Application of the Lagrangian model GRAL and the online coupled meteorology-chemistry model WRF/chem to the Santiago de Chile region

Transcription

1 Application of the Lagrangian model GRAL and the online coupled meteorology-chemistry model WRF/chem to the Santiago de Chile region Peter Suppan 1, Martin Nogalski 1, Johannes Werhahn 1, Renate Forkel 1, Ulrich Uhrner 2, Andreas Justen 3, Ulrich Franck 4 1 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Campus Alpine, Germany 2 German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Transport Research, Passenger Transport, Berlin 3 Technical University of Graz, Institute for Internal Combustion Engines and Thermodynamics, Graz, Austria KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association

2 Motivation Risk-Habitat-Megacity Multi-disciplinary research task Development of a modeling chain Development of scenarios 2 October 3 rd, 2011 Peter Suppan

3 Risk Habitat Megacity sostenibilidad en riesgo? Local Stakeholders Risk Habitat Megacity Scientific Advisory Board Programme Coordinator Programme Steering Group Development and Dissemination of Knowledge Goals Problem Action Cross-Cutting Concept: Sustainable Development Cross-Cutting Concept: Risk Cross-Cutting Concept: Governance Land - use management Socio-spatial differentiation Energy system Transportation Air quality and health Water resources and services Waste management Methods Indicators Toolkits Scenarios Capacity Building Scientific training Training of practitioners Workshops 3 October 3 rd, 2011 Peter Suppan

4 Modeling Chain > 8000 street sections Traffic modeling ESTRAUS locally observed meteorological input Traffic emission modeling MODEM s Pollutant dispersion modeling GRAL Air quality modeling WRF/chem 61 vehicle categories 5 categories of emissions 6 emission pollutants 3 scenarios inert chemistry micro-scale meso-scale Background chemistry Health Impact Assessment 4 October 3 rd, 2011 Peter Suppan

5 Scenarios Background Strong participation with civil society stakeholders and political decision-makers of the regional government and national ministries Essential precondition for producing relevant and broadly acceptable project results Inputs for current planning and decision-making processes in the Santiago Metropolitan Region Likewise a necessary precondition for considering longer-term perspectives which are essential in the sustainable development context Approach represents an important distinctive feature compared to other projects on Megacity issues 5 October 3 rd, 2011 Peter Suppan

6 Framework Scenarios Scenarios based on storylines of societal driving factors ( until 2030) Economic development Institutional frameworks Demographics Technical development Societal value system Business-as-usual (BAU) Collective Responsibility (CR) Market Individualism (MI) Continuation of liberalisation and privatisation trends, persistence of strong market forces and weak public regulation activities, continuation of existing social protection measures and subsidy schemes for the poorest Characterised by social and environmental justice as principal goals of public regulation, strong regulation of market activities and large public investments, together with the embedding of technologies in society and decoupling of socioeconomic development from resource use Increasing individual freedom and freedom of action, markets as the dominant vehicle for all societal transactions, together with resources and services generation and distribution strongly subject to supply and demand principles. But also basic socioeconomic variables are estimated: GDP growth rate, population, household income, persons per household, share of economic branches 6 October 3 rd, 2011 Peter Suppan

7 Contextualization of Scenarios Translation into Transportation / Air Quality & Health Modal Split: BAU MI CR Population (Mill.) Car trips 36.6 % 38.5 % 48.1 % 41.6 % Bus & Metro trips 49.0 % 45.9 % 35.7 % 43.1 % Bicycle trips % 7.0 % 10.0 % Increase of highways % 130 % 0 % Additional metro lines --- Line 6 Line 6 Line 6, 3 Transport tariffs 400 CHP 600 CHP 1000 CHP 400 CHP EURO5: 2017 EURO5: 2018 EURO5: 2015 Emission Standards EURO3 EURO6: 2020 EURO6: 2020 EURO6: % e-propulsion 15 % e-propulsion 15 % e-propulsion 7 October 3 rd, 2011 Peter Suppan

8 Results 8 October 3 rd, 2011 Peter Suppan

9 Traffic Development MI 2,738,735 2,239,163 BAU 2,371,707 1,114,614 1,263,830 1,465,124 1,394,390 1,309,697 1,859,936 1,640,861 1,450,261 1,965,310 1,606,355 CR 1,798,811 Business as Usual Market Individualism Collective Responsibility Source: Andreas Justen, DLR 9 October 3 rd, 2011 Peter Suppan

10 Development of Technology Share 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Passenger Cars Technology Share Gasoline without Cat. Gasoline Euro 1/2 Gasoline Euro 3 Gasoline Euro 4 Gasoline Euro 5 Gasoline Euro 6 Diesel Euro 1/2 Diesel Euro 3 Diesel Euro 4 Diesel Euro 5 Diesel Euro 6 Plug In Hybrid Electric Vehicle PHEV Gasoline Euro Gasoline Euro Passenger cars technology share in Santiago de Chile based on the Business As Usual scenario 10 October 3 rd, 2011 Peter Suppan Martin Nogalski (IMK-IFU) - Master Thesis

