Germany: long term climate protection scenarios towards 2050

Transcription

1 Germany: long term climate protection scenarios towards 25 Dr. Manfred Fischedick Director Future Energy- and Mobility Structures International Workshop on 25 Low Carbon Scnearios Tokyo

2 Science Company Wuppertal Institute Legal and financial status President: Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke Setting up: 1991 conducted by Prof. Dr. Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker Legal form: Ltd., Non-Profit-Organisation; Member of the Science Centre of North Rhine-Westphalia Ownership: State of North Rhine- Westphalia Staff: more than 15 members from all disciplines Projects: 8-1 projects per year Budget 24: 2.9 m. Euro basic funds from the state of North Rhine-Westphalia (strong decreasing trend) 5.4 m. Euro of third party funds (UN, EU, Ministries, Private Sector, NGOs)

3 Introduction and Overview Overview Philosophy of scenario work in the Wuppertal Institute Overview: Long term energy scenarios in Germany Longterm energy scenario Germany - one example -Targets - Methodology - Necessary steps - Major findings - Open questions and necessary in depth analysis Conclusions

4 Philosophy of Wuppertal Institutes Scenario Work Common understanding? Scenarios are quite different from predictions Scenarios are asking what happens if. Scenarios are based on a consistent set of assumptions which should be outlined transparently Scenarios are necessary - to pick up future uncertainties - to identify the corresponding range of possible future paths (including the branching points) - to describe the major impacts and dangers of those paths - to gain more experience about the manifold interactions in the system - to enable an elaborate discussion about suitable policy and technology strategies following defined targets In particular long term scenarios are helpful tools for strategy discussion but not for short term policies

5 Long experience of long term energy in scenarios in Germany First scenarios in the early 198 s (nuclear extension path) Selected current scenario studies for Germany No climate reduction Business as Usual projections: goals defined Prognos/EWI: Energy Report III (1999) Prognos: updated report for the Enqûete-Commission (22) Climate protection scenarios: ÖI/DIW/FZJ/ISI: Policy scenarios (23) DLR/Wuppertal Institut/ifeu: Optimized extension of renewable energies within an overall climate protection scenario (24) Prognos/Wuppertal Institut/IER: Long term energy scenarios for the German Enquête-Commission Sustainable Energy supply (22) Wuppertal Institut/DLR - German Environment Agency: Long term perspectives of the energy system (22) BMWa: Scientific network group Modelling experiments ( ) - different tasks Ongoing studies: Prognos/EWI: Energy Report IV (25) Climate reduction goals defined (5-8%)

6 Climate protection targets and their background IPCC recommendation for industrialized countries Increasing gap between BAU and climate protection requirements Mio. t CO2 - energy related emissions only - 1., [ y ] 8 6 Commitment - 25% in 25 Governmental declaration 22: - 4% in 22 4 Kyoto-target Recommendations Enquete; IPCC: - 8% in Reference case Scenario Nat. conservation Reduction targets urces: DIW-report 1/24; reduction path: BMU 24 oeko\co2deu.pre;3.1.4

7 Strategy options for climate protection awareness energy consumption rational use of energy renewable energy substitution coal to gas

8 Necessary steps: Determination of technical potentials Potentials of domestic renewables in Germany are high - even under stringent restrictions of nature conservation Hydropower Wind, onshore Potential Present use Assumptions: Wind, offshore Photovoltaic Biomass Geothermal Share of elctr. in 23, % Biomass solar collectors Geothermal (hydrothermal) Share of heating fuel in 23, % TWh/yr (%) Biomass: 1 % stationary use with 75% cogeneration. (optional 21 TWh/yr biofuels = 27% of present consumption) Geothermal electricity: Lower value with heat use in cogeneration, upper value without restrictions

9 Dynamic instead of status Quo potential analysis Potentials are changing within the time frame and depending from ecological restrictions Additional biomass potential 21 (PJ/a) due to achievement of nature conservation objectives Thousand hectares Compensation areas Forest margin development Open country Sustainability criteria Sect. 3 Fed. Nat. Conserv. Act Sect. 5 Fed. Nat. Conserv. Act Erosion risk Freely available crop growing area

10 Necessary steps: Learning curves are crucial for long term scenarios,16 23:,186 EUR/kWh 23:,71 EUR/kWh Wasser cost of electricity generartion in Ct/kWh Stromgestehungskosten, EUR/kWh,14,12,1,8,6 Wind Photovoltaik Geothermie Stromimport Biomasse Biogas Mittelwert BASIS I oeko/kost2; ,

11 Necessary steps: Comparison of technological options on the time frame taking policy instruments and changing frame conditions into consideration 1 8 Promotion of technological innovations Cost of CO2-emissions, EUR/t 4-6 Electricity costs in ct/kwh yg, 6 4 Subsidies for fossil energies 15 2 Fossil low prices Fossil medium prices Fossil + emission trade Coal-plants CO2-capture New REN - plants only oeko/ko-verg4; 2.2.4

12 Necessary steps: Looking behind the border - global link and international cooperation The regional utilization of renewables has to be integrated timely in supraregional and trans-european utilization systems Solar Wind Hydro Geothermal EURO-MED possible further interconnections

