Developments supported by ALLIANCE and NERIS to cope with consequences of nuclear accidents

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1 Developments supported by ALLIANCE and NERIS to cope with consequences of nuclear accidents Hildegarde Vandenhove and Johan Camps COMET co-ordinator (HV), PREARE WP-lead (JC) Member of ALLIANCE (HV) and NERIS (JC) th ERMSAR Conference, Marseille, March 2015

2 Objective of presentation Briefly introduce the broad lines of activities for ALLIANCE and NERIS The European radiation protection arena Strategic research agenda Activities within ALLIANCE (radioecology) and NERIS (emergency management) platforms and associated projects related to severe nuclear accidents 2

3 The European Radiation Protection context Radiation Protection Federating Association SRA SRA SRA SRA 3

4 Mission of the platforms Mission of European Radioecology Alliance: integrate research and infrastructure to maintain and enhance radioecological competences and addresses scientific and educational challenges in assessing the impact of radioactive substances on humans and environment Mission of NERIS Platform: establish a forum for dialogue and methodological development between European organisations and associations taking part in decision making of protective actions in nuclear and radiological emergencies and recovery in Europe 4

5 ALLIANCE and NERIS today ALLIANCE: 20 organisations from 14 countries ALLIANCE NERIS: 49 organisations from 23 countries National and local authorities, technical support organisations, professional organisations, research institutes, universities and non-governmental organisations. NERIS 5

6 Supporting projects STrategy for Allied Radioecology (NoE) (1/2/11-30/6/15) Vital role is to develop a transition plan towards sustainability and long term funding for radioecological research, infrastructure and training and education COordination and implementation of a pan-europe instrument for radioecology (1/6/13-31/5/17) Strengthen the pan-european research initiative on the impact of radiation on the environment, including the food chain and the protection of wildlife Innovative integrated tools and Platforms for Radiological Emergency Preparedness and post-accident Response in Europe (1/2/13-31/1/16) Aims to close gaps that have been identified in nuclear and radiological preparedness following the first evaluation of the Fukushima disaster 6

7 A Major Tool: the Strategic Research Agenda s (SRA) Develop a long term vision on the needs and implementation of Radioecology and Emergency preparedness, response and recovery An adequate SRA is an important tool Usefulness for science and society Shared by stakeholders and researchers Realistic from an operational and scientific point of view Definition of long term needs and short term priorities 7

8 3 Challenges for Radioecology 1. Predict human and wildlife exposure in a robust way by quantifying key processes that influence radionuclide transfers and exposure 2. Determine ecological consequences under realistic exposure conditions 3. Improve human and environmental protection by integrating radioecology 8

9 Research Lines for Challenge 1 Predict human and wildlife exposure in a robust way by quantifying key processes that influence radionuclide transfers and exposure (COMET + Roadmap) 1. Identify and mathematically represent key processes that make significant contributions to environmental transfers of radionuclides and resultant exposures of humans and wildlife 2. Acquire the data necessary for parameterisation of key processes controlling the transfer of radionuclides 3. Develop transfer and exposure models that incorporate physical, chemical and biological interactions, and enable predictions to be made spatially and temporally 4. Represent radionuclide transfer and exposure at a landscape or global environmental level with an indication of the associated uncertainty For different exposure situations emergency, NORM, W&D 9

10 Research Lines for Challenge 2 Determine ecological consequences under realistic exposure conditions 1. Establish processes link radiation induced effects in wildlife from molecular to individual levels of biological complexity (STAR + Roadmap) 2. Determine what causes intraspecies and interspecies differences in radiosensitivity (STAR + Roadmap) 3. Understand the interactions between ionising radiation effects and other co-stressors (STAR) 4. Identify the mechanisms underlying multigenerational responses to long-term ecologically relevant exposures (COMET + Roadmap) 5. Understand how radiation effects combine in a broader ecological context at higher levels of biological organisation 10

11 Research Lines for Challenge 3 Improve human and environmental protection by integrating radioecology 1. Integrate uncertainty and variability from transfer modelling, exposure assessment, and effects characterisation into risk characterisation (partially COMET + Roadmap) 2. Integrate human and environmental protection frameworks (STAR) 3. Integrate risk assessment frameworks for ionising radiation and chemicals (partially STAR) 4. Provide a multi-criteria perspective in support of optimised decision making 5. Integrate ecosystem approaches, such as ecosystem services and ecological economics, within radioecology 6. Integrate decision support systems 11

12 Food chain modeling after a nuclear accident Improvement of radioecological models used in DSS in Europe, with inclusion of agricultural practice/production and dietary habit data for different regions Improve radiological parameters: includes those activities aimed to reduce parameter uncertainty (acquiring improved data, analysing existing data in a novel way) Incorporate the human-environment into models: includes regionspecific parameterisation of e.g. agricultural or dietary practices Optimise model complexity: what is the added value from the development of new, processed based models? Focus on post-accidental situations in both short and longer-term considering all terrestrial (focussing on agricultural) and freshwater foodstuffs 12

