Energy transition and renewables expansion under nascent market

Transcription

1 Energy transition and renewables expansion under nascent market 37th IAEE International Conference José María Valenzuela Director for Sustainability Deputy Secretariat for Planning and Energy Transition New York, June 16th, 2014

2 Mexico today- Electricity supply, dispatch and emissions

3 Mexico today Energy Generated Friday-Saturday Hydro Fossil fuels Geothermal Nuclear

4 Mexico today Emission in the overall GHG emissions balance 246 MtCO 2 e 249 MtCO 2 e 34% 17% 11 % 10% 23% 22% 67% 49% FUENTE: INEGEI y SEMARNAT- INECC

5 What has Mexico committed to achieve on clean energy and climate change?

6 Mexico s commitments Clean energy goal toward % % % % % Expected expansion on renewable energy and CHP towards 2018 Contrasting visions, for example, Bloomberg expects twice the amount of solar, even without reform.

7 Pricing signals - Externalities into the dispatch, planning and evaluation Emmissions from generation plants Value of externalities Total variable cost Variable cost Operational: Inventory New: Reference value Values by Environment authority or Proposal from CFE Value for compensation CFE Value utilized for the dispatching system Valores unitarios de la externalidad ambiental Dólares 2013 /Ton SO 2 NOx PST (PM10) Modificación en al generación por tecnología Tecnología Caso A Caso B Carbón 119 GWh 163 GWh Gas 99 GWh 80 GWh Combustóleo -218 GWh -243 GWh

8 Mexico s commitments Pricing signals - Taxes 0.0 /l 6.60 /l /l /l /l /l /l $/ton $/ton 15.6 $/ton $/ton

9 The Tehuantepec Itsmus Recent experience with variable renewables

10 Wind Energy Production

11 Wind Energy Production Variation in Wind Energy Production By the end of 2013 the wind energy installed capacity in the Eastern Control Area is 1,707 MW (representing 3.21% of the total generation capacity of México), generated by 18 win farms. The goal by 2018 to have more than 4,000MW. Ramps of wind generation have been measured with a relationship of MW/min., which implies a variation of generation from 0 to 1,100 MW in a period of time of two hours.

12 Institutional ssets 1. Targets and soon-to-be Renewable Portfolio Standards 2. Experience with Renewable Rources 3. Advanced forescasting (3-day ahead and 2-hour ahead) 4. Modern control center (EMS and SCADA) 5. Automatic Generation Control-AGC 6. Hydro Resources (intermitency management) Stored water Distribution by major hydroelectric

13 Energy reformaffordability, sustainability and growth

14 New instruments available proposed by the Federal Executive (under discussion at the Congress) Clean Energy Certificates SENER creates requirements for suppliers and qualified users to use a percentage of clean energy. Pollutant Emissions Certificates SENER and SEMARNAT determine the quantity of certificates available.

15 Generation Control/Dispatch Transmission Distribution Marketing Expansion Plan Expansion Plan Final Rates Now Generation Modality Approve Expansion Plan Dispatch Rules Reliability Standards Generator Interconnection Participate in Final Rates Permits Approve Expansion Plan Participate in Final Rates Market: Generation Expansion Operation of Market Planning and Interconnection Studies Final Rates Reform Requirements for Clean Energy Capacity Requirements Permits Market Monitor Reliability Standards Approve expansion plan Regulated Tariffs Supervision of Interconnection Minimum consumption to be Qualified User Svc. Quality Requirements Participate 15 in Final Rates

16 Partners ahead Challenges on policy, regulation and the market

17 Key Alliances 1.CIFF + NREL under 21st Century Power Partnership. 2.Denmark + Energienet-dk. 3.Porfolio of EU and member countries based assistance. 4.Portfolio of US bases assistance. Major gaps related to markets 1.Absence of wholesale energy price reference (but nodal pricing). 2.Absence of ancilliary services price reference 3.Absence of transmission expansion index 4.Absence of defined competitive renewable energy zones I. Mexican Roadmap for Grid Integration Based on the IEA Expert Group Report on Recommended Practices 16. Wind Integration Studies, with the support of NREL. II. Implementation Moving forward on: -Planning instruments - Resource location - Analysis for adequacy -Regulatory devices -Operational practices - Centralized and decentralized forcasting practices - Enhanced dispatching practices

18 José María Valenzuela Deputy Secretariat for Planning and Energy Transition