ESSP: developing an integrated Earth system science approach

Transcription

1 ESSP: developing an integrated Earth system science approach Rik Leemans Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University Chair ESSP science committee Website:

2 o We lived between fields, orchards and forests and worked in the garden and with animals. o Now 50 years later this area is part of the town: build-up area! Global change is also local change!

3 The ESSP programmes provide policy relevant information in all stages of understanding and dealing with environmental problems.

4 Amsterdam Declaration (2001) The Declaration points out that a new system of global environmental science is required that will: o integrate across disciplines, environment and development issues and the natural and social sciences; o collaborate across national boundaries on the basis of a shared and secure infrastructure; o intensify efforts to enable the full involvement of developing country scientists; and o employ the complementary strengths of nations and regions to build an efficient international system of global environmental science. In 2008, the ESSP Review Panel noted that the Amsterdam Declaration(2001) is more valid today than seven years ago.

5 What is Earth System Science? ESS is the study of the Earth System with an emphasis on observing, understanding and predicting global environmental changes involving interactions between land, atmosphere, water, ice, biosphere, societies, technologies and economies. To understand the physical-biogeochemical-ecologicalhuman systems as complex, dynamic and evolving entities, both natural, technological, social, and economic sciences are needed in a interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary way.

6 The IGBP structure

7 Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) ESSP facilitates the study of the Earth s environment as an integrated system in order to understand how and why it is changing, and to explore the implications of these changes for global and regional sustainability.

8 Structure since 2002 Earth System Science Partnership: Joint science and capacity building

9 Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training The objective of START s research-driven capacity building activities is to engage the scientific communities of developing regions in international collaborative scientific research and policy discussions related to global change. Through a framework of regional research centers, research nodes, science committees and secretariats, START: o Conducts research on regional aspects of global change o Provides fellowship and education opportunities o Shares knowledge, expertise and data o Bridges between science & society to support decision making o Mobilizes financial, institutional and human resources.

10 ESSP Contribution to policy relevant scientific assessments Almost half of the contributors to IPCC AR4 are WCRP/IGBP/IHDP/DIVERSITAS associated scientists Contributors include climatologists, meteorologists, atmospheric chemists, paleoecologists, ecologists, hydrologists, geographers, epidemiologists, economist and political scientists Also a strong contributions to the Ozone Assessment, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Agricultural Assessment WCRP serves an irreplaceable role for coordination within the science community, which in turn is invaluable to the IPCC Dr. Susan Solomon, IPCC Working Group I Co-Chair

11 IHDP has internalized the joint projects in its strategic plan ESSP joint projects Cross cutting themes With IGBP Methodologies

12 An example of integrated research: Global Carbon Project (GCP) The Global Carbon Project (GCP) was established in 2001 in recognition of the enormous scientific challenge and fundamentally critical nature of the carbon cycle for sustainability science. The scientific goal of the project is to develop a complete picture of the global carbon cycle, including both its biophysical and human dimensions together with the interactions and feedbacks between them.

13 Timeline for the new Climate scenarios Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

14 Linking to users: BioDISCOVERY

15 Structure since 2007 Earth System Science Partnership: Developing integrative science collaboration

16 Applied Earth System Science and ESSP Rapid BIOFUELS assessment (with SCOPE) What are the policy issues? What are the earth system linkages, land use needs, systemic feedbacks and uncertainties? What are plausible scenarios? What are the key vulnerabilities?

17 A new GEC Journal: Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability o Focuses on review and synthesis papers o Possibilities to publish science plans o Themes: Terrestrials systems; Aquatic systems; Climate systems; Energy systems; Carbon and Nitrogen cycles; Human systems o Will make outreach and educational material available

18 Structure since 2009 Earth System Science Partnership: Towards transdisciplinary integrative science

19 Now, it s more connected with collaboration with CGIAR We also effectively connect with researchers from other organizations. For example, the International Agricultural Research Institutes (CGIAR) and ESSP will together implement a 10-years, M$250 challenge programme on Climate Change and Agriculture with integrated scenarios to assess food systems and food security

20 Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR; >65 countries, foundations & organizations that fund research in 15 centers) To achieve sustainable food security and reduce poverty in developing countries through scientific research and research-related activities in the fields of agriculture, forestry, fisheries, policy, and environment.

21 CCCP Research Framework and Science Themes Climate Variability and Change Current agricultural & food systems Improved Environmental Benefits ANALYTICAL & DIAGNOSTIC FRAMEWORK 1 Diagnosis, context and tradeoff analysis 2 Role of macro-level policies 3 Researcher/stakeholder interactions Improved Livelihoods Improved Food Security Trade-offs ADAPTATION PATHWAYS 4 Managing climate risk 5 Progressive climate change 6 Adaptation through mitigation Adapted agricultural & food systems

22 Lecture for UNFCCC-SBSTA June SBSTA Dialogue on developments in research activities relevant to the needs of the Climate Convention. View on: kongresse/sb32/templ/play.php? id_kongresssession=2731&theme=unfccc This lecture (with one by IPCC) helped to re-create thrust in climate research and highlighted the urgency of the climate problem.

23 The IPCC error on Himalayan does not alter conclusions Chapter 10 Asia: Glaciers in the Himalaya are receding faster than in any other part of the world (see Table 10.9) and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high. Its total area will likely shrink from the present 500,000 to 100,000 km2 by the year 2035 (WWF, 2005). Technical Summary: Increases in temperature are expected to result in more rapid recession of Himalayan glaciers and the continuation of permafrost thaw across northern Asia (medium confidence). SPM: Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding, and rock avalanches from destabilized slopes, and to affect water resources within the next two to three decades.