13 Food chain modeling after a nuclear accident: Outcome Having models and supporting parameter values and datasets to be able to accurately predict the first year dose to humans for different regions in Europe Improve the long-term predictions of radionuclide behaviour in terrestrial (agricultural) and freshwater ecosystems Improve the long-term predictions of effects of remedial measures More efficient soil - plant based remediation measures for different regions (through a greater understanding of the processes controlling plant uptake) Improve our understanding of interception on agricultural plants 13

14 Example - Food chain modeling after a nuclear accident Improving parameter values for food and dose modules of Decision Support Systems like RODOS, ARGOS and SYMBIOSE Improving parameter values for the Food and Dose Module Terrestrial (FDMT) Focus on regional adaptation of parameter values for RODOS and ARGOS: Category Contamination of plants due to direct deposition Parameter Relevant growth periods Leaf area indices (LAI) Yields Period of preparing winter feed Animal parameters Animal specific feeding rations and grazing periods Age-dependent consumption rates Human habits Seasonality of consumption rates (if relevant) Transfer factors Uptake from soil Migration rates (if necessary)

15 Influence of seasonality on activity concentration in foodstuffs (here milk) Cs-137 (Bq/kg) Deposition date May 20. mai aug. August October okt Deposition: 130 kbq/m Bq/kg Year.quarter År (kvartal) Concentration in cow`s milk for cows on intensive pasture (ploughing and fertilizing applied) assuming a grazing period that lasts until 15 November

16 Forest radioecology in (post-) emergency Objective: reduce uncertainties in assessments of short- and long-term impacts of radioactive contamination in forested areas Focus: Key processes and variables/factors contributing most to the overall uncertainties. Added value (for (post-)accident situations) Improve ability to predict radionuclide concentrations in trees and forest products after an accident, on timescales of months to a few years Determine likely transfer to humans via wild foods Collect more data, establishing more fully characterised scenarios for model validation 16

17 Marine radioecology: Objectives To consolidate or develop prediction tools usable to characterize and model transport, transfers, fate and radiation exposure for man and marine wildlife of accidental releases of radioactivity to the marine environment To provide dynamic models incorporating spatial and temporal processes, for the early- to midterm period after release, before more stable conditions tending to equilibrium are reached To develop research and studies based on experimental or in-situ measurements to improve knowledge on transfer processes for benthic and pelagic organisms To improve knowledge on radioecological marine transfers in non-equilibrium situation 17

18 Marine radioecology: Expected outcome Understand long-term behavior and fate of radionuclides released from Fukushima e.g. sustained concentrations due to ongoing discharges and land runoff Compare and test robust 'first-generation' dynamic models, and develop a 'second generation' of models incorporating food web processes Look at stochastic modelling for biokinetic processes to provide more complete information about bioaccumulation processes in different trophic levels Begin to fill the many data and knowledge gaps, especially concerning benthic organisms and their interplay with sediment compartments Explore potential relationships between biological half-lives in laboratory experiments and ecological half-lives observed in the field Couple biological transfer models with ocean transport and dispersion models (e.g. PREPARE project, STERNE model) 18

19 Example Develop operational models to predict radionuclide dispersion and contamination of water and marine species, incorporating spatial and temporal processes 131 I concentrations in seawater and in macroalgae 19

20 Strategic Research Agenda NERIS: 3 challenges Atmospheric & aquatic modelling Needs for improvement Key Topic 1: Atmospheric dispersion modelling Key Topic 2: Aquatic dispersion modelling Better dose assessments and decision support based on improved knowledge: source term, scenarios, etc. Key Topic 3: Improvement of existing Decision Support Systems Key Topic 4: Data mining, information gathering and exchange including providing information to stakeholders and mass media Key Topic 5: Improvement the decision making processes Stakeholder involvement and local preparedness and communication strategies Key Topic 6. Stakeholder engagement and dialogue Key Topic 7: Social media/networking technology 20

21 Key Topic 1: Atmospheric dispersion modelling 1. Modelling approaches for complex setting (urban or confined areas) 2. Data assimilation and inverse modelling (partially PREPARE) Development and/ or integration of computational tools in existing DSSs for assimilation of atmospheric measurements (e.g. gamma radiation dose rates, concentration) and/or inverse modelling to estimate unknown source term (location, emission rate) in urban areas and in open spaces ( partially in PREPARE) 3. Non conventional emissions (fires, explosions) 4. Fine tune modelling parameters and algorithms Extent capability of dispersion models in DSSs to treat phenomena that currently are not considered, such as deposition due to snow (link with ALLIANCE) 5. Optimize use of meteorological instruments 6. Long-duration releases Updated models able to simulate very long-duration releases to air by automatic update of meteorological data, restart of dispersion models and user update of source term information (partially PREPARE, link with ALLIANCE) 21

