Trends and Climate Change projections of the Marine Commercial Fish Species in Spain

Transcription

1 International Congress on Climate Change and Fisheries (CONXEMAR-FAO) October 2 nd 2017, Vigo Trends and Climate Change projections of the Marine Commercial Fish Species in Spain Guillem Chust Marine Research Division - AZTI - Sukarrieta (Spain) and the core group: Maite Erauskin, Estibaliz Díaz, Haritz Arrizabalaga, Paula Alvarez, Leire Ibaibarriaga, Andrés Uriarte, María Korta, Nerea Goikoetxea, Unai Cotano 10/6/2017 1

2 Global trends of sea temperature 1900 to 2013 Local fisheries Rahmstorf et al Nature Climate Change Questions From global to regional cases studies Detection and attribution to climate change: How to do it? Examples Scenarios and what impacts to fish and fisheries: Ongoing research Examples of positive feedbacks in marine systems: Trophic amplification Are studies integrating overall impacts on Spanish fisheries? 2

3 Adaptation strategies to maintain the thermal optimum range Poleward shift(population) Migrate to deep cooler waters (individuals) Earlier spring phenological changes (individuals) 10/6/2017 3

4 Poleward shift in the distribution of North-East Atlantic Mackerel (Scomber scombrus) spawning Spawn from January to July 3 spawning components: - North Sea Western Southern C L I P E S Berge et al Bruge et al Frontiers in Marine Science

5 Biological data 289 km/decade ICES triennial mackerel egg surveys western & southern components Observed daily egg production 2013 (egg.m -2.day -1 )

6 Habitat modelling and poleward shift Hutchinson Ecological-niche Modelling: algorithm development (GAMs) (Causalities) 2. Ecological-niche Modelling: cross-validation (k-fold) Spawning Growth range Feeding range Adult tolerance range 3. Predicting the past (evidences of pressures) Model1 (population reconstruction) Model2 (thermalhabitatsuitability) 4. Projecting the future (Shifts in distribution and phenology) Helaouet and Beaugrand 2009 Chust et al ICES Journal of Marine Science 10/6/2017 6

7 Poleward shift in the distribution of Atlantic Mackerel spawning N 28 km per ºCsea warming Spawning 15 km/decade Thermal Niche 78 km/decade 10/6/2017 Bruge et al Frontiers in Marine Science

8 Approach to evaluate climate change impacts on commercial fishes Hydrodynamic Biogeochemical Fish Ciliates Copepods Flagellates Diatoms Nitrates Ammonium Small detritus Large detritus Process-based models SDM / ENM / Habitatmodel Distribution(location, extent), phenology, abundance, attribution

9 Future changes in the distribution of Atlantic Mackerel spawning RCP 4.5 RCP Expansion Retraction N. 6 km/dec W. 17 km/dec N. 0 km/dec W. 9 km/dec N W N. 44 km/dec W. 8 km/dec N. 41 km/dec W. 15 km/dec 10/6/2017 Bruge et al Frontiers in Marine Science

10 ALBACORE TUNA (TROPHIC MIGRATION) April-June Poleward shift October-Dicember Fishing Gear Early migration Trolling Live bait Dufour et al 2010 (Santiago, 2004) 10/6/2017

11 C L I R E M A R Climatic scenarios for vulnerable marine resources in Spain Escenarios climáticos de los recursos marinos vulnerables de España 11

12 C L I R EM A R Climatic scenarios for vulnerable marine resources in Spain Escenarios climáticos de los recursos marinos vulnerables de España Projections under climate change scenarios for: Aida et al European eel larvae Anchovy spawning Bigeye tuna T. obesus Atlantic bluefin tuna T. thynnus 12

13 Spatial Distribution Model (SDM) of the latest leptocephalus European eel larvae stage Current biogeographic distribution Late ( mm) Mid ( mm) Early ( mm) Díaz et al. Submitted

14 * * Díaz et al. 14 Submitted

15 European Anchovy: spawning and eggs Gonadosomatic index Costoya et al Time series analysis of spawning activity 2. Projections of egg density Spawning peak a) Erauskin et al. Submitted

16 European Anchovy: egg density projections(rcp8.5) FishBase Egg density increase: x Area Expansion: 8-16% 16 Erauskin et al. Submitted

17 Projections of the Bigeye tuna CPUE Erauskin et al. in preparation 17

18 Trophic amplification Zooplankton biomass change Change in upper trophic level -1 Response to Climate Change Top-Down control (increasing grazing pressure) Bottom-up control 1 Bottom-up control Top-Down control (release of grazing pressure) 1 Ocean warming Change in lower trophic level Phytoplankton biomass change Amplification (fractional change in biomass of HTL > FCB LTL) Attenuation (FCB HTL < FCB LTL) Proportional response (FCB HTL = FCB LTL) Chust et al Global Change Biology 20:

19 Trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean NEMO-PISCES Global Model, A1B scenario, difference between 2100 and present day -ive amplification in the tropical oceans +ive amplification in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans Trophic attenuation in temperate seas Chust et al. Global Change Biology (2014)

20 Primary Production change by 2050 Potential Catch Change in 2050 (EEZ) Spain: -16% Barange et al NCC 20

21 Fishing fleet capacity Total tonnage (thousand GT) Catches by fishing area (1 000 tonnes live weight) Spain Eurostat

22 a concludingremark AlthoughtheSpanishfishingfleetisoneofthe most important in Europe, there is no published study on how climate change is expected to impact the total fish catch potential of overall Spanish fleets 22

23 Thank you for your attention! Acknowledgements FP7 MEECE: Marine Ecosystem Evolution in a Changing Environment(Contract No ) FP7 EURO-BASIN: European Union Basin-scale Analysis, Synthesis and Integration(Contract No ). Basque Governement(project CLIPES) Fundacion Biodiversidad(Project CLIREMAR) 23