Asia / World Energy Outlook 2009

Transcription

1 42nd Forum on Research Works 23 October 29, Tokyo, Japan Asia / World Energy Outlook 29 The Role of Technology Towards the Resolution of Energy & Environmental Issues in Asia The Institute of Energy Economics, JAPAN (IEEJ) Managing Director Kokichi ITO Economist Ryoichi KOMIYAMA 1

2 Outline - Asia/World Energy Outlook 29 - Projection Outline Objective, Methodology, Major assumptions Projection Results Overview: World and Asia Primary Energy Demand CO 2 Emissions Motorization, Power Generation Mix, Renewables Technologically Advanced Scenario (Tech. Adv.) Energy Outlook in Major Countries China, India, ASEAN, United States of America Implication 2

3 Projection Outline Objective: Attempt to quantitatively simulate realistic energy pictures in a fully logical and consistent way, with elaborate investigation into current status of socio-economic and energy fundamentals, in both world and Asian regions. Analysis of Asian region is, in particular, carefully implemented through the exchange of information with numerous agencies specialized in study of Asia. Projection Period: 28 ~ 235 Methodology: Energy Demand and Supply Model Macro-Economic Model Bottom-up Type Technology Estimation Model Scenarios: Reference Reference scenario anticipates highly probable deployment of energy policy and energy technology based on current economic & political situations, which yields normative future evolution of energy demand and supply Technologically Advanced Scenario (Tech. Adv.) This scenario develops future picture which assumes; - Accelerated R&D encourages global deployment of advanced technology. - Global technological cooperation and technological transfer from developed to developing countries are promoted. - All the countries of the world take technological advanced measures in order to secure energy demand and supply. 3

4 Towards the Realization of 3E(Environment, Economy, Energy security) in Asia and the World Agenda on Energy- Environmental Policy Firm resolutions on ensuring energy security, R&D and adressing climate change are significant Expansion of Non-fossil fuel Best Mix (diversification and efficient energy use) Oil & gas supply security 22 Economic Growth Nuclear PV, Wind, Bio-fuel etc. Environmentally compatible use of fossil fuel - Clean Coal Technology(IGCCI, CCS) -MACC Clean Energy Vehicles (Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles EV etc.) Battery technology Power electronics etc. Fuel cell Heat-pump Smart grid, smart meter etc. Low Carbon Society 3E in Asia and World Procuring Sustainability by the Realization of 3E (Environment, Economy, Energy security) in Asia and the World Energy Security Technological Strategy of Japan Japan should focus on its competitive technological edge. Accelerated R&D for Advanced Technology towards 23 & 25 Transfer of low carbon technology and knowledge on building energy policy to other countries. Achieving economic growth by establishing new energy & environmental industry Development and deployment of innovative technology and social system from long-term viewpoint Energy demand expansion in China, India etc. Risk of extraordinary price escalation of fossil fuel (Peak-out of Easy Oil) Massive introduction of innovative technology Acceleration of development of low carbon technology Sustainable economic growth Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) SPS Innovative industrial process Geo-engineering Distributed energy system Low carbon town Hydrogen society 3R (reuse, reduce, recycle) technology

5 Geographical Coverage The whole world is geographically divided into 3 regions, Asia into 14 regions. Geopolitically detailed analysis into Asian countries. North America America Canada Latin America The United Kingdom Germany France Italia Other E.OECD Mexico Chile Other L.America OECD Europe Middle East Middle East Africa Africa Non-OECD Europe Former Soviet Union Non-OECD Europe Asia(14 regions) China Japan Hong Kong Taiwan Korea Singapore Brunei Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam India Other Asia Oceania Australia New Zealand 5

6 Basic Framework MACRO Economic Model GDP components Price/Labor etc. Industrial activities Transport activities Energy Demand-Supply Model Energy Demand Conversion Sector Energy Supply CO 2 emissions GDP, Crude oil price, Exchange rate, Population, Power generation outlook, World trade etc. Development of country-specific macro economic model in China, Korea and ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand) World Trading Model of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products (LP Optimization ) End-use Energy Technology Model (Automobile, Electric Appliances etc.) These models allow us to fully understanding the interaction among numerous parameters in a logical and consistent way. 6