22 Long lasting releases Development of operational procedures for long lasting releases: Review of existing procedures for long lasting releases and identification of possible needs for improvements by performing scenario calculations performed on a European level. Different potential source terms Investigations about emergency management options Weather statistics ; Where and when to perform actions 1st year dose Severe releases start 21 h after reactor shutdown and continue for 50 h Germen weather conditions, near range Advection dispersion model JRodos screenshot with 20 msv and 100 msv isoline

23 Key Topic 2: Aquatic dispersion modelling 1. Urban hydrology (Link with ALLIANCE future roadmap) Development and implementation in existing DSSs of models to predict activity concentrations in urban fresh water supply system due to contamination of freshwater basins from radioactive cloud in urban waste water fresh water supply system due to washout of deposited RNs in urban areas 2. Models for coastal areas (PREPARE, interaction ALLIANCE) 3. Coupling with weather forecast models in DSS (PREPARE) 4. Runoff to sea (partially PREPARE, interaction ALLIANCE) Coupling with runoff (land to sea) models for emergency phase 5. Finite volume models For prolonged emergency phase and for long-term assessment, transform existing compartment models into models fully driven by time and space averaged hydrodynamic, sediment transport and ecosystem models to predict dose from food ingestion, inhalation and external exposure (interaction ALLIANCE) 23

24 Key Topic 3: Improvement of existing Decision Support Systems 1. Better quantification of source term 2. Customising of existing environmental models into the regional circumstances in Europe Adapt the thematic regionals databases and inputs according to the typical data and parameters compiled in the European statistical databases (EUROSTAR), revision of parameters used in radioecology models (with ALLIANCE) 3. Local radioecological models Development of local radioecological models interlinked with monitoring information and the more global and food chain dose models, integrated in general DSS. Look at capacity to run those model at local community, farmer level. (with ALLIANCE) 4. Improvement of existing DSS for radiological emergencies (with ALLIANCE) 5. Multiple Stressors 6. Tailor the output of DDS's to the user's needs 7. Rapid analytical tools 24

25 Improvement of DSS terrestrial/aquatic Improvement to terrestrial aspects of decision support systems Fukushima demonstrated importance of source term estimation not only based on information from plant operators From Chernobyl: deficits in representation of physico-chemical properties of radionuclides emitted in atmospheric dispersion models of ARGOS and RODOS Methodology and computational methods for simple estimate of source term using gamma dose rate measurements at the fence Ideas about the complex methods for source term estimations are under discussion How to model particles in the ADM under preparation Improvement to aquatic aspects of decision support systems Aquatic models in decision support systems far less developed than those for terrestrial ecosystems (apparent for Fukushima accident) integrate state of the art aquatic models into the RODOS DSS and couple them with countermeasure simulation models

26 Key Topic 4: Data mining, information gathering and exchange, providing information to stakeholders and mass media 1. Analytical platform for data and information exchange Access/exchange platform collecting and distributing results from governmental and non-governmental organisations 2. Development of a knowledge data base (partially PREPARE, link with ALLIANCE) With scenarios and response, including lessons learned from historic events and tools developed in international handbooks such as the European handbooks On general nature of radiation emergencies, countermeasures, recovery 3. Trustworthiness of information How social media can be used to improve emergency response and better cooperate and communicate with the public Key Topic 5: Improving the decision making process 1. Assessment of and communication on uncertainties 2. Coupling of DSS with Command and Control (C2) systems 3. Robust decision taking 26

27 Analytical Platform (AP) Platform for information collection and exchange: Develop an Analytical Platform (AP) for information analysis and exchange in time of nuclear or radiological crisis events allowing discussion between experts on an expert-level and to widespread congruent information on the current situation to public including mass media. Analytical platform will cover all phases of an emergency and the functionalities will support uncertainty handling in the early beginning of the emergency in case information is sparse.

28 Stakeholder involvement and local preparedness and communication strategies Key Topic 6: Stakeholder engagement and dialogue 1. Defining stakeholders and framing problems 2. Stakeholder engagement database 3. Public participation and dialogue (PREPARE) Key Topic 7: Social media/networking technology 1. Public behaviour response analysis 2. Assessments of mechanisms by which public gains info (PREPARE) 3. Assessments of factors of social trust in emergency situations (PREPARE) 28

29 Information & participation of the public 3 areas of focus: Emergency & post-emergency expertise networks interactions Information & participation of affected populations Evaluation & improvement of global communication (media) General objectives: Investigate the conditions and means for pertinent, reliable and trustworthy information to be made available to the public in due time and according to its needs in the course of nuclear emergency and postemergency contexts Taking into account complexity and dynamic dimensions of information flows Grounding on the empirical analysis on the dynamic of information related to the Fukushima experience (in Japan and Europe) but also on other available experiences in the EU

30 Near future Further develop and activate roadmap of Radioecology and Emergency preparedness Topics selected for second OPERRA call (12/3/2015) Development of monitoring strategies, processes and tools Spatial and temporal environmental modelling and human dose assessment after a nuclear accident Development of health surveillance procedures Biological indicators of radiation exposure, effects, health risk and disease susceptibility to inform emergency management and epidemiological studies 31 31