11 Traffic & Emission Modelling: Santiago ESTRAUS total vehicle flow street network Emission factors experimental results MODEM 61 vehicle categories Buses licitados Diesel convencional Buses licitados Diesel tipo 1 Buses licitados Diesel tipo 2 Buses licitados Diesel tipo 3 Buses licitados DIesel tipo 3 Articulando Buses licitados Diesel tipo 2 con filtro Buses licitados Diesel tipo 3 con filtro Buses Interurbanos Diesel convencional Buses Interurbanos Diesel tipo 1 Buses Alimentador Diesel tipo 2 Buses Alimentador Diesel tipo 3 Buses Alimentador Diesel tipo 3 con filtro Vehicular disaggregation fleet composition Temporal disaggregation Driving profiles 5 categories of emissions cold emissions hot emissions evaporation resuspension ( abrasion tyres, abrasion brakes) Annual Emissions Hourly Emissions E ijk [g] =TF j [veh/h]*l j [km]*vd jk *TF jk * EF[g/km] ik 6 emission pollutants PM10 SO2 NOx HC CO CO2 [Gasoline consumption] Input data for the simulation of traffic emissions 11 October 3 rd, 2011 Peter Suppan

12 Traffic Emissions PM 10 Heavy Duty Vehicles (> 16 t konv.): 28.8 % Heavy Duty Vehicles ( t): 9.1% Heavy Duty Vehicles (< 7.5 t): 5.8% Light Duty Vehicles: 22.1% Others: 2.8% Busses: 12.4% Traffic emission distribution for PM 10 and NO x in the Greater Region of Santiago de Chile in 2010 Passenger Cars: 19.0% Heavy Duty Vehicles (> 16 t konv.): 27.4 % Others: 2.1% Busses: 22.9% Heavy Duty Vehicles ( t): 8.2% Heavy Duty Vehicles (< 7.5 t): 4.3% Light Duty Vehicles: 16.5% Passenger Cars: 18.6% NO x 12 October 3 rd, 2011 Peter Suppan

13 Key problems - Emissions inventory Official Emission Inventory (all sources included) NOx VOCs 13 October 3 rd, 2011 Peter Suppan

14 Key problems - Emissions inventory Official Emission Inventory (all sources included) Result: Ozone concentration about 30 ppbv in maximum NOx VOCs 14 October 3 rd, 2011 Peter Suppan

15 Key problems - Emissions inventory Manually Adapted Emission Inventory NOx VOCs 15 October 3 rd, 2011 Peter Suppan

16 Key problems - Emissions inventory Manually Adapted Emission Inventory Result: typical urban ozone concentrations NOx VOCs 16 October 3 rd, 2011 Peter Suppan

17 Coupling of Scales Micro-scale modelling e.g. NO x with GRAL Meso-scale modeling e.g. NO 2 with WRF/chem Idealized performance of interaction between scales 17 October 3 rd, 2011 Peter Suppan

18 Problem Adaption of emission inventory far too problematic not scientifically sound Health impact assessment not reliable Procedure was stopped Continuation only on the micro scale Health impact studies on observations. 18 October 3 rd, 2011 Peter Suppan

19 Air Pollution Distribution MI BAU CR 2006 Johannes Werhahn, IMK-IFU 19 October 3 rd, 2011 Peter Suppan Annual mean NOx distribution for 2006 (only traffic emissions) in the Greater Region of Santiago de Chile BAU MI CR - business as usual - market individualism - collective responsibility

20 Adverse Results: Health ImpactEffects: Santiago Maximal daily risk increase per 10 µg/m³ PM10 % 10,0 9,0 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 8,2 8,4 7,4 Hypertensive diseases Ischemic heart diseases 6,3 Other heart diseases I10 - I13 I20 - I25 I30 - I51 J11 - J18 J40 - J47 disease group 8,9 Influenza and pneumonia Chronic lower resp. dis. Mortality Risks per 10 µg/m³ PM 10 Source: Ulrich Franck, UFZ 20 October 3 rd, 2011 Peter Suppan

21 Conclusions Scenario development needs multidisciplinary views and approaches Assessment of traffic emissions is a straight forward process Air quality modeling needs reliable input data Coupled micro-mesoscale modeling is needed to describe the air pollution levels for further analysis It is now understood that the battle against climate change will likely be won - or lost - in cities. However, research thus far has concentrated mostly at the sector (e.g. agriculture, water, energy) and national levels. Targeted research at the city level is needed to enable policy makers to understand the magnitude of the impacts and the alternatives to improve resilience of the cities (World Bank 2008) 21 October 3 rd, 2011 Peter Suppan

22 Thank you very much for your attention Source: Siemens Source: E. Chatterjee Source: Getty Images Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Source: A. Künzelmann Source: Siemens 22 October 3 rd, 2011 Peter Suppan