Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment TxDOT Environmental Conference September 14, 2016

Transcription

1 Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment TxDOT Environmental Conference September 14,

2 Presentation Outline I. CEQ Climate NEPA Guidance Climate impacts II. Climate change vulnerability assessments 2

3 CEQ NEPA Climate Change Guidance: Impacts and Adaptation Photo credits: ADOT (left) Hillsborough County MPO (above) 3

4 Relevant Climate Change Effects The impacts of climate change on the proposed project itself Resiliency Effects on the affected environment, particularly resources potentially impacted by the proposal that may also be impacted by climate change Takes into account current and reasonably forseeable future state of the environment with and without the proposal project 4

5 Relevant Climate Change Effects Direct impacts on transportation infrastructure Cumulative impacts of transportation projects on an environment vulnerable to the effects of climate change 5

6 Conceptual Analysis Framework Incorporate existing information about future climate change in the project area Discuss potential impacts of future climate change on the proposed project Incorporate existing information about climate effects on the affected environment (water resources, species, etc.) Discuss combined effects of climate change and the proposed project on the affected environment 6

7 Potential Climate Stressors More frequent and intense heat waves Longer fire seasons and more severe wildfires Changes in precipitation patterns Increased drought Greater sea-level rise More intense coastal storms Harm to water resources, agriculture, wildlife, ecosystems 7

8 Appropriate Sources of Information Use available information when assessing the climate change effects Relevant chapters of the most recent national climate assessment; reports from USGCRP Information from relevant resource agencies Information from regional or state research institutions that focus on climate issues DOT or MPO planning-level climate change vulnerability assessments and adaptation plan 8

9 Impacts of Climate Change on a Proposed Project Consider the design of a proposed project and potential mitigation measures that would increase the resiliency of the proposal to climate change May be have been assessed in a regional impacts and adaptation study Consider FHWA HEC-25 Vol 2 and HEC-17 guidance Level of analysis should reflect the value and potential vulnerability of the infrastructure Consider alternatives to a proposed action that avoid or minimize the effects of climate change on the project, where appropriate 9

10 HEC-25 and HEC-17 Guidance a Hydraulics Engineering Circular 25, Volume 2 Highways in the Coastal Environment: Assessing Extreme Events, October 2014 Hydraulics Engineering Circular 17 Highways in the River Environment - Floodplains, Extreme Events, Risk, and Resilience (Second Edition), June

11 Adaptation Strategies Maintain and manage Absorb increased maintenance and repair costs and improve real-time response to severe events Increase redundancy Consider how the overall system could provide alternatives to the functions served by the at-risk facility Protect Consider design changes when rebuilding or investing in new facilities, including possible buffers to climate-related impacts 11

12 Adaptation Strategies Accommodation Modify or redesign projects to better coexist in a climate-stressed environment Relocation Move existing infrastructure to areas less prone to climate-related stress Avoidance Site new facilities in areas lest vulnerable to the risks associated with climate change 12

13 Climate Effects on Resources For environmental resources impacted by both the proposed action as well as climate change describe both present and future environment. Consider: Will the effects of proposed action on environmental resources be exacerbated by increased climate-change related vulnerability? Are there planning or landscape level studies on affected resources to reference? 13

14 Climate Effects on Resources Analysis can inform decisions regarding modifications to the proposed action that could eliminate or mitigate impacts exacerbated by climate change Consider future environment when considering mitigation strategies for project impacts on environmental resources Note, however, that mitigation funded by FHWA must be related to the actual impacts of the proposed project 14

15 Environmental Justice and Other Vulnerable Communities Consider whether the effects of the proposed action in association with the effects of climate change may result in disproportionate impacts to EJ communities Likewise, consider impacts to communities particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change (children, elderly, impoverished communities) 15

16 Summary: CEQ Climate Change Guidance Impacts and Adaptation The design and mitigation associated with a proposed project should take into account the impacts of climate change on the project When analyzing the impacts of a proposal on environmental resources, consider the effects of climate change on those resources Where appropriate, should consider alternatives to a proposed action that would make the project and/or the affected environment more resilient to climate change 16

17 Vulnerability Assessment Framework 1. Define Project Scope Objectives Relevant Assets Climate Variables 2. Assess Vulnerability Climate Inputs Asset data, criticality, sensitivity Vulnerabilities, risk 3. Integrate Vulnerability Into Decision Making 17

18 Defining Project Scope ARTICULATE OBJECTIVES What actions are motivated by the assessment? Who is the target audience? What products are needed? What level of detail required? 18

19 Defining Project Scope SELECT & CHARACTERIZE RELEVANT ASSETS Asset type Existing vs. planned Data availability Further delineate Critical assets? Owned or managed assets? 19

20 Defining Project Scope IDENTIFY KEY CLIMATE VARIABLES Climate impacts of concern Sensitive assets & thresholds for impacts 20

21 Assessing Vulnerability Assess Vulnerability Develop Climate Inputs Collect and Integrate Data on Assets Assess Asset Criticality Develop Information on Asset Sensitivity to Climate Identify and Rate Vulnerabilities Incorporate Likelihood and Risk 21

22 Assessing Vulnerability Assess Vulnerability Develop Climate Inputs Collect and Integrate Data on Assets Assess Asset Criticality Develop Information on Asset Sensitivity to Climate Identify and Rate Vulnerabilities Incorporate Likelihood and Risk 22

23 Assessing Vulnerability Assess Vulnerability Develop Climate Inputs Collect and Integrate Data on Assets Assess Asset Criticality Develop Information on Asset Sensitivity to Climate Identify and Rate Vulnerabilities Incorporate Likelihood and Risk 23

