Ecosystem Services Supply and Demand Analysis Process

Transcription

1 Ecosystem Services Supply and Demand Analysis Process Making Environments Work for People! KwaZulu-Natal PO Box 2221 Everton 3625 Unit 2 7 Park Lane Kloof Tel: Fax: Western Cape PO Box 2984 Knysna Highlands Estate Hunters Estate Drive Knysna Tel: Fax:

2 What is the Eco-Futures Process? ECO-FUTURES is interactive systems modelling process that identifies and maps the services supplied by natural and built environments in a specified landscape and quantifies how these services may change for specific user groups under different land use or management scenarios. The process uses ecosystem services as the common currency or language between civil society, planners, engineers, ecologists and government. Ecosystem services are the products of nature (containing functional ecosystems) that society has come to expect and enjoy. Some of these services are traded, such as water, but many are not traded such as flood reduction or waste water purification, and consequently have often been forgotten in decision making. What is it Used For? is ideal for evaluating biophysical environment and development issues, and can be used for either detailed analysis or strategic assessments. It can operate with minimal data or with high levels of data. The process is highly adaptable to meet the needs of different ecosystems and developments. The process is highly integrating, using expert knowledge and wisdom, as well as stakeholder perceptions where relevant, to develop consensus around the supply, demand and levels of dependence on natural and built environment services in various current and future scenarios. The process can be used for a wide range of applications, such as: Development scenarios analysis Site selection Ecosystem Services Reporting (e.g. IFC Performance Standard 6) Corporate and stakeholder capacity building Corporate sustainability planning Directing corporate communications Environmental Impact Assessments Strategic Environmental Assessments Environmental Risk and Vulnerability Assessments Conflict Resolution around environmental issues Ecosystem Services Mapping Environment and development Cost-benefit Analyses Some illustrative examples are: Identifying the range and levels of ecosystem services supply within a landscape. See figure 1. Showing the trade-offs between different scenarios as service levels change in response to changing natural and built assets. See figure 2. 2

3 Figure 1: The relative supply of ecosystem services for different land cover types per hectare in the Umbilo River Catchment, Durban. 3

4 Figure 2: Changes to ecosystem services supply levels at a proposed mine development, showing relative service levels before, during and after mining. The red line demarcates the status quo and all current services are normalised to 1 to show the degree of change likely in different scenarios. 4

5 The Problems in Environmental Management Environmental management is becoming an increasingly complex aspect of business and governance. More and more stakeholders and their divergent demands are interacting around a diminishing natural asset and its associated ecosystem services, which society has come to expect and enjoy. Furthermore, there is a growing demand to understand cumulative impacts (largely by governments) and ecosystem service reporting (e.g. International Finance Corporation Performance Standard 6). Consequently, systematic analyses of land or resource use impacts and mitigation options are necessary to identify changes to ecosystem services which have the potential to generate risks, liabilities and opportunities, and to identify who could be affected and how. For those affected, we need to be providing meaningful opportunities to engage in the evaluation of acceptable trade-offs. But how does one make meaning of the hundreds of environment and development variables and their interrelationships - within a short space of time, within an affordable budget and usually without a complete data set - that allows people to take informed decisions? And how do we provide a platform for people to communicate and engage positively in developing solutions to emerging environmental problems? Decision Support for Environmental Management Options FutureWorks! has developed the ECO-FUTURES Process - a participatory, scenario s based ecosystem services supply and demand assessment - to generate shared understandings and insights to support decision making around land use and management. The process uses ecosystem services as the common currency for communication between ecologists, engineers, planners, residents and government. uses social learning, GIS and systems modelling - to combine a range of local experiences, expert knowledge and readily available ecological and social GIS data - to share understandings and generate insights, such as: Showing the range of natural assets and their relative functionality, Showing the range of ecosystem services supplied by these assets, Showing the range of services that the built environment supplies, Showing the what range services of natural the landscape assets and is their good, relative moderate functionality, and poor at Showing supplying, the range of ecosystem services supplied by these assets, Showing Predicting the changes range of in services ecosystem that service the built supply environment levels for supplies, a range of Showing scenarios what - such services as changes the landscape in use, is rehabilitation, good, moderate management, and poor at supplying, mitigation and offsets, Predicting Showing spatially changes and in ecosystem numerically service the demand supply for levels the for services a range and of scenarios peoples relative - such dependence as changes in on land the services, use, rehabilitation, and management, mitigation Clearly showing and offsets, the societal trade-offs between different scenarios, Showing that is, what spatially are the and environmental numerically profits the demand losses, for and the for services whom? and 5

