Managing a Sustainable Urbanization

Transcription

1 Managing a Sustainable Urbanization Professor Zou Ji Program of Energy and Climate Economics (PECE) Renmin University of China China Country Director World Resources Institute

2 Outline The trends of urbanization Urbanization in China: special feature Challenges and opportunities in urbanization Sustainability: the right direction of urbanization Making blueprints for lower carbon cities in China: cases in Qingdao City and Guiyang City Recommendations

3 Outline The trends of urbanization Urbanization in China: special feature Challenges and opportunities in urbanization Sustainability: the right direction of urbanization Making blueprints for lower carbon cities in China: cases in Qingdao City and Guiyang City Recommendations

4 % Shar e of Ur ban Popul at i on i n t he Tot al Wor l d Popul at i on Source: Economist, 2007 Year

5 Sustainable Mobility Urban Population by Region Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2009 Revision. New York, 2010

6 Sustainable Mobility Urban Population by Region Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2009 Revision. New York, 2010

7 Sustainable Mobility Urban Population by Region Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2009 Revision. New York, 2010

8 Cities have a large footprint... If all production and consumption based emissions are included urban residents likely account for more than 80% of the world s GHG emissions Business as usual projections suggest that today s 800m vehicles will increase to between 2-3bn by A lot of cities, e.g., among the northern cities in China, face water stress in terms of both quantity and quality

9 Sustainable Mobility Possible Trajectories

10 Outline The trends of urbanization Urbanization in China: special feature Challenges and opportunities in urbanization Sustainability: the right direction of urbanization Making blueprints for lower carbon cities in China: cases in Qingdao City and Guiyang City Recommendations

11 Changes in the Rural-Urban Ratio in China

12 Forecast of Chinese Urbanization Ratio *2010 China Statistical Yearbook: PECE Projection Model

13 Numbers of Cities (with scale larger than a million population)

14 City Sizes Total >5 Million 3-5 Million 1-3 Million million million <0.2 million 2008 Number Percentage 2% 1% 26% 41% 24% 6% 2000 Number Percentage 1% 1% 7% 14% 45% 32% Source: 1. China Urban Construction Statistical yearbook 2009; 2. The 4th and 5th nationwide population census

15 Top Ten City Regions The roles of large cities in the world and in China: population and economics 6.5% of the population live in the world s ten largest city regions These regions account for 45% of all economic activity The Exploding Middle Class China has about 90 cities with a middle class population of 250,000 or more. By 2020 that number will increase to Source: WRI, 2011 The US and Canada together have fewer than 70

16 Major feature of urbanization in China: a matter of development stage Dual structure: rural population accounts for around 50% of the whole population With lower income, inadequate social security, and lower level of human development Unsafe drinking water and poor supply of energy, housing, and urban infrastructure service Accompanying the process of industrialization: leading manufacture dominance in most municipal economies

17 Outline The trends of urbanization Urbanization in China: special feature Challenges and opportunities in urbanization Sustainability: the right direction of urbanization Making blueprints for lower carbon cities in China: cases in Qingdao City and Guiyang City Recommendations

18 Challenges Shortage of financial resources for upgrading and/or constructing urban infrastructure in the context of Sovereignty debt crisis and recession in developed economies, incl. EU Inflation, local debt pressure in China Path dependency and lock-in effects of high carbon growth pathways in developing countries Market barriers and failure in innovation, demonstration and diffusion of clean technologies

19 Challenges (Cont d) Social equity and imbalance derived from the gap between commercial interest/market mechanism and the value of livability and human oriented urban development Build up capacity for a good governance The public and major stakeholders Government, parliaments, legal system, and political organizations

20 Strategic opportunities Searching new engines for stepping out from the recession in EU economy upgrading urban infrastructure and innovation of clean/low carbon technology Green jobs, green economies Restructuring Chinese economy and shifting to sustainable pathways

21 Outline The trends of urbanization Urbanization in China: special feature Challenges and opportunities in urbanization Sustainability: the right direction of urbanization Making blueprints for lower carbon cities in China: cases in Qingdao City and Guiyang City Recommendations

22 Understanding sustainability The World Commission Report defines sustainable development to be... development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (World Commission, 1987: 43).