24 Assessing Vulnerability Assess Vulnerability Develop Climate Inputs Collect and Integrate Data on Assets Assess Asset Criticality Develop Information on Asset Sensitivity to Climate Identify and Rate Vulnerabilities Incorporate Likelihood and Risk 24

25 Integrate Results into Decision Making Identify, analyze, and prioritize adaptation options; Incorporate assessment results into programs and processes INCORPORATE INTO ASSET MANAGEMENT INTEGRATE INTO EMERGENCY & RISK MANAGEMENT CONTRIBUTE TO LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN ASSIST IN PROJECT PRIORITIZATION IDENTIFY OPPORTUNITIES FOR IMPROVING DATA COLLECTION, OPERATIONS OR DESIGNS BUILD PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR ADAPTATION INVESTMENT EDUCATE & ENGAGE STAFF & DECISION MAKERS 25

26 FHWA S CLIMATE CHANGE & EXTREME WEATHER VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK (2012) Define Project Scope Objectives Relevant Assets Climate Variables Assess Vulnerability Climate Inputs Asset data, criticality, sensitivity Vulnerabilities, risk Integrate Vulnerability Into Decision Making 26

27 PILOT STUDY AREAS WSDOT Oregon DOT WSDOT NYSDOT Caltrans, D1 MnDOT Michigan DOT CT DOT Maine DOT MassDOT MTC MTC Iowa DOT NJTPA MD SHA VDOT Arizona DOT TNDOT WFLHD/AKDOT&PF AK Oahu MPO NCTCOG CAMPO Hillsborough MPO South Florida MPOs Pilot Pilot HI 27

28 PILOT OVERVIEW FHWA Climate Resilience Pilots Temperature Climate Variables Covered Precipitation & flooding Sea level rise & storm surge Assets Assessed Roads, bridges & culverts Rail Vulnerabilities Identified Adaptation Strategies Evaluated Adaptation Costbenefit Analyses Conducted MD SHA X X X X Hillsborough MPO X X X X X X X MnDOT X X X X X MTC X X X X X CT DOT X X X X Arizona DOT X X X X TNDOT X X X X X CAMPO X X X X X Michigan DOT X X X X Oregon DOT X X X X X X Maine DOT X X X X X CalTrans, D1 X X X X X X WSDOT X X X X X Broward MPO X X X X X X Iowa DOT X X X X MassDOT X X X X NCTCOG X X X X X NYSDOT X X X X X X AKDOT&PF/FLMA X X X X X X X 28

29 Washington State DOT Study Statewide vulnerability assessment Meetings with maintenance staff Results integrated into environmental review guidance Several state DOTs have since replicated approach WSDOT Pilot Vulnerability Assessment Results. Source: WSDOT Study Focus on Skagit River Basin highly vulnerable to flooding Flood study was planned for area Developed profiles and strategies for 11 locations of concern Study: Eleven areas of more focused study in the Skagit River Basin. Source: WSDOT

30 South Florida (Broward MPO) Final results for Miami Dade County 30

31 MassDOT 31 Probability of flooding from sea level rise in 2030 assuming a high emissions scenario. Source: MassDOT.

32 Maryland SHA Assessed vulnerability of assets in two counties through a tiered approach Tier I: Mapped projected sea level rise, storm surge, and riverine flooding; screened for assets exposed to climate stressors Tier II: Used indicator-based approach to assess the vulnerability of bridges and roads Results will inform Tier III: specify adaptation measures 32 on a site-specific basis Map of 2050 sea level rise inundation levels in Somerset County. Source: MDSHA

33 Iowa DOT Modeling Linked precipitation projections to streamflow in Skunk and Cedar River Basins Modeled projected 100-yr event flood levels for 6 locations Findings Flood projections are more model-specific than emission scenario-specific Four of six locations found vulnerable to future flooding (100-yr flows) 33

34 CAMPO Assessed vulnerability to drought, extreme heat, precipitation/flooding, and wildfire across the 6-county planning area Conducted a criticality assessment through a workshop approach Identified sensitivity thresholds through interviews with engineers and operations and maintenance experts Evaluated select critical assets for potential disruption, deterioration and damage. Incorporated the project s results into CAMPO s 2040 Regional Transportation Plan Damaged road. Source: CAMPO 34

35 NCTCOG Collected and analyzed data on flooding, temperature, urban heat islands, local soil and hydrology in GIS Collected data on road, rail, & airport assets from existing inventories Assessed criticality using traffic and passenger data Identified critical assets within the current 100-yr floodplain and assessed heat risk Intend to incorporate analysis in transportation plan, use for project development and Map of shrink-swell clay soils. Source: NCTCOG 35 prioritization Flooding impacts in Dallas, Texas. Source: NCTCOG

36 Sampling of Program Outcomes Caltrans District 1 is providing information from their analysis to help a local transportation planning agency assess routing options over a river Michigan DOT is adding new fields to their asset management system to display the vulnerability assessment results Connecticut DOT planned to update their Drainage Manual as a result of this project Capital Area MPO & Hillsborough MPO incorporated vulnerability assessment results into their 2040 Long Range Transportation Plans Iowa DOT is adding data generated during the pilot project into their BridgeWatch program (a real-time bridge monitoring and alert system) to help decision-makers take a proactive approach to public safety during potential overtopping events Maryland State Highway Administration is using the results of this study to delineate a Climate Change Impact Zone to help screen new project plans and designs for future climate impacts 36