School of Electrical. Engineering Systems. Global Energy Supply

Transcription

1 Global Energy Supply

2 World Perspective - TPES Wednesday, October 15,

3 World Perspective - TPES Wednesday, October 15,

4 World Perspective - TPES Key Observations: From 1973 to 2006, Total Primary Energy Consumption grew by 92% (this growth measured 86% in 2005) Oil remains the most important fuel source (transport) but its share has decreased. The reduction in oil's share has primarily been taken up by Nuclear and Gas The percentage of Primary Energy coming from renewable resources is virtually unchanged. Wednesday, October 15,

5 World Perspective - TFC Wednesday, October 15,

6 World Perspective - TFC Wednesday, October 15,

7 World Perspective - TFC Key Observations: Increasing importance of Electricity Slight reduction in proportion of coal and oil but coal and oil is used in electricity generation and is therefore hidden in this context. In 1973 Total Final Consumption was 77% of Total Primary Energy. In 2006 Total Final Consumption was only 69% of Primary Energy. Why??? Wednesday, October 15,

8 World Perspective - TFC Wednesday, October 15,

9 World Perspective - TFC Wednesday, October 15,

10 World Perspective - TFC Remarks: Consumption is growing but developing nations including China/Asia are growing at the fastest rate. Wednesday, October 15,

11 Electricity - Hydro (& pumped storage) - Renewable resources - Wave - Wind Mechanical Imput Production of mechanical power in turbines Turbines revolve to develop electrical energy Conversion of raw fuel - Oil - Coal - Gas - Nuclear - Solar HEAT Keith Sutherland 2008 Wednesday, October 15,

12 Electricity Wednesday, October 15,

13 World Perspective - Electricity Wednesday, October 15,

14 Electricity Electricity is the lifeblood of modern society Electricity Generation has increased by almost 200% Developing Economies, particularly China, account for much of this growth. Wednesday, October 15,

15 Dependencies - Oil Wednesday, October 15,

16 Dependencies - Oil Oil remains the most important source of primary energy Although oil production has grown, the regional split remains similar but the Middle East is less dominant. In 1973, OAPEC (embargo) and OPEC (Price Setting) initiated the first global oil crisis. Peak Oil theory attempts to predict the point of maximum oil production Current thinking suggests that peak oil is now! Wednesday, October 15,

17 Dependencies - Oil World oil production (EIA Monthly) for crude oil + NGL. The median forecast is calculated from 14 models that are predicting a peak before 2020 (Bakhtiari, Smith, Staniford, Loglets, Shock model, GBM, ASPO-[70,58,45], Robelius Low/High, HSM). 95% of the predictions sees a production peak between 2008 and 2010 at mbpd (The 95% forecast variability area in yellow is computed using a bootstrap technique) Wednesday, October 15,

18 Dependencies - Gas Wednesday, October 15,

19 Dependencies - Gas Importance of former USSR 40% of Irelands Energy comes from gas. Where does that gas come from? What indications would signal the time of peak oil? Wednesday, October 15,

20 Outlook Wednesday, October 15,

21 Outlook Wednesday, October 15,

22 Outlook Wednesday, October 15,

23 Outlook Wednesday, October 15,

24 Outlook Comments on IEA Energy Outlook: Reference Scenario represents a 51% increase on today's TPES Alternative Policy (Best Case??) Scenario still represents a 34% increase Pretty conservative estimate relative positions of oil and other fuels are unchanged. Wednesday, October 15,