13 Bringing all options together - taking interactions into consideration Methodology: bottom up energy system modelling Reference Energy System (RES) - technology approach 5W5W Primary energy Finalnergy Usable energy New Energies - Biofuel, Methanol - Hydrogen Mineral oil processing H2 Energy efficient technologies Conventional energy - Extraction - Processing Natural Gas suply Electricity production (power plant) Transport Distribution Modification End-use Energyservices Energy management Reewable Energies New, decentralised production techniques Power - renewable Energies C - fuel cell Heat - micro gas turbine cooling -BHKW Energy policy Liberatisation E EG K W K-Law Association agreement K yoto m echanism EnEV

14 Major findings Development of primary energy demand Primary energy demand in PJ 14. Business as usual Targets 25: y gy, y Substantial increase in efficiency = 35% Substantial growth of Renewables = 35% Hydropower, other REN Coal Biomass Oil Wind energy Natural gas REN - import Increased efficiency Nuclear energy - 75% CO 2 (2) oeko/pev-bas2.pre;8.12.3

15 Major findings Development of final energy demand in different areas g, [ ] "Effizienz" Haushalte Industrie GHD Verkehr Electricity TWh g [ ] "Effizienz" Warmwasser alle Prozesswärme GHD + Haush. Prozesswärme Industrie Raumwärme GHD + Ind. Raumwärme Haushalte oeko\waerme-2; Heat (PJ) oeko/stromver; g [ ] "Effizienz" Güterverkehr Schiene, Schiff Güterverkehr Straße Flugverkehr Öffentlicher Personenverkehr Mot. Individualverkehr oeko/verkehr2; Transport Fuels (PJ) Efficiency compared to Ref.: (in % to 2) Electr. = - 45 PJ (26%) Heat = PJ (36%) Transp. = PJ (41%) Final Energy = - 33 PJ (36%)

16 Major findings Electricity generation - substantial system changes needed - Scenario NatureConservationPlus I - Electricity generation in TWh Import renewables Photovoltaic Geothermal Wind offshore Wind onshore Hydropower Biomass, biogas CHP, fossil Gas cond. 1 Coal cond. Nuclear energy ,3 21,2 29,5 35,9 4,2 39,9 % 5,7 12,8 25,7 4, 48,1 55,6 % oeko\stromer2; CHP incl. biomass REN excl. biomasse-chp

17 Major findings Additional costs seem to be acceptable - Example: electricity generation Yearly average costs for the whole time frame (21 25) Mittlere Gesamkosten, Mrd. EUR/a Total costs in Bio. Euro/a ,2 - Erzeugung, Nutzungseffizienz, HS-Verteilung - Untere Var. Mittlere Var. Obere Var. 31,6 32,2 33,2 35,6 34,5 39,3 REF BASIS REF BASIS REF BASIS REF, CO2-arm Effizienzsteigerung Erzeugung Average cost of electricity saving: 5, cts/kwh Mittlere spez. Stromkosten (MS) (ct/kwh) 5,7 5,35 5,4 5,68 5,96 5,95 6,58 oeko/strom-kos;

18 General targets for sustainable energy systems Side benefits of climate protection policies Improvement of national energy resource basis ( independent from import risks, contribution to a higher security of supply) Protection of limited fossil energy reserves Reduction of costs for energy services and of economic risks ( high price volatility of fossil energy carriers) Contribution to environmental/climate requirements Gaining employment effects ( Innovation potential - technology developments Increasing export chances (development of adapted technologies) Low risk potential ( low accident potential, resistant to terrorist attacks and sabotage) International acceptability ( resistant to policy crises)

19 Major findings Climate protection policy stimulates the markets Market volume in Mill. Euro/yr 18. Hydropower Wind Photovoltaic REN--Import 16. Collectors Biomass Geothermal Domestic market only Steady investment of 12 to 14 Bill. /yr from 22 (including Biofuels about 18 to 2 Bill. /yr) Accumulated amount: Until 22: 14 Bill., until 25: 5 Bill oeko/inv-np1; Export markets are in the same order.

20 Long Term Energy Scenario (German Enquete Commission) Selected scenario results overall electricity generation [TWh] Construction demand: More than 5 nuclear power plants Open question: Viability of CO2-Sequestration REF UWE WI UWE IER RRO WI RRO IER FNE WI FNE IER REF UWE WI UWE IER RRO WI Statistik Sufficient technological and market dynamic REN/RUE hard coal lignite oil natural gas nuclear energy biomass geothermal energy hydrogen hydropower wind energy photovoltaics REN-Import RRO IER FNE WI NH3 IER

21 Conclusions Climate protection is feasible from technology side of view and implementation can be realized by acceptable costs Climate protection is necessary due to the moral responsibility for the south and coming generations Adaptation is no alternative but due to already caused damages of the climate to a certain extent unavoidable Climate protection can be accompanied in particular in first mover countries with side benefits (e.g. new innovations, employment effects) Climate protection is connected with significant structural changes and requires a sophisticated and reliable long term energy and climate policy Policy makers should be aware of the high time constants for structural changes in the energy sector (operation time of power plants, creation of new infrastructures) - starting right now with actions is without alternative Energy scenarios can help to find the right way for action

22 Thank you for your attention! Contact details: Dr. Manfred Fischedick Wuppertal Institut Döppersberg Wuppertal (FAX) (Sekretariat)