18th European Conference on Power Electronics and Applications, Karlsruhe, Jochen Kreusel Energy challenges

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1 18th European Conference on Power Electronics and Applications, Karlsruhe, Jochen Kreusel Energy challenges EPE2016_JKreusel_ pptx PG-TM

2 Future power systems The environment EPE2016_JKreusel_ pptx PG-TM

3 Global energy challenges Social, economic and environmental drivers Coping with growing energy demand due to Increasing global population Growing economy in particular in emerging countries Demand for digitalization, electrification and transportation Curbing environmental impact of fossil fuels such as Climate change globally Pollution locally Securing energy access by Guaranteeing reliability of supply Reducing dependence on imported fuel Enabling affordable access to electricity in developing rural areas Significant infrastructure investments are needed to provide sustainable access to electricity EPE2016_JKreusel_ pptx PG-TM

4 Electricity demand to rise by around 80% through 2040 Significant increase from developing markets Year 2040: TWh Global projected increase in electricity demand ( TWh) 34 % 14 % 13 % 13 % M. East and Africa Europe and N. America 9 % South East Asia 6 % Latin America 11 % China India Rest of the world Year 2012: TWh Latin America 61% 100% Europe and North America (OECD) 3% 26% M. East and Africa 74% 152% India China 44% 119% 123% 235% IEA New policies scenario Growth in primary energy demand Growth in electricity demand South East Asia 123% 196% Source: International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook EPE2016_JKreusel_ pptx PG-TM

5 Renewable energy Changing power balance Generation capacity additions (GW/yr) % 38% Global trends 50 Wind: 62 GW 22% 0 Solar PV: 53 GW Gross capacity additions (GW/yr) Renewables (RES) capacity additions (GW/yr) Variable RES capacity additions (GW/yr) Distributed* RES capacity additions (GW/yr) 85% 66% 44% Power balance tipping irreversibly towards renewables, driven by policy & disruptive technology cost reduction Main growth is foreseen in variable renewables such as wind and solar Two growth paths: centralized and distributed* renewables Some industrialized regions incline towards the distributed renewables path Fast-developing regions mainly follow the centralized renewables path * Distributed RES: < 50 MW per unit, connected to medium and low voltage grids EPE2016_JKreusel_ pptx PG-TM

6 Changes in the world of electricity Examples of regional drivers North America Europe Asia Middle East & Africa Latin America Ageing electrical infrastructure, grown over a long period of time Shift in fuel mix (coal to gas) Strong push towards renewable energy supported by legislation New Clean Power Plan Focus on asset optimization and services General trend towards urbanization Single European market for electricity Renewable policies pioneers High share of green field installations Megacities Rural electrification Economic development Strong growth in some countries Increasing interest in renewable energy Will to diversify generation mix in a sustainable way to: lower fossil fuel dependence Broad digitalization lower hydro dependence EPE2016_JKreusel_ pptx PG-TM

7 Future power systems Wind and solar power as main pillars EPE2016_JKreusel_ pptx PG-TM

8 Characteristics of renewable energy sources Wind and Solar PV: What is different? Bioenergy Geo-thermal Reservoir Hydro Run of river CSP* Solar PV onshore Wind offshore Variability time scale Dispatchability seasons to generations days to years hours to years minutes to years dispatchable partial low partial Predictability high accuracy Moderate low * With thermal storage, source: IPCC 2011 Balancing electricity supply and demand at any time is becoming more challenging given the volatility and uncertainty of wind and solar energy sources EPE2016_JKreusel_ pptx PG-TM

9 Properties of renewable generation Fundamentally new challenges for power systems Variable and uncertain generation Maximum output varies depending on wind and sunlight No perfect forecast for wind and sunlight available Inertial response capability Non-synchronous generation technologies connect to grid via power electronics and have little or no inertial response capability Location constrained Areas with the best resources are often situated in remote locations. Tapping into these resources will require efficient ways to transport a large amount of power over long distances Modularity Renewable power generation can be found as residential or commercial size. Increasing levels of distribution level generation will require new approaches to regulate and manage this energy EPE2016_JKreusel_ pptx PG-TM

10 The challenge of dealing with fundamental change Experts opinions from the past 20 years Expectation Renewables are distributed and require less grids. Renewables require storage and flexible gas power plants. Renewables will result in skyhigh cost for control power. Renewables will threaten system stability. Small photovoltaic installations are not relevant for the system. Reality Increased need of grid capacity on all levels No business case for pumped hydro storage any more, gas power plants shutting down* All-time low of cost for control power* Increase of reliability of supply over the past five years* German 50,2 Hz problem * Germany Many forecasts have turned out to be fundamentally wrong and have caused significant cost in several cases! EPE2016_JKreusel_ pptx PG-TM

11 How could the first 30%* of renewables be integrated? Permanent innovation all over the system * Germany 2015: 32,5 % Smart Grid Control Center DRMS SCADA EMS Focal Point voltage control on distribution level digital substation Nostradamus weather network management Opening control power markets for smaller players Acceptance of pools and dispatchable renewables Intraday trading of wind power, corrections until 45 min. before exec. market design virtual power plants EPE2016_JKreusel_ pptx PG-TM

12 The energy challenge a unique situation Learnings from the way we have gone already Technical Power electronics will become the backbone of the system Digitization will be a key enabler Methodical Do not extrapolate the past in incremental steps, instead try to imagine how the world will look like at the end! Do not exclude anything! Impossible does not exist! Consider innovation outside your area of expertise and experience! Focus on real problems and use the results in daily business! EPE2016_JKreusel_ pptx PG-TM

13 At the end An expert s view on the challenge We cannot predict the future completely, but we can lay out our organizations, the ways how we are thinking, our systems more suitable for evolution. Matthias Horx, Futurist EPE2016_JKreusel_ pptx PG-TM

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