Water Security in the Canadian prairies science and management challenges. Howard Wheater, Canada Excellence Research Chair

Transcription

1 Water Security in the Canadian prairies science and management challenges Howard Wheater, Canada Excellence Research Chair

2 Water is essential for society s basic needs: Clean drinking water Food 80% of the world s water use is for irrigation Energy production hydropower; cooling for thermal stations; oil and gas extraction Industry Environment And Floods are one of the world s most damaging natural hazards

3 Global water challenges Aral Sea Pakistan 2010 Texas 2012 New York 2012 Lake Winnipeg/Red River

4 Global water challenges Current issues: 900 million lack access to clean drinking water billion live in water stressed areas unsustainable use of water declining groundwater levels, dry rivers increasing competition for water resources at local, regional and international scales degradation of water quality from over-abstraction and pollution

5 And the future: Increased demand o o o o Population growth Economic development Agriculture Energy Environmental change o o Land use and land management change Climate change 6 billion in water-scarce areas by 2050?

6 Some implications: Society has reached the limits of demand-driven water management Issues of sustainability must be addressed these include trans-boundary issues Complex problems of uncertain water futures must be confronted and managed A consistent policy agenda is needed for water, food and energy, addressing climate change adaptation and mitigation

7 Water in the Canadian Prairies Saskatchewan River Basin

8 From global to local - Water Security for the Prairies The prairie provinces depend on the Saskatchewan river o o 75% of Saskatchewan River water comes from the Rockies (40-50% of basin does not contribute to river flows) < 1% of flow originates in Saskatchewan, but 70% of population uses river water This river is a critically important resource for three provinces, and raises inter-provincial and inter-sector issues o 86% of consumption of South Saskatchewan River goes to irrigation

9 But: The South Saskatchewan river has reached limits for use in southern Alberta Pollution is changing its water quality Climate change and land management are changing the land and its water in complex ways, affecting river flows and prairie hydrology Water governance in the prairie provinces is complex and fragmented

10 Temperature Trends at Elevation Marmot Creek, 1962-Present Winters are warmer by 3 to 4 o C since the 1960s Harder & Pomeroy

11 Floods Saskatoon Summer Precipitation Summer (April-Sept) Precipitation [mm] Hydrologic year (Oct 1-Sept 30)

12 High River, Alberta, June

13 Prairie Drought of Most Expensive Natural Disaster in Canadian History $5.8 billion decline in GDP $3.6 billion drop in agricultural production, ,000 jobs lost BC, Alberta forest fires Saskatchewan dust storms

14 Concentration (mg/l) Concentration (mg/l) Bow River above Lake Louise 0 May-73 May-83 May-93 May-03 May Date (Month-Year) Bow River above Canmore 0 May-73 May-83 May-93 May-03 May-13 Concentration (mg/l) Date (Month-Year) Bow River at Cochrane 0 May-73 May-83 May-93 May-03 May-13 Date (Month-Year) Calgary Total Phosphorous Concentration ( ) Concentration (mg/l) Concentration (mg/l) Red Deer River upstream HWY 2 Bridge 0 May-73 May-83 May-93 May-03 May Date (Month-Year) Red Deer Bow River below Carseland Dam 0 May-73 May-83 May-93 May-03 May-13 Date (Month-Year) Concentration (mg/l)) Concentration (mg/l) Red Deer River at Nevis Bridge 0 May-73 May-83 May-93 May-03 May-13 Date (Month-Year) Bow River at Cluny 0 May-73 May-83 May-93 May-03 May-13 Concentration (mg/l) AB Surface Water Quality Guideline (0.05 mg/l) Concentration (mg/l) Red Deer River near Morrin Bridge 0 May-73 May-83 May-93 May-03 May-13 Date (Month-Year) Concentration (mg/l) Red Deer River near Blindloss AB 0 May-73 May-83 May-93 May-03 May-13 Date (Month-Year) Concentration (mg/l) Saskatoon L. Diefenbaker Concentration (mg/l) Concentration (mg/l) S. Saskatchewan River near Clarkboro Ferry 1 0 May-73 May-83 May-93 May-03 May-13 Date (Month-Year) South Saskatchewan River near Outlook 0 May-73 May-83 May-93 May-03 May-13 Date (Month-Year) South Saskatchewan River near Leader 0 May-73 May-83 May-93 May-03 May-13 Date (Month-Year) Date (Month-Year) Bow River near Ronalane Bridge South Saskatchewan River at HWY Concentration (mg/l) Oldman River near Brocket May-73 May-83 May-93 May-03 May-13 Date (Month-Year) Concentration (mg/l) Olman River above Lethbridge May-73 May-83 May-93 May-03 May-13 1 Concentration (mg/l) May-73 May-83 May-93 May-03 May-13 Date (Month-Year) Olman River at HWY 36 N of Taber South Saskatchewan River above Medicine Hat 1 Concentration (mg/l) May-73 May-83 May-93 May-03 May-13 Date (Month-Year) Medicine Hat Date (Month-Year) Lethbridge Concentration (mg/l) May-73 May-83 May-93 May-03 May-13 Concentration (mg/l) May-73 May-83 May-93 May-03 May-13 Date (Month-Year) Date (Month-Year)

