Analyzing Hawaii s Energy Eco-system

Transcription

1 Analyzing Hawaii s Energy Eco-system Chris Yunker Hawaii State Energy Office Energy Systems & Planning Program Manager

2 Hawaii s Energy Choice In some ways the question Hawaii faces is straight forward Business as Usual Energy Independence Our vision for Hawaii s energy Landscape is a Hawaii that is energy independent, environmental and culturally sound, and adds value to Hawaii s people and businesses. Energy independence means breaking our addiction on imported fossil fuels. 2

3 Hawaii s Energy Roadmap However the road to energy independence is not easily navigated Renewable Portfolio Standard Charging Infrastructure Transit Oriented Development Electric Rate Design Battery Electric Battery Vehicles Storage Demand Response Hydrogen Vehicles Distributed Generation Bike Share Energy Efficiency Vehicle Miles Traveled Cohesive Strategy Needed The legislature has set an ambitious agenda for clean energy. But an agenda is not an action plan. While California boasts separate policies for energy efficiency, green house gas emissions, renewable energy, demand response initiatives and other environmental regulations, it has failed to take the important step of integrating and coordinating these policies. Little Hoover Commission Rewiring California: Integrating Agendas for Energy Reform The energy eco-system is a highly complex interdependent system A decision on any one policy can have a ripple effect across the entire system 3

4 Hawaii State Energy Office Energy Systems & Planning Branch (ESP) Comprehensive Energy Eco-System Roadmap: Our goal is to put the whole energy eco-system into perspective In order to prioritize high impact, cost effective activities to achieve energy independence ESP assess and reports the impact of existing and potential energy policies and projects on Hawaii s energy eco-system. We then look to enable high value activities through demonstrations and programs, legislation and regulatory proceedings.

5 Integrated Energy Modeling Inputs and Assumptions ALLOCATION BY ISLAND BY TECHNOLOGY EXISTING GENERATION OAHU Total Vehicles Alt. Vehicles % of Vehicles that are Alt. Fuel ---> 15% 774, ,000 RPS SCENARIO OVERVIEW OAHU HAWAII MAUI RPS Percentage 70% Generation Capacity Generation Capacity Generation Annual per capita Capacity VMT (MW) ---> 9,006 Actual RE Technology % (MWH) (MW) (MWH) (MW) (MWH) 67.1% Today % of Oahu Alt 2015 SCENARIO Total MWh w/o DGPV OAHU HAWAII MAUI Target Alternative Date OVERVIEW Fuel RPS Vehicles SCENARIO - ANALYSIS 2015 Select Islands for Scenario Analysis Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle 50% 60,000 % of remaining RPS Oahu Total Capacity Total Generation % of remaining Additional Capacity Generation % of remaining Additional Capacity % of remaining Fixed O&M Battery escalator Electric Vehicle 50% 1.0% to be filled (MW) (MWh) RPS to be filled (MW) (MWh) RPS to be filled (MW) 60,000 Generation (MWh) RPS to be filled (MW) Escalation HYDROGEN Variable Rate Hawaii VEHICLES O&M escalator Totals2.0% 0 0.0% 0 Actual MWh Use Maui Light Duty FCEVs 0% 0 Max Capacity Factor 95.0% 11,346,412 Plug-In Para-transit Bus Pilot 0% 0 RPS Sales Reserve Lanai 10,881,306 Plug-in Margin Delivery Truck Pilot 0% 25.0% 0 Scenario Total Molokai Plug-in RPS Gen Refuse Truck Pilot 0% 0 7,616,914 Open RPS Kauai Baggage Tow Tractor Pilot 0% 0 5,692,218 Fuel Cell Bus Pilot 0% 0 DG PV 465,106 Assumed System Losses 0.0% BEV Charging - Select only one Total Generation Home Charge 11,346,412 Total MWh Exported to Grid/Yr Off Peak (12am to 6am) (490,964) Generation Characteristics Max MW Exported to Grid in any Hr Calculate Scenario Resource Resource Minimum (1,175) Type/Fuel Battery Capacity (MWh) Battery Size Scenario CF Capacity (MW) Adequacy (%) Adequacy (MW) H2 Load Production (MW) - Select only (6,234) one Peak Demand Fixed O&M (MW) Variable O&M Fuel/Variable Baseload (Flat) Total Cost for Fuel ($/MWh) Total Costs 1,653 ALLOCATION BY ISLAND BY TECHNOLOGY LSFO 1, ,003, , ,963 Diesel , ,146 SNG Vehicle Mix Number of Vehicles kwh/day LNG BATTERY ELECTRIC VEHICLES Totals 120,000 Coal ,470, ,007,898 DGPV , , ,247 Additional Capacity RE Technology Utility Solar ,935 Generation (MWh) Wind , , ,645 DG PV Utility Solar Geothermal 25% 626 1,423,054 13% , % 293, ,611 8% ,916 Wind Biomass 30% 6,288 1,707, % 399, ,611 13% ,527 13% 285 6, ,527 Geothermal Biofuel 25% 199 1,423, % 19, % 160 1,138,444 5% ,611 BiomassBiogas 20% ,785 10% ,492 5% ,611 5% ,683 BiofuelHydro 0% - - 0% % 45, % 1, Biogas Ocean Tidal 0% - - 0% - - 0% - - 0% - - Hydro Ocean Thermal 0% - - 0% - - 0% - - 0% - - Ocean Tidal FOSSIL FUEL TOTAL 0% - 1, % 6,473, % % 646, , ,195 0% 1,007, Ocean Thermal RENEWABLE ENERGY 0% TOTAL % 1,069, % 526, ,247 0% - - Totals Ok --> 100% 7,226 5,396,560 2, ,542, ,357, ,173, ,419,193 1,127,442 6,382 1,619,737 Island Heat Rate (btu/kwh) Cost Smart (50% 12am-6am, 50% 11am-3pm) Off Peak Energy ($/MWh) 5

6 Resources Differ By Island Daily Wind Generation & Avg - Feb

7 Resource Diversity Daily Solar Generation & Avg - Aug 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Daily Wind Generation & Avg - Feb Peak Day Loads for Oahu, Maui, Hawaii and Total 1,600 Renewable Mix Other Metrics Scenario Util PV 100% 50% 33% 25% Wind 100% 50% 33% 25% Geothermal 100% 17% 25% Biofuel 17% 25% Peak Load (MW) 1,425 1, ,302 1,165 1,101 Min Load (MW) (1,364) (586) (5) (735) (442) (304) Storage (MWh) 6,224 2, ,785 1, ,400 1,200 1, Combined Load Oahu Hawaii Maui

8 Energy Transfer Between Sectors Electric and Ground Transportation Peak Load (MW) Min Load (MW) Storage (MWh) Base % RPS % w/ EV Evening Charge % w/ EV Smart Charge RPS modeled with 1/3 wind, 1/3 solar and 1/3 geothermal/biomass Assumes 140k Evs on Oahu and Maui combined 8

9 Questions for Stakeholders What scenarios do you want to see? Renewable % levels? Renewable mixes? How investments optimized for 50% compare at 70% or 100% Renewable? What penetration levels of DG, Batteries, E-drive vehicles? What programs, technologies and policies do you want assessed? How do Electric drive vehicles impact load, benefits and costs? How does TOD impact load, benefits and costs? Demand Response from traditional uses Air conditioning Load shifting (precooling) Electric water heaters Storage What metrics do you want reported on? Total energy imports / Total fossil fuel imports $/MGY petroleum reduction Average electric rates ($/kwh all in) Energy rates ($/kwh) Effective grid rates ($/kw) $/GHG reduction 9