6 The Process takes place in a workshop setting for between one to three days depending on need and complexity. The process is as important as the outputs, as a common mental model of the system is developed between the participants, and represented in an MS Excel model. The common understanding developed amongst the stakeholders forms the basis for informed dialogue and on-going interaction. The process integrates the following: Ecosystem services analysis Social learning Systems modelling Scenario analysis Capacity building Expert knowledge, available data, local experiences and wisdom GIS mapping and analysis The workshop can be an in-house process or a public process including a wide range of stakeholders. It can also be an incremental process, where the model undergoes continuous building in a series of workshops with different stakeholders. The process focuses on building a common understanding of the system and develops consensus on a series of scores which reflect ecological conditions, land-cover areas/volumes, services supply potentials, numbers of service users and user dependence on services. The scores are based on available 1 information, local experiences and expert wisdom. The process can be strongly linked to GIS and measured data, or it can be more inclined towards intuitive scoring. By analysing the known situation or status quo, a baseline model is developed, which forms a basis for measuring change in service levels under different scenarios, as various ecological criteria change in response to different land uses or management activities. The process recognises that all participants are experts in some aspect of the social-ecological system, and everyone actively participates in building a joint product. In public processes we have both proponents and opponents cooperating in building a tool to support decision making. The largely oral and visual process encourages all stakeholders to contribute and has been successfully applied in situations of poor literacy. Importantly, the knowledge and experiences of all stakeholders are internalised in the model, generating a high degree of buy-in. The model generates considerable excitement as stakeholders are able to propose specific interventions which are then discussed, scored and inserted into the systems model which then immediately displays the consequences, leading to an iterative process that fine-tunes the interventions to a point where an optimal solution or a least cost trade-off is generated. Importantly, the model is simple and not a black box. Outcomes and associated assumptions can be easily reviewed. is efficient in that the entire process and reporting can be concluded within two to three weeks. The demand on participants time is kept to minimum, also allowing for executive participation. 1 Where there is a lack of data, wisdom is used as an alternative. 6

7 Applications To date, Futureworks has run over 30 ECO-FUTURES Processes, including: Exxaro Impact and rehabilitation assessment for Mooifontein Colliery, South Anglogold Ashanti Environment management options for Siguiri Mine, Guinea Base Titanium Environment management options and corporate reporting for Kwale Mine, Kenya Coal of Environmental offsets design for Vele Colliery, South Gem Diamonds Dam and tailings location options for Letseng Mine, Lesotho Sappi Forests Afforestation feasibility assessment, Improved management and reporting opportunities, South Sappi Enstra Assessment of effluent management options, South Uranium One Cost benefit analysis of Mkuju mining options, Tanzania Tongaat Hulett KZN North Coast development opportunities and constraints, South Anglo Coal Thermal Impact and rehabilitation assessment for Mafube Colliery, South Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife Board capacity building and new strategy development, Mpenjati estuary management plan, Ecosystem services supply and demand analysis of six protected areas, South Ethekwini (Durban) Municipality Strategic Catchment Assessments, Strategic review of contentious developments, South Golder Associates Mine and mill impact management, South SSI Estuary management plans, South WSP Mine environment management, Guinea Ground Truth Mine environment management, Guinea and Lesotho Imani Development Transport impact assessments, South Gibb Impact assessment of Sani Pass improvement options, South /Lesotho Transboundary Consulting Mining environment impact management, South Verde Azul Strategic Environment Assessment in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique GIZ Capacity building for trading ecosystem services in Mpumalanga, South Water Research Commission Identify economic empowerment opportunities supplied by the Keurboom, Nahoon and Mngazana estuaries, South 7