24 Adaptation is needed in regions that do not strongly contribute to GHG emissions Increasing glacier lakes in the Himalaya Nayar, A. (2009). Climate: When the ice melts. Nature 461,

25 Observed changes in temperature Lyman, et al., Robust warming of the global upper ocean. Nature 465, Warmest years: 2005, 1998, 2009 and 2007

26 The IGBP climate change index

27 Extinctions of species

28 A World Bank Report 2010 Current Potential Vegetation Climate, land use and fire influence forests Strong Action Climate Change 0.9 C Climate Change 1.6 C Fate of Tropical Forest Uncertain Application of REDD+ initiatives could lead to a win-win situation for biodiversity and climate if Climate Change 0.9 C + appropriately implemented. 20% Deforest + Fire A program of significant forest Current restoration would be a prudent Trends measure to build in a margin of safety. Climate Change 3.2 C + 50% Deforest + Fire Tropical Forest to Shrub Tropical Forest Shrublands Savanna Analyses using the CPTEC-PVM2.0 model Tropical Forest Lost Tropical Forest to Savanna

29 Before bleaching Rising sea surface temperatures and CO 2 concentrations are projected to damage tropical coral reefs Fraction of coral reefs with recurrent severe bleaching Impact with no thermal adaptation [CO 2 ] atm 700 ppm in 2100 [CO 2 ] atm 550 ppm in 2100 Impact with 1.5 C thermal adaptation of corals After bleaching Biologically realistic rates of adaptation may allow coral reefs to adapt to thermal stress, but only under scenarios of strong climate mitigation (Donner PLoS ONE)

30 Health and socio-economic impacts o o Climate change may increase rural population at Malaria risk by 36 to 89% by 2050 Economic costs of additional Malaria burden $45 to $99 million per year but these costs may rise to $185 million per year Proportion loss of labour productivity in 2080s under A2. The largest negative effect will occur in Latin America and South East Asia

31 Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity in the Anthropocene (Nature, 461 : , Sept ) Johan Rockström, Will Steffen, Kevin Noone, Åsa Persson, F. Stuart Chapin, Eric F. Lambin, Timothy M. Lenton, Marten Scheffer, Carl Folke, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Björn Nykvist, Cynthia A. de Wit, Terry Hughes, Sander van der Leeuw, Henning Rodhe, Sverker Sörlin, Peter K. Snyder, Robert Costanza, Uno Svedin, Malin Falkenmark, Louise Karlberg, Robert W. Corell, Victoria J. Fabry, James Hansen, Brian Walker, Diana Liverman, Katherine Richardson, Paul Crutzen, Jonathan A. Foley

32 Planetary Boundary concept rests on three different scientific inquiries 1.Earth System and sustainability science (Understanding Earth System processes; ICSU, IGBP, ESSP, IPCC, MEA, sustainability science ) 2.Scale of human action in relation to the capacity of the planet to sustain it (Spaceship Earth, Herman Daly, Club of Rome, Ecological Economics, Ecological Footprint...) 3.Shocks and Abrupt change in Social- Ecological systems from local to global scales (Resilience, GAIA, tipping elements, guardrails...) Planetary Boundaries concept

33 Two different types of planetary boundary processes 1. Critical continental to global threshold 2. No known global threshold effect

34 Literature review and expert judgement of boundaries Climate change, nitrogen and biodiversity have already crossed their boundaries

35 Recent trends in CO 2 emissions Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience; Data: Peters & Hetwich 2009; Peters et al. 2008; Weber et al 2008; Guan et al. 2008; CDIAC 2009

36 Balance of emissions embodied in trade Warm colors Net exporters of embodied carbon Cold colors Net importers of embodied carbon MtC Year 2004 Peters and Hertwich 2008, Environ, Sci & Tech., updated

37 Transport of embodied emissions CO 2 emissions (PgC y -1 ) 5 4 Annex B Industrial Nations 55% 5 4 Annex B Industrial Nations 3 2 Emerging economies Non-Annex B 45% 3 2 Emerging economies Non-Annex B 25% of growth domestic production domestic consumption Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: Peters & Hetwich 2009; Peters et al. 2008; Weber et al 2008; Guan et al. 2008; CDIAC 2009

38 Natural CO 2 Sinks The decline in sinks causes a likely increase in the airborne fraction of 5% over the last 50 years. Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

39 Partitioning of CO 2 emissions CO 2 Partitioning (PgC y -1 ) CO 2 emissions Atmospheric CO 2 growth (i.e. the airborne fraction) Data: NOAA, CDIAC; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature geoscience

40 Required emission reduction to stabilise at 450 ppm International Energy Agency, 2009 World Energy Outlook

41 Different peak emissions to reach 450 ppm Rogelj, J., B. Hare, J. Nabel, K. Macey, M. Schaeffer, K. Markmann, and M. Meinshausen Halfway to Copenhagen, no way to 2oC. Nature Reports Climate Change Doi: /climate

42 Conclusions (UNFCCC talk) o A limitation in temperature increase of 2 o C as indicated in the Copenhagen Accords allows for adaptation and limits dangerous impacts, but there are large regional differences with respect to sensitivity, impacts and adaptive capacity. Climate protection, however, is not guaranteed. o Strong links between climate change and other environmental change issues, such as biodiversity. Synergies between climate and biodiversity policies may be explored o The observed increases in emissions and the reduction of land and ocean sinks accelerate climate change, rather than limiting it. o ESSP and partners can help to monitor, assess and understand progress towards desired targets

43 Contact Martin Rice & Ada Ignaciuk ESSP Coordinators Website: More information in our newsletters and magazines: