CO 2 equivalent with Advanced High-Strength Steels

Transcription

1 CO 2 equivalent with Advanced High-Strength Steels Dr. Roland Geyer The Donald Bren School of Environmental Science and Management University of California at Santa Barbara

2 Outline Outline Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Designing s for GHG Emission Reductions The Impact of Materials on Life Cycle Emissions Summary

3 Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change

4 The Greenhouse Effect

5 Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration 370 ppm 280 ppm

6 The Main Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) Substance Global Warming Potential Atmospheric Lifetime (GWP 100 in kg CO 2 eq) (years) Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Methane (CH 4 ) Nitrous Oxide (N 2 O) CFC-12 (CCl 2 F 2 ) 6,200-7, HCFC-22 (CHClF 2 ) 1,300-1, Perfluoromethane (CF 4 ) 6,500 50,000 Perfluoroethane (C 2 F 6 ) 9,200 10,000 Sulphur Hexafluoride (SF 6 ) 23,900 3,200 Source: IPPC Radiative Forcing Report, 1996

7 U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions US Greenhouse Gas Emission by Sector (in million metric tons) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Electric Power Industry Transportation Industry Agriculture Commercial Residential Source: US Emission Inventory 2005, EPA

8 Designing s for GHG Emission Reductions

9 Climate Change and Design Kyoto Protocol Objective: Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere 1997: Kyoto Protocol is negotiated in Japan February 16, 2005: Kyoto Protocol comes into force As of January 2006: 160 nations have ratified the agreement European Union Goal: Average of 120 g CO 2 eq per km driven for passenger cars by /2000: Negotiated self-commitments of vehicle manufacturers California - Assembly Bill 1493 Goal: Average of 205 g CO 2 eq per mile driven for passenger cars by : AB 1493 passes Assembly and Senate 2004: AB 1493 is approved by Governor New York State June 2005: Official proposal to adopt California s regulation

10 Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) Greenhouse Gases Materials Production Manufacturing Use Disposal Product Life Cycle

11 Life Cycle Emissions of s (ICEV) Typical Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of a ICE Passenger Car 10.3 % 4.3 % 85.3 % 0.1 % Materials production manufacturing use (incl. upstream fuel) disposal 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: Development Bank of Japan, 2004

12 Life Cycle Emissions of s (HEV) Typical Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of a Hybrid Passenger Car 14.7 % 5.7 % 79.5 % 0.1 % Materials production manufacturing use (incl. upstream fuel) disposal 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: Own calculations

13 The Impact of Material Choice on Life Cycle GHG Emissions

14 Impact of Material Choice on Life Cycle Emissions Greenhouse Gases Materials Production Manufacturing Use Disposal Material Choice

15 Impact of Material Choice on Materials Production Material Current Average GHG Emissions (in kg CO 2 eq / kg of material) Primary Production Secondary Production Steel AHSS Aluminum Materials Production Manufacturing Use Disposal Source: IISI, IAI Material Choice

16 Impact of Material Choice on Manufacturing Material All Estimates for Material in Body-in-White Applications Recycled Content Weight Savings Potential Steel 11 % 15 % AHSS 11 % 15 % ~ 25 % Aluminum 0 % 11 % ~ 40 % Materials Production Manufacturing Use Disposal Material Choice

17 Parameter Impact of Material Choice on Use Value Range Fuel Savings per Weight Savings *) (in l/100km per 100kg saved) (in % fuel savings per 10 % weight savings) Total vehicle mileage (used in previous studies) 100, ,543 km 62, ,195 miles Materials Production Manufacturing Use Disposal *) Source: fka Material Choice

18 Impact of Material Choice on Disposal Material Recycling rate Scrap mainly used for Market Size Steel % Long Products and Growing AHSS % Engineering Steels Growing Aluminum % Castings Limited Materials Production Manufacturing Use Disposal Material Choice

19 Summary

20 Summary Automotive Advanced High-Strength Steel from a Greenhouse Gas Perspective Low GHG emissions are an important criterion for vehicle design. A life cycle perspective is required to assess the net impact of design changes on total GHG emissions. The change from steel to AHSS in BIW applications is a no-regret decision since there are no significant trade-offs. The change from steel to aluminum in BIW applications involves significant emission trade-offs. Emission trade-offs from material choice need to be carefully quantified. Some issues still have large uncertainties. Be cautious about hasty claims.