23 Understanding sustainability (cont d) The concept of needs, in particular the essential needs of the world s poor, to which overriding priority should be given for equity; and The idea of limitations imposed by the state of technology and social organization on the environment s ability to meet present and future needs.

24 Model and Pathways Per capita emissions (tco2e) USA Australia Canada Netherlands 10 Germany Japan UK 8 South Africa Italy France 6 China? 4 Brazil Egypt Indonesia 2 Angola Pakistan India Nigeria Zambia HDI

25 CO 2 Emission Scenario Gt CO ,3 16, , ,6 6,8 7,6 11,4 8,2 8,8 9,2 7,9 9,5-66% 5,5-28%

26 Technological roadmap: contribution to emission reduction by different type of technologies GT CO Fossil fuel switching CCS nuclear Reference biofuel Renewable power efficiency EA Year

27 MACs in 2050 (EA scenario) 1,200 1,100 1,000 Mitigation cost ($US, 2005 price) LED CCPP Waste heat power h-eff electronic devices USC/SC esidual heat and pressure recovery Large Hydro Advanced air conditioning Small Hydro Ground Heat Pump IGCC Natural gas power Eco-Cement On-shore wind (strong) CMC Injecting Waste Plastics Geothermal New building envelopelarge scale alumina Advanced NSP 2nd gen Bio High-power electronic devices 3rd gen nuclear Other renewable On-shore wind (weak wind) CHP and BCHP CDQ Advanced diesel vehicles Efficient grinding IGCC+CCS USC+CCS PV Advanced EAF Smelting Reduction Advanced gasoline vehicles Off-shore wind 4th gen nuclear Large scale ammonia by coal Itmk3 Iron-making Hybrid M&L sized Fuel cell vehicle Fuel cell Pure electric vehicle Large scale ammonia by natural gas Smart grid CCS in the industryzero-emisison building Large scale ethylene Hybrid Electric LDVs CSP Source: PECE, 2010 Mitigation potential, 10^8 t CO2

28 Outline The trends of urbanization Urbanization in China: special feature Challenges and opportunities in urbanization Sustainability: the right direction of urbanization Making blueprints for lower carbon cities in China: cases in Qingdao City and Guiyang City Recommendations

29 Addressing Diversity and Representability

30 Diversified Starting Points of Provinces and Cities in China: Towards Different Low Carbon Pathways

31 Understanding Low Carbon City Continuous urbanization and industrialization in the coming decades Increasing income (GDP) Livable: improving living standard and life quality (Human Development Index) Higher efficiency: Total Factor Productivity less reliance on inputs of labor, energy & resources, and emission Comparative indicator: intensity of energy and fossil fuel - related CO2

32 Blueprint for Low Carbon City 1. Analysis of socioeconomic development 2. Energy use and inventory of CO2 at city level 3. Scenario of socioeconomic development, energy use, and CO2 emission 4. Setting up and allocating emission control target: from municipality to sectors 5. Identification of prioritized sectors, companies, technologies and proposed investment projects 6. Spatial optimization (transport, land use, ) 7. Financial mechanism

33 Sector-wide CO2 Emission in Qingdao 2005 and 2009

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41 Outline The trends of urbanization Urbanization in China: special feature Challenges and opportunities in urbanization Sustainability: the right direction of urbanization Recommendations

42 Communication and studies More thematic and systematic dialogues, communication, and joint studies cum trainings on urbanization Establish EU-China joint initiatives on sustainable urbanization

43 Joint Pilots and demonstration integrative master plan comprehensive management sustainable urban transport Sustainable building Ancillary environmental quality for low carbon urbanization Positive interaction between urban and rural development Improvement of the weaker groups welfare in education and social security optimization of spatial planning: more mix of places for work and residence

44 Searching for broader range of opportunities Green investment and trade Policy dialogues and coordination Technology transfer and diffusion

45 Thank you for your attention!