HOW TO OBTAIN ABUNDANT CLEAN ENERGY

Transcription

1 HOW TO OBTAIN ABUNDANT CLEAN ENERGY

2 HOW TO OBTAIN ABUNDANT CLEAN ENERGY Linda Baine McGown California State University Long Beach, California AND John O/M. Bockris Texas A & M College Station, Texas PLENUM PRESS. NEW YORK AND LONDON

3 Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data McGown, Linda Baine. How to obtain abundant clean energy. Includes index. 1. Power resources. I. Bockris, John O'M., joint author. II. Title. TJI63.2.M lsbn-13: e-lsbn-13: DOl: / Plenum Press, New Yark Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1980 A Division of Plenum Publishing Corporation 227 West 17th Street, New York, N.Y All rights reserved No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording, or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher

4 Preface The Three Mile Island accident, the periodic occurrence of long gas lines until sufficient price increases are achieved, our dependence on foreign powers for a large fraction of our energy supply, and continual controversy in our government and concerned public groups all point to the real presence of an energy crisis. Even the government has finally publicly acknowledged the fact that our present fuel sources will run out soon enough to be of concern to us now. This knowledge should raise many questions in the minds of our citizens. When will our sources run out, or at least become too expensive to afford? What could replace them, and which alternatives are best? When we hear about these matters in the news media, we get many contradictory opinions, mainly concerning coal and nuclear energy. Most of us realize that the reintroduction of coal on a massive scale would give rise to considerable pollution difficulties. Many people are also waking to an awareness of the dangers of nuclear reactors. When we turn to scientists for answers, we find that each one seems to advise us that a single path to new energy sources is the best-of course, each scientist tends to advise his own path. In this book, we have attempted to objectively describe the advantages, disadvantages, and possible dangers of each energy alternative. It is likely that there will be a multi path development of energy resources in the future. Each of the considered sources has some part to play, and for the next hundred years we shall exist upon a mixture, increasingly made up of renewable energy resources, i.e., those which will not run out. We stress in our book not only the technological aspects, but also considerations of time and money. These latter factors must be dealt with here because technological feasibility becomes a realistic possibility only if the idea can be transformed into an affordable commodity in time to replace our exhausting fuels. There is a corollary to the consideration of time and money: politics. We have broken through the traditional nonpolitical stance of most scientists in our decision to discuss this aspect, too, and to shine some light upon the inertial weight of the vast investments of the oil companies and those of the rich and hence powerful OPEC nations in the old energy technology. One of us (JOMB) would like to express thanks to his wife, Lily v

5 vi Preface Bockris, for discussions and collaboration in the early stages of writing this book. California State University, Long Beach, California Texas A&M University College Station, Texas linda Baine McGown John O'M. Bockris

6 Contents PART I. THE APPROACHING ENERGY DISASTER Chapter 1. What Is Energy? Energy Is That Which Makes Things Go... 3 Classification of Energy Potential Energy T uming Potential Energy to Useful Energy Kinetic Energy... 6 Potential Energy in Fuels How the Energy Got Inside the Fossil Fuels... 9 A Nasty Realization The Conversion of the Various Fonns of Energy to Fonns Which Can Be Used by People The VitalImportance of Having a Good Transducer{Converter} Efficiency of Energy Conversion The Predominance of Cost The Importance of Compromise The Importance of the Time Left Chapter 2. What Part Does Energy Play in Our Lives? Introduction Energy Detennines the Kind of Lives We Lead The Standard of Living Income, The Standard of Living, and Energy Per Person Energy, Comfort, and Efficiency The Divisions of Energy Use Household Energy Transportation Energy Industrial and Commercial Energy One (Avoidable) Negative Aspect ofa High-Energy Life: Pollution Another Negative Aspect of the Present Energy System: The Coming Exhaustion of Our Present Sources Chapter 3. How Do We Get Our Energy Right Now? Introduction A Summary of Our Present Energy Sources Making Electricity Fossil Fuels How We Get Our Energy in Industry.. _ Problems of the Near Energy Future How Energy Is Transported Now Our Finite Energy Sources vii