7 Highlight: Primary Energy Demand & CO 2 Emissions Primary Energy Demand CO 2 Emissions 18, 15, 12, Mtoe Energy Demand Reduction in 235 OECD 691 Non- OECD 1614 Asia ,493 11,78 15,727 Reference 13,526 14,25 12,673 Tech. Adv. 16,877 14,572 OECD Non- OECD Gt-CO 2 CO 2 Reduction in 235 OECD 4 Non- OECD 8 Asia 7 28 Reference Tech. Adv. 38 OECD Non- OECD , 6,549 7, ,

8 Highlight: CO 2 Emissions (World) In 235, world total primary energy demand in Tech. Adv. Scenario decreases by 2,3 Mtoe in comparison with Reference Scenario. 23 Mtoe is approximately 4 times as much as TPES of Japan. Energy saving of Non-OECD in 235 is almost double as large as that of OECD. Saving potential in Asia, 1,3 Mtoe, shows particularly massive amount. In 235, global CO2 emissions in Tech. Adv. Scenario decreases by 12.3 Gt-CO2 (3% reduction) Gt is about 1 times as much as CO2 emissions of Japan. CO2 mitigation of Non-OECD in 235 amounts to double as large as that of OECD. Abatement potential in Asia, 6.8 Gt-CO2, represents particularly immense amount. Technology transfer and swift deployment of advanced technology in Asia, which shows most prominent energy demand growth and CO2 emissions increase, is indispensable in order to address global warming problem. Global CO 2 Emissions (Reference & Tech. Adv. Scenario) Gt-CO 2 18 CO 2 Mitigation in 235 OECD 4Gt 21 Non- OECD 8Gt Asia 7Gt Reference 34 OECD Non-OECD Tech. Adv Gt-CO 2 CO2 mitigation potential in 235 Gt Share Energy Efficiency Biofuel.5 4 PV Wind.7 6 Nuclear Fuel Switching CCS Total Reference 28.8 Tech. Adv. Regional Breakdown OECD :1.5 Gt (12%) Non-OECD: 4.1Gt (33%) Energy Efficiency Biofuel PV Wind Nuclear Fuel sw itching CCS 12.3Gt ( 3%) Energy Saving in Non-OECD is essential part for addressing global warming problem Energy Efficiency 46% Fuel Switching 32% CCS 21%

9 Major Assumption: GDP Average Annual Growth Rate(%) China India Asia (ex. Japan) OECD Non OECD World % 6.1% 4.9% 1.9% 4.5% 2.8% China India Japan Korea Taiwan ASEAN World economy will continue to grow at 2.8% per annum to 235. Though recent world economy shows sluggish growth reflecting on subprime debacle and subsequent financial crunch in USA, global economy is projected to recover supported by economy-boosting measures by numerous countries. GDP in China continues to achieve relatively high growth and shifts toward moderate growth, as Chinese economic driver gradually changes from investment and export to domestic private consumption. GDP in India assumes high growth reflecting on improving economic efficiency by liberalization and direct investment from foreign countries. ASEAN countries will achieve continuous moderate growth on the basis of domestic private investment and foreign export. N.America OECD- Europe OECD Non-OECD Asia (ex.japan) World 9

10 Major Assumption: Population 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Million China India Japan ASEAN Other Asia Billion World Asia N.America 27 L.America OECD Europe Non-OECD Europe Of the incremental increase in population over the period , roughly 9% derives from Non-OECD. Population in China and India together will amount to about 3 billion and its share will grow to 35% by 235. Chinese population will peak out in 23 and experience aging combined with the diminishing number of children Africa Middle East Oceania China bil bil. (.14 bil. growth) India bil. 235 年 1.53 bil. (.38 bil. growth) 1

11 Major Assumption: Energy Price $/bbl Actual Forecast Crude Oil ,15 1,75 1 LNG (Right axis) Steam Coal (Right axis) $/t (*) 28 real price (**) All the prices are calendar year data; In the graph, energy prices are explained by Japan s import energy price (on a CIF basis). High crude oil price (import CIF price in Japan) in 28 will head for slowdown by 21. After 21, international oil market is forecast to become tightened as a result of oil demand increasing mainly driven by Asia, combined with stagnation of investment in upstream sector, boosting oil price higher for 235. (The above trajectory of crude oil price is determined as a middle line of assumed price range from 9$/bbl to 11$/bbl in 22 and from 11$/bbl to 13$/bbl in 235) LNG price is projected to increase in accordance with crude oil price. Coal price will show relatively moderate growth compared with crude oil and LNG. 11

