricardo 17 JRC Conference, March 2013

18 Transport: Aviation Technology improvements in aircraft designs will continue to enable substantial fuel savings 18 JRC Conference, March 2013

19 Transport: Marine Technology and operation measures could reduce CO2 emissions from shipping by up to 75% 19 JRC Conference, March 2013

20 EU Commission legislative proposal on infrastructure for alternative fuels Key point: mandate for Member States on infrastructures build up (2020) LNG (road): 400 km between 2 refuelling points on TEN-T roads 144 units LNG (marine): all main EU ports to be equipped 139 units (*) CNG (road): max 150 km between 2 refuelling points 654 units Hydrogen (road): max 300 km between 2 refuelling points (**) 77 units Electricity (road): 8 mln recharging points, of which 10% publicly accessible Commission s cost estimate: ca. 9 bn (*) by for inland waterway ports (**) only in those Member States (14) where hydrogen stations are already present 20 JRC Conference, March 2013

21 Policies should first focus on technologies with negative or moderate cost JRC Conference, March 2013

22 Relative Fuel Consumption: 2006 to 2035 Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement Assumes constant vehicle performance with 20% weight reduction 30-50% reduction in LD vehicle fuel consumption is feasible with higher cost by a combination of: Improved engines and transmissions Vehicle weight and drag reduction Source: J. Heywood, MIT Consortium: On the Road in 2035 (2008) 22

23 Conventional Fuel ICEs & Hybrid Powertrains Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement 23

24 Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement 24

25 Representative Energy Flow in an Urban Drive Cycle Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement Source: J. Heywood, MIT Consortium: On the Road in 2035 (2008) 25

26 Projected Improvement in Fuel Consumption holding vehicle size and performance at today s levels Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement Source: J. Heywood, MIT Consortium: On the Road in 2035 (2008) 26

27 Gasoline-equivalent TTW Fuel Consumption holding vehicle size and performance at today s levels Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement Source: J. Heywood, MIT Consortium: On the Road in 2035 (2008) 27

28 Projected Tank-to-Wheel Energy Use holding vehicle size and performance at today s levels Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement Source: J. Heywood, MIT Consortium: On the Road in 2035 (2008) 28

29 Lifecycle GHG Emissions holding vehicle size and performance at today s levels Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement Source: J. Heywood, MIT Consortium: On the Road in 2035 (2008) 29