7 viii Contents Chapter 4. Shall We Run Out of Energy in Our Time?... ',' Present Fuels Are Limited How Do We Estimate the Fossil Fuels Left? The French Farmer Resources Exhaust Suddenly The Date of the Maximum Production Rate-The Effective End When Will The Maximum Production Rate Be Reached? The Effect on the Exhaustion Date of Rising Living Standards and Population Growth How the Rate of Production of a Resource Will Vary with Time The Critical Year of the Maximum The Effect of Change in Price of a Resource on Its Use Rate How an Estimate of1500 Years of Coal Can Be Revised to Less than 30 Years When Shall We Run Out of Oil and Natural Gas? Running Out of Coal, Too More Pollution? What Would Happen If We Stopped the Growth of Our Economies? Is Conservation the Answer? Shall We Run Out of Fossil Fuels in OurTime Chapter 5. How Long Does It Take to Develop and Build Up a New Technology?... Introduction Stages in Developing a New Technology.... The First Stage-Dreams The Second Stage-Fundamental Research.... The Third Stage-Developmental Research.... The Fourth Stage-Commercialization.... The Cost of the Various Stages of Developing Technology.... Historical Guidelines Tell Us How Long Technologies Take to Develop.... It is Likely to Take Years (1-2 Generations) to Develop New Energy Sources.. Monetary Aspects of Building a New System ANearThing? PART II. ALTERNATIVES: WHAT COULD REPLACE OUR EXHAUSTING FUELS? Chapter 6. The Dream of Cheap, Clean Atomic Energy.. The Beginning of the Dream.... The Dream Continues.... A Quantitative Comparison The Dream Fades?.... Types of Atomic Reactors.... The Fission Reactor.... Uranium -The Active and the Stable Forms.... How Fission Reactors Work.... The Difficulty with Nonbreeder Fission Reactors: Exhaustion Will the Breeder Reactor Save the Situation?.... The Drawbacks of Breeder Reactors

8 Contents ix Chapter 7. Fission Reactors-What Can Go Wrong Introduction Fission Reactor Accidents-A Few dose Calls What Can Go Wrong1... : The Brown Ferry Mishap-Human Error in Action Three Mile Island-"But No One Was I<i1led" Biological Hazards of Nuclear Radiation - "Where Does It Hurt1" What Increases in Background Radiation Are Expected if We Switch to Atomic Power Cancer-Causing Cell Damage by Radioactive Substances The Dose Rate Affects the Extent of Biological Damage Dumping Radioactive Garbage in Whose Backyard Chapter 8. Dreaming About the Future: Abundant Clean Energy from Atomic Fusion Fusion Fusion: Another Atomic Alternative The Advantages of Fusion as an Energy Source The Diluteness of Deuterium Is the Fusion Concept Utopian Atomic Fission and Atomic Fusion But Shall We Actually Be Able to Attain the Fusion Process Difficulties in Realizing a Controlled Atomic Fusion Process Plasmas The Difficulty of Containing a Plasma in a Bottle Is That It Escapes Another Possible Method of Getting Energy from Fusion What Has Been the Progress of the Laser Method for Fusion Time Is Fusion the Best Energy-Producing Prospect of Them All Fusion Compared with Other Abundant Clean Energy Sources Chapter 9. The Most Available Energy Source: The Sun Energy from the Sun The Sun's Expected Life How Much of the Solar Energy Radiated from the Sun Reaches the Earth Solar Energy Reaching the Earth Solar Energy per Person How Much Energy Does the Average Person Consume Trying to Allow for the Future: How Much Energy Will Be Needed by the Years 2000 and Solar Energy is Dilute How Much of the Earth's Surface Can Be Used for Solar Collectors? What Will Be the Efficiency of Collection of Solar Energy? Will the Amount of Solar Energy Which We Could Collect Be Enough to SupplyOurTotalEnergyNeeds? Shall We Need More Energy than We Have Calculated Above in the Further Future? To What Medium Shall We Convert Solar Energy for Use? How Will We Get Solar Energy from the Places Where It Is Easily Available to Where It Is Needed?