12 Energy Price and Relative Price Relative Prices to Crude Oil Real price & Nominal Price Crude Oil Real $/bbl Nominal LNG Real ,75 1,15 $/t Nominal ,21 1,661 1,963 Steam Coal Real $/t Nominal * Real prices are set in 28. ** Inflation rates are assumed at 2% annually Relative prices to Crude Oil (Calorie basis) Actual Forecast LNG Steam Coal Currently, LNG price is cheaper compared with crude oil price. For the long-term trend, the price gap between crude oil and LNG will become smaller. By 23, LNG price will outstrip that of crude oil reflecting on the possible change of LNG price formula and environmental premium of natural gas. Coal relative price will remain roughly constant for

13 Energy Outlook in World and Asia 13

14 Primary Energy Demand by Region (World) 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 石油換算百万トン Mtoe AAGR* World 2.% 1.5% Asia 4.6% 2.5% N.America 1.%.3% *Average annual growth rate 3.6 bil.toe Asia 7.1 bil. toe World bil. toe bil. toe (1.5-fold increase) Asia bil. toe N.America 235 OECD Europe 7.1 bil. toe (2.-fold increase) Non-OECD Europe L. America Middle East Africa Oceania By 235, primary energy demand of Asia achieves twice as much as current level, reflecting high economic growth; 3.6 billion toe(27) 7.1 billion toe(235). Non-OECD will represent 9% of incremental growth of global energy demand toward

15 Primary Energy Demand (Regional Share) 1% 8% 6% OECD % 9% 8% 7% 6% Other Non-OECD Europe OECD Europe 4% 2% % 非 OECD % 4% 3% 2% 1% 1 % N.America Other ASEAN Japan India China Energy demand in Non-OECD and Asian region will exhibit a rapid expansion, with the share of Asian regions in world energy demand extending to around 4% by 235. The share of China in world energy demand will increase to 21% by 235, and India to 7%. These two countries in aggregate account for around 3% of world energy demand. The share of Japan will shrink from 5% in 27 to 3% in

16 Primary Energy Demand (Asia) Mtoe AAGR China India Japan Korea Taiwan Singapore % 6.% 1.5% 6.4% 5.2% 6.3% % 3.7% -.1% 1.5% 1.2% 1.9% China Japan Taiwan Malaysia Thailand Singapore Other Asia Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam Other Asia 6.4% 7.3% 3.4% 7.8% 7.7% 4.1% 3.7% 2.6% 4.5% 3.6% 5.9% 4.2% India Korea Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Hong Kong 14% 12% 5% Japan India China Based on booming economic growth, the share of China and India together in Asian primary energy demand significantly increases to 66% by 235. Japan s energy share in Asia, with its slower-paced economic growth and depopulation, will decline from 14% in 27 to 7% in % 17% 49% Asia bil. toe bil. toe (2.-fold increase) China / India bil. toe /.4 bil. toe bil. toe / 1.2 bil. toe (1.9-fold inc. / 2.8-fold inc.) 16

17 Incremental Increase in Primary Energy Demand by Region, China 29% Share in increase, India Japan ASEAN 13% % 12% Other Asia 7% N.America 4% 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Mtoe 石油換算百万トン China N.America OECD Other Europe Asia ASEAN L.America Others India Japan Asia : More than 6% of increase China Other Asia ASEAN India N.America Non-OECD Europe OECD Europe L.America Others Non-OECD Europe Japan 61% of global energy demand increase to 235 is due to Asia. In particular, approximately 4% of both China and India dominates the world increase. OECD is responsible for 12%, and Non-OECD, 88%. 17

18 Primary Energy Demand by Fuel (World) 7, 6, 5, 4, 石油換算百万トン Mtoe AAGR Total 2.% 1.5% Coal 2.2% 1.2% Oil 1.% 1.% Gas 2.7% 2.1% Fossil Fuel 89% 86% Oil 37% 32% Share: , 2, 1, Coal 29% 27% Other Renewables 2.9% 5.4% Nuclear 6.4% 6.9% Natural Gas 23% 27% Hydro 2.4% 2.5% Oil will remain the largest fuel in primary energy mix by 235. Around 235, natural gas demand will grow with its future extensive use in various sectors, eventually catching up with coal around 235. Fossil fuel continues to be the most important fuel by 235, though its share will slightly decrease from 89% in 27 to 86% in

