CAMS greenhouse gas fluxes

Transcription

1 CAMS greenhuse gas fluxes Frédéric Chevallier, Sander Huweling, Arj Segers, Rna Thmpsn

2 Atmspheric meas. f lng- lived GHGs Cncentratin measurements at Amsterdam Island, F. Surce: LSCE/RAMCES CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O are the three main nes, with majr cntributins t climate change. Decadal trends + shrter tempral variatins + spatial variatins. What are the drivers f the underlying surces and sinks f these gases? Such infrmatin can be prvided by mdels (e.g., CAMS-41) and inventries (fires in CAMS-44, anthrpgenic and natural emissins in CAMS-81). It als lies in the space-time gradients f the cncentratins and can be extracted by atmspheric inversin systems (CAMS-73).

3 Tw variatinal inversin systems fr CAMS Direct heritage f GEMS/MACC with inspiratin frm ECMWF s 4D-Var. CO 2 (CEA) and N 2 O (NILU + CEA): PYVAR system, Includes ECMWF s cngrad and INRIA s M1QN3, Includes LMDZ transprt mdel (mass fluxes cmputed frm a full General Circulatin Mdel guided by ECMWF winds), Glbal layers. CH 4 (TNO + SRON): TM5-4DVAR system, Includes ECMWF s cngrad and INRIA s M1QN3, Includes TM5 transprt mdel (mass fluxes diagnsed frm the ECMWF re-analysis), Glbal layers and layers.

4 Current CAMS inversin shp- windw Assciated dcumentatin: 1 ATBD and 1 PVIR fr each prduct stream. + a series f service evlutin studies. In 2016, they were: (CO 2 ) Use f OCO-2 data. (CO 2 ) Evaluatin f cuntry-scale numbers. (N 2 O) Changes t the errr cvariance calculatins. (CH 4 ) Changes t TM5. (CH 4 ) Changes t the satellite bias crrectin.

5 A lng recrd fr the CO 2 v10r1: released in August v10r2: released in Feb v11r1: released in September Physical parallelizatin v11r2: released in May 2013 v12r1: released in Octber v12r2: released in January 2014 LMDZ4 with 39 layers v13r1: released in July Distributed thrugh ECMWF server v14r1: released in May LMDZ5A v14r2: released in Sep v15r2: released in May v15r4: released in Nv v16r1: planned fr June 2017 prduct Transitin t a new supercmputer. Less cres per scket, less memry per cre, faster cres. Current prductin uses 266 slave cres, plus 2 masters. Use annually-varying prir cean fluxes. New bservatin interface with NOAA data. Replaced 1 crrupted mnthly mass flux file.

6 Fit t un- assimilated data CAMS XCO 2 and OCO-2 XCO 2 nadir-mde retrievals vs. TCCON, year 2015 OCO-2 retrievals were prduced by the OCO-2 prject at the Jet Prpulsin Labratry, Califrnia Institute f Technlgy, and btained frm the ACOS/OCO-2 data archive maintained at the NASA Gddard Earth Science Data and Infrmatin Services Center. TCCON data were btained frm the TCCON Data Archive, hsted by the Carbn Dixide Infrmatin Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge Natinal Labratry, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, U.S.A.,

7 CO 2 fluxes at natinal scale Data publicly available at grid pint scale: are they meaningful when aggregated at natinal scale? Case f France: : v15r2 = 70 ± 117 MtCO 2 /yr Natinal frestry inventry = 118 MtCO 2 /yr Interannual variability linked t large-scale climate patterns ver the Atlantic (Basts et al., 2016). But edge effect is visible in v15r2 (stps in Dec 2015) vs. v15r4 (stps in June 2016). v15r2 v15r4 Ttal natural flux (CAMS) ± 1σ Land use, land use change and frestry (UNFCCC) Fssil fuel (UNFCCC)

8 CH 4 prductin chain Simulating CH 4 requires prper emissins and initial cncentratins Tw-step chain: "A" : sequential series f inversins t btain initial cnc. (1-year windws, reslutin 6 4, 25 layers) "B" : parallel inversins n target reslutin (3-year windws, reslutin 3 2, 34 layers) Based n MACC inversin system by P. Bergamaschi (JRC): 4D-var methd Estimate emissins in 4 categries, wetlands, rice, bimass burning, ther (anthrp.) TM5 transprt mdel ERA-Interim mete 6-mnth spin-up/dwn "Stream 1" using NOAA surface bservatins nly "Stream 2" using NOAA surface bservatins and GOSAT XCH 4 clumns ( )

9 Latest CH 4 release v11r1 : re-analysis using NOAA surf. bs. Higher wetland and rice emissins than prir in NH summer/autumn Lwer ther (anthrpg.) emissins than prir in summer, especially in East Asia Cmparisn t aircraft data in the free trpsphere: b < 5 ppb, σ ~ 15 ppb Cmparisn t TCCON: persistent nrth-suth bias Bias (bs - psterir) wetlands rice v12r1 : re-analysis using NOAA surf. bs. and GOSAT XCH 4 Being re-run with better cnfiguratin and retrieval biascrrectin bimass burning "ther" (anthrp.)

10 Service evlutin fr CH 4 Imprvement f the cnsistency between tracer transprt as simulated in IFS and TM5 => Phase 1: Diagnsing differences Imprvement f the treatment f GOSAT biases => Phase 1: Transprt mdel induced biases & cmparisn t TCCON / AirCre Imprvement f the cmputatinal efficiency f multi-year inversins => Phase 1: Chevallier et al, GMD, 2013 apprach applied t CH 4 Preparatin f TM5-4DVAR fr the use f Sentinel-5P XCH 4 retrievals t=1 year IFS TM5 TM5 - IFS Next steps in the IFS/TM5 cmparisn: Use ERA-Interim diffusive mass fluxes in TM5 Diffusin threshlds in the TM5 stratsphere Different mass fixer ptins in IFS

11 Main research questins fr N 2 O Where are the majr surce regins and htspts? Hw are N 2 O emissins varying in time? Are anthrpgenic emissins increasing r decreasing? What drives year-t-year variatins in emissins? Hw imprtant is stratsphere-trpsphere transprt fr variatin in trpspheric N 2 O? 127 sites used in the CAMS N 2 O inversin t address them. They have a large impact n the psterir estimate

12 East- Asian N 2 O emissin trends Increasing N 2 O emissins wing t mre N- fertilizer use and lwer Nitrgen Use Efficiency (NUE)

13 Eurpean N 2 O emissin trends Decreasing N 2 O emissins since 2003 wing t less N-fertilizer and higher Nitrgen Use Efficiency (NUE)

14 Clsing remarks Visibility f the CAMS inversins culd be further increased. Develp web interface when Climate data stre is ready. The Glbal Carbn Prject is ur current VIP user. CAMS CO 2 v15r2 last year. MACC-II CH 4 last year (lead CEA). CAMS N 2 O v15r1 this year (planned, lead NILU). Analysis f very recent trends. CAMS CO 2 v15r3 (intermediate versin). Market segment t be develped? Fster interactin with new satellite prjects and with future H2020 prjects that include GHG atmspheric inversins. Expand the service twards ther species?

15 Acknwledgements CAMS-73 is very grateful t the many peple invlved in the surface and aircraft CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O measurements and in the archiving f these data that are kindly made available t them by varius means.