9 x Contents How Much Time Will Be Needed to Make the Solar Collectors? If Solar Energy Is Readily Available, Why Wasn't Its Collection DevelopedManyYearsAgo? The Strange Situation of Countries with Solar Energy That Do Not Collect the Solar Energy Chapter 10. Converting Solar Energy to Useful Fuel Introduction The Solar Spectrum The Photovoltaic Method of Converting the Sun's Energy to Usable Energy on Earth Is the Photovoltaic Method of Collecting Solar Energy Too Expensive? Thin Film Photovoltaics Photovoltaic Collectors in Orbit..... The Mirror Concentrator Method Ocean Thermal Energy Collectors (OTEC).... To What Extent Have the Methods Described in this Chapter Actually Been Built and Used? Chapter 11. Household Energy from the Sun. Introduction.... The Production of Hot Water.... Space Heating of Houses " 143 Space Cooling Household Electricity.... What Do We Do When the Sun Goes Down? Will Solar Energy for Households Be Commercially Available Before Oil Runs Out? Chapter 12. Transport and Industry Run On Electricity and Hydrogen Introduction Running Cars in the Post-Fossil-Fuel World Could We Run Cars on Batteries, Charged by Electicity? Cars Run on Batteries Which Work with Lead Electrodes The Sodium-Sulfur Battery A Source of Energy to Charge Batteries for Electric Cars Hydrogen-Driven Cars Hydrogen-Driven Planes Fuel Cells: How to Get Back Electricity from Hydrogen Derived from the Energy of Solar Radiation The Poor Efficiency of Ordinary Engines The Better Efficiency of Electrochemical Engines Running Industry on Hydrogen Foods from Hydrogen Metallurgy Chapter 13. Tides, Geothermal Heat, and the Big Winds.... The Big Winds: How They Could Be Used to Give Hydrogen Fuel and Electrical Energy for Cities.... Could Wind Be a Reliable Source of Energy on a Large Scale?.... Could Wind Generators Produce Household Electricity?

10 Contents More Wind Energy Estimates The Big Winds Winds at Sea Are Stronger How Would Wind Energy Be Stored on a Massive Scale Would Massive Wind Power Be a Practical Proposition It Is Always the Costthat Counts Energy from the Tides Energy Beneath Our Feet How Hot Rock Geothermal Energy Might Become Practical..., Difficulties in the Attainment of Hot Rock Geothermal Energy Low-Crade Geothermal Energy Summary of the Prospects of Geothermal Energy Chapter 14. Energy Storage and Transmission Energy Carriers: A Choice Among Three Sources and Media What Are the Possible Media (Carriers of Energy) Pros and Cons of the Various Media Transmitting Energy Over Long Distances Why Long Distance Electric Transmission Is Not Acceptable Hydrogen Could Help Reduce the Cost of Sending Energy Over Long Distances Very Long-Distance Transmission of Energy PART III. THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY Chapter 15. Methods of Mass-Producing Hydrogen Introduction The Cyclical Chemical Method for Producing Hydrogen Disadvantages ofthe Cyclical Thermal Method The Electrochemical Method of Obtaining Hydrogen Getting the Energy Back from Gaseous Hydrogen atthe User Terminal What of Homes and the Electricity We Now Use in Them The Advantages of Using Fuel Cells Chapter 16. The Storage of Abundant Clean Energy Introduction Methods of Storing Energy Storage of Energy in the Form of Heat Storing Energy in Its Electrical Form The Pros and Cons of Heat and Electrochemical Storage Storing Gaseous Energy Underground What Methods Will Be Most Used in Our Time for Energy Storage Chapter 17. Beyond the Hydrogen Economy: Some Futuristic Ideas Concepts for the Next Few Hundred Years... Concepts of the Next Few Thousand Years

11 xii Contents PART IV. EXTRASCIENTIFIC CONSIDERATIONS Chapter 18. The Politics of Survival Introduction The Direction of Major Research Funding Depends upon Politicians What Does Survival Mean? The Idea of Vested Capital The Tobacconist The Politician's Dilemma Economies Cannot Expand Forever-When Will Growth Stop? Energy Disaster? -People, Politics, Government Funds, and Research Chapter 19. Answers.... Glossary Index

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