The context. The Climate Change challenge. An agenda for action

Transcription

1 A Global Perspective on the Interface Between Climate Change and Population Aging Growing Old in a Changing Climate: Exploring the Interface Between Population Aging and Global Warming Carlos Corvalán PAHO/WHO May 2011 Vancouver, Canada

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3 The context The Climate Change challenge An agenda for action

4 Rio Conventions UNFCCC UNCBD UNCCD Social "Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs Three Pillars of Sustainable Development Economic Environmental

5 Rio Declaration: Principle 1 Social Human beings are at the centre of concerns for sustainable development. They are entitled to a healthy and productive life in harmony with nature. Economic Environmental

6 Cardiovasc. diseases Diabetes Respiratory diseases Malaria Injuries Climate change Cancer Physical inactivity Transport Chemicals Diarrhoea Injuries Environment-society-individual interaction on health Causes of the causes Migration Direct causes Radiation Health Water, sanitation Energy Cardiovasc. diseases etc. Desertification Malnutrition Intestinal Diarrhoea parasites Drownings Malnutrition etc. Lung cancer Air pollution Vector breeding sites Water scarcity Respiratory infections COPD Cardiovasc. diseases Degraded ecosystems Malaria Dengue Leishmaniasis etc.

7 Env.DALYs/1000 capita per year Global inequalities: GNI versus EBD Sierra Leone Angola Guinea-Bissau Mozambique 150 India China 100 Brazil Finland Iceland USA Afro Amro Emro Euro Searo Wpro GNI per capita [US$]

8 Environmental burden of disease EBD by GNI and country population

9 Timor-Leste Cambodia Bhutan Nepal Bangladesh Viet Nam Yemen Lao PDR Indonesia Eritrea Maldives Oman El Salvador Guinea Nicaragua India China Life Expectancy at Birth 1980 & 2010 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Japan Canada ( ) ( ) Source: Data in:

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11 % 40 Population aged Japan Europe 30 Canada Russia China Brasil LAC Asia India Africa Source: Data in: (World Population Prospects 2008)

12 Population Aged 65+ (in millions) Population aged 65 or older by region and year Asia Africa Latin America and the Caribbean Europe Noth America World Population Prospects 2010

13 World populationaged million +273% million Western Europe population aged million 24.2 million +62% Source: Data in: (World Population Prospects) 2008)

14 World, urban, rural population World Population Urban population Rural population

15 The context The Climate Change challenge An agenda for action

16 Anthropogenic climate change drivers, impacts and responses IPCC: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report

17 Climate change impacts on other risk factors Causes of the causes Climate change Migration Energy Transport Proximal causes Chemicals Radiation Health Water, sanitation Vector breeding sites Air pollution Water scarcity Degraded ecosystems Desertification

18 The health effects of climate change Deaths from climate change: Undernutrition, malaria, diarrhea, floods (Series sources: WHO, IPCC 2007, Patz et al 2007)

19 Populations in a state of vulnerability from climate change Children Pregnant women Poor Indigenous populations Disabled Aging population Immune system decline Diminished physical mobility Aged More likely to experience poor health More likely to have reduced social contacts Diminished ability to regulate body temperature Reduced incomes leading to reduced quality of life Growing proportion of the population

20 Global status report on noncommunicable diseases the epidemic of these diseases is being driven by powerful forces now touching every region of the world: demographic ageing, rapid unplanned urbanization, and the globalization of unhealthy lifestyles. While many chronic conditions develop slowly, changes in lifestyles and behaviours are occurring with a stunning speed and sweep.

21 WHO. Global status report on noncommunicable diseases 2010 Of 57 million deaths in 2008, 36 million (63%) were due to NCDs 80% of NCD deaths occur in low and middle income countries Three quarters take place in people aged 60 and over

22 Climate change and Noncommunicable Diseases Frequency & intensity of heat extremes Temperature Rainfall Heat stress Ground level O 3 & Other air pollutants Airborne pollen & spores Structural damage CVD Respiratory disease Injuries Extreme weather events Impaired agriculture Reduced food yields nutrition insecurity Trauma Impaired livelihoods, impoverishment Poor general health Mental health Modified from Friel et al, 2010

23 ~ 70 thousand deaths

24 Population 65+ and Temperature change: Western Europe WMO: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision,

25 10000 World population : Increase in urban population b b +2.9 b World Population Urban population Rural population

26 Observed and expected temperature increase o C IPCC, 2007

27 Interacting dynamics: Growth of population aged 65 + Increase in global temperature to 2100 Increase in urban population (Red)

28 Multiple Global crises Social Poverty Food Inequality Financial crisis Energy Climate change Ecosystems Economic Environmental

29 2003: Europe - hottest summer since Belgium, France, German, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland and the United Kingdom to deaths attributed to the heatwaves. 2004: First tropical cyclone since the start of satellite records made landfall on the southern coast of Brazil. 2005: Top two warmest years along with Atlantic hurricane season was - most active season on record. Hurricane Katrina (US) was the deadliest hurricane to hit the country since 1928, killing over people. 2006: Drought in many parts of the US led to the worst wildfire season on record. Disastrous tropical cyclones hit some southeast Asian nations, including Typhoon Durian which killed nearly people in the Philippines.

30 2007: Mexico: worst flooding in five decades, causing the worst weather-related disaster in its history. 2008: China: worst severe winter weather in five decades in January, with over 78 million people affected by the freezing temperatures and heavy snow. 2009: Exceptional heatwaves in Australia. Bushfires caused more than 170 fatalities. Victoria recorded its highest temperature with 48.8 C, the highest temperature ever recorded so far south in the world. 2010: Ranked as the warmest year on record, along with 1998 and Pakistan:worst floods in its history. More than people were killed, and at least 1.8 million homes damaged or destroyed. July 2010 was the warmest month ever in Moscow since the beginning of modern meteorological records. Massive forest fires. China: high temperatures broke historical extremes. In August, Zhouqu County, Gansu Province, was hit by the most devastating flood and mudrock flow in the country s history, killing more than people.

31 The context The Climate Change challenge An agenda for action

32 WHO Global Workplan for addressing the implications of climate change for health and health systems Evidence Strengthen health systems Addressing the implications of climate change for health Raising awareness Partnerships

33 Workplan Objectives: 1. Promote and support the generation of scientific evidence 2. Raising awareness of the effects of climate change on health, in order to prompt action for public health measures. 3. Engage in partnerships with other United Nations organizations and sectors other than the health sector at national, regional and international levels, in order to ensure that health protection and health promotion are central to climate change adaptation and mitigation policies 4. Strengthen health systems to cope with the health threats posed by climate change, including emergencies related to extreme weather events and sea-level rise

34 Age-friendly city topic areas through a Climate Change lens Safe, walkable, accessible green spaces Green, public, active transport Energy efficient housing Participation in climate change groups Seniors as agents for change Promote green health care facilities Education on climate changes issues Volunteers Networks Active in social networks; Technology savoir-faire

35 Addressing the implications of climate change for the health of an aging population Evidence Strengthen health systems Addressing the implications of climate change for the health of an aging population Raising awareness Partnerships

36 Define a new paradigm for fully integrating Health in Sustainable Development Social Health Economic Environmental

37 Actions from the local to the global setting We have only one Mother Earth

38 Acknowledgements: Tapestry by the Dumont family based on an original drawing by Gilles Colette for World Health Day 2008