15 And what about climate futures?

16 Change in air temperature (K) (comparison with mean) CanESM2 model, RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 experiments, 11-year running mean Source: Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis

17 Climate futures for western Canada

18 Projected change: seasonal precipitation [( ) vs. ( )] North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program

19 Climate change and variability: observed twentieth century droughts were relatively mild when compared to pre-settlement on the Prairies, but these periods are likely to return (and even worsen) during this century (Bonsal et al., 2012)

20 Global Institute for Water Security Saskatoon, Saskatchewan National Hydrology Research Centre Founded full/associate members, 87 student members, supports 156 personnel. SaskRB is a focus for inter-disciplinary research

21 The GIWS programme themes: a) Climate change and water security b) Land-water management and environmental change c) Sustainable development of natural resources d) Socio-hydrology e) Water and health f) Water and wastewater treatment g) Groundwater, hydrogeology and sustainability

22 Changing Cold Regions Network This Network aims to understand, diagnose and predict interactions amongst the cryospheric, ecological, hydrological and climatic components of the changing Earth system at multiple scales with a geographical focus on Western Canada's rapidly changing cold interior.

23 SaskRB Project - Research Sites A Regional Hydroclimate Project of the World Climate Research Programme

24 Rocky Mountain Research Basins - Marmot Creek

25 Boreal Forest Research Sites BERMS/BOREAS

26 Prairie Research Sites St Denis Kenaston Smith Creek

27 Lake Diefenbaker/Swift Current Creek Algal bloom Sept

28 The SaskRB project has delivered: new instrumentation and process insights for key biomes new understanding and modelling of threats to water quality improved large-scale hydrological models new stochastic downscaling tools for climate futures new approaches to water resource vulnerability user-focused decision support tools for water resource futures.

29 Daily Precipitation, Saskatoon Precipitation (mm/day) Historical Saskatoon Precipitation (mm/day) Year Future Saskatoon Year

30 Water Resources Management Model South Saskatchewan River Basin in Alberta

31 Vulnerability to climate change Probability of system failure, southern Alberta as function of changing Rocky Mountain flows 20 years 40 years 60 years

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33 Socio-hydrology - understanding and managing complex human-natural systems Group mind-mapping exercise. Stakeholder workshop, Canmore, Alberta, March 2012

34 Water futures in Saskatchewan: New decision support tools

35 Groundwater, hydrogeology and sustainability Peach (2014) A review of groundwater and hydrogeological issues for SK and the development of a research strategy Key drivers: Groundwater provides essential supplies to rural communities, farmers and the mining and oil and gas industries, and a strategic reserve in times of drought Geological pore space is heavily used for waste water disposal and CO 2 sequestration Groundwater is vulnerable to pollution; remediation, where possible, is often costly

36 The Growth Agenda

37 Mining, hydrogeology and water security 90% growth expected from existing potash mines New potash mines anticipated over next years Increase expected in water requirements Increases expected in waste water disposal to deep geological environment Need to understand mine inflow and flooding problems Increasing requirement from potash and uranium industry for long term closure plans and environmental protection

38 Oil and Gas, hydrogeology and water security Increasing development of oil and gas resources Fracking for oil and gas extraction Enhanced oil recovery water flooding and use of carbon dioxide Carbon capture and storage Increased water requirements for operations Disposal of waste and contaminated water

39 Other influences on hydrogeology and water security Increased domestic and municipal water demand. Climate change - increased water demands and drought frequency. Could groundwater provide a strategic reserve? Land management change e.g. tillage, loss of wetlands Integrity of old and abandoned wells and boreholes Radioactive waste disposal in Saskatchewan Role of groundwater in sustaining baseflows especially under climate change

40 Science needs for sustainable development - 1 Complex hydrogeology and large land area Small but growing population; economy growing at an unprecedented rate Strong knowledge base to build upon, but key knowledge gaps Knowledge distributed between industry, consultants, government and academia, often in informal reports

41 Science needs for sustainable development - 2 Improved understanding of quantity and quality of long term yield and storage replenishment of groundwater resources Fate and transport of waste waters injected into the subsurface to allow safe and sustainable development limited regional assessment If groundwater is to be considered a strategic resource then confidence in its reliability is required

42 Baseline Survey Needs Improved digital elevation models in specific areas of groundwater development Airborne geophysics to establish disposition, structure and morphology of buried valley aquifers. Monitoring of well water quality in areas of high groundwater demand in specific aquifers Continued and perhaps accelerated mapping and characterisation of groundwater resources.

43 EM survey of buried aquifers Helicopter-borne time-domain electromagnetic (EM) survey over the Spiritwood buried-valley aquifer in southern Manitoba, just north of the border with North Dakota (from Oldenborger et al., 2012). The geometry of the main Spiritwood buried valley ( 10 km wide) is readily apparent as a moderate conductivity feature (blue)

44 Issues: Skills availability a) Scarcity of hydrogeological skills in academia, government and industry b) At senior levels knowledge and skills held by a few retired or near retirement scientists c) Need opportunities for young scientists to develop expertise Possible solutions a) Taught Masters course b) Joint funding for PhD and Masters degrees (Ind, Gov, Univ) c) Short specialist courses (e.g. groundwater modelling)

45 Recommendations - 1 Coordinate groundwater and hydrogeological research. Currently, the groundwater and hydrogeological science base is fragmented between multiple stakeholders. Prioritise research agenda through a panel of government, industry and academic representatives Conduct an audit of groundwater and hydrogeological research, data and knowledge and make the results accessible, as much as possible, via an integrated web-portal.

46 Recommendations - 2 Begin a programme and seek funding from relevant stakeholders to further develop the knowledge base required for robust evidence-based decision-making. Priorities should be set by a panel comprising stakeholders and academia. Develop a comprehensive Sustainable Groundwater Management Plan for the Province with input from relevant stakeholders, academia and the public at large.

47 Recommendations - 3 Review the management and regulatory practices and framework to ensure that development proceeds as fast and as sustainably as possible, in light of the new knowledge being produced, the rapid growth that has occurred and increasing competition for groundwater and pore space in deep geological formations. Develop training opportunities for Highly Qualified Personnel to meet the needs of government, industry and the university sector for hydrogeological and related expertise.

48 Challenges for hydrogeology and groundwater Rapid development of agriculture and natural resources in the context of a warming climate presents challenges to groundwater science and management Need for new research and survey to provide the basis for sound management in the face of increasing pressures Saskatchewan has a strong base on which to build the science needed to meet those challenges, but action is needed now to ensure sustainable development over the next several decades Next steps: Steering Committee formed, includes government, industry, academia, first meeting 14 April

49 In conclusion: The problems society now faces with respect to water security are complex and multi-faceted. The SaskRB is no exception. New science and modelling tools are needed to understand and manage change. The Global Institute for Water Security is working to address these. Major challenges arise in developing consistent policy across sectors water is inextricably linked to food, energy and environmental values. Adaptive management will be needed. Groundwater is out of sight and out of mind. But a new partnership offers a way for SK to address key challenges.

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