19 Primary Energy Demand by Fuel (Asia) 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Mtoe 石油換算百万トン AAGR Total 4.6% 2.5% Coal 5.2% 1.8% Oil 3.1% 2.3% Gas 7.7% 4.1% Fossil Fuel 94% 88% Coal 52% 43% Share: Oil 31% 29% Natural Gas 11% 16% Nuclear 3.9% 6.3% Other Renewables 1.3% 4.1% Hydro 2.% 1.9% Coal and Oil will continue to maintain its centrality over Asian energy demand until 235. The share of natural gas will grow substantially to 16% by 235, driven mainly by power generation. Fossil fuel dominates 88% of total energy supply and plays a key role by

20 Primary Energy Mix by Fuel (World and Asia) 6 % World 6 % Asia Coal Oil Coal 32% 27% Oil 43% 29% 2 1 Hydro Other Renewables 27% Natural Gas Nuclear 6.9% 5.4% 2.5% Natural Gas 16% 2 Other Renewables 1 Nuclear 6.3% Hydro 4.1% 1.9% In Asia, coal remains the largest of primary energy source reflecting on boosting electric power demand by 235. (Coal share in Asia: 27: 52% 235: 43%) Nuclear share in Asia gradually expands with active building-up of nuclear power plants in China, India, Japan and South Korea. 2

21 Increase in Primary Energy Demand by Fuel ; World Increase in Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Other Renewables 23 % 22 % 34 % 8 % 3 % 1 % 3, Mtoe Fossil fuel occupies about 8% of total growth 2, Natural Gas Coal Oil 1, Nuclear Hydro Other Renewables Increase from 27 to % of global energy growth by 235 will be concentrated on fossil fuels Fossil fuel demand growth to 235 in Non-OECD will be responsible for about 9% of global fossil demand increasing. 21

22 Share of Increase in Primary Energy Demand by Fuel, World and Asia, % 8% 6% World 世界 アジア Asia Other Renewables Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas 4% 2% % Oil Coal Almost 8% of energy demand increase will be attributable to fossil fuels both in world and Asia. In Asia, coal will account for more than 3% of its energy demand increase to 235 and play a central role in terms of energy supply. 22

23 Oil Demand by Region (World) Mtoe Increase in % % -5% 1% Asia N.America Europe Other 2% 21% 25% 27% 1.3 bil. toe Others Europe N.America Asia 23% 16% 17% 38% bil. ton (85 mbd) bil. ton (113 mbd) 1.3-fold increase (1.3 bil. ton inc.) (28 mbd inc.) More than 7% of global oil increase will be derived from Asia; The share of Asia in terms of global oil demand will increase from 27% to 38%; Asia will continue to be the centre of oil demand by 235. Oil demand in OECD started to decrease since 25 and continue to decrease at -.3% per annum to 235; Non-OECD will show significant oil demand growth annually at 2.4%. 23

24 Oil Demand by Region (Asia) 2 1 Mtoe AAGR China India Japan Korea Taiwan Singapore % 5.5% -.1% 4.8% 3.1% 5.2% % 3.1% -1.2%.5%.6%.8% China Japan Taiwan Malaysia Thailand Singapore Other Asia Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam Other Asia 4.% 4.4%.8% 5.2% 7.6% 3.8% 2.% 1.8% 4.% 2.6% 3.4% 4.3% India Korea Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Hong Kong 21% 13% 33% Japan India China Though the continuous improvement of fuel efficiency of automobile and deployment of advanced vehicle is expected, oil demand in China will boost from 7.4 million B/D in 27 to 19. million B/D in 235, due mainly to its escalating vehicle possession. The share of China and India together in Asian oil demand will grow from 46% to 61% 8% 16% 45% billion ton (23 mbd) billion ton (42 mbd) 1.9-fold increase (2 mbd inc.) China 7.4 mbd 19. mbd India 2.9 mbd 7. mbd Japan 4.8 mbd 3.4 mbd 24

25 Vehicle Intensity (Selected Countries) * Including actual data and forecast results, , USA Vehicles / 1, people 1 1 India Thailand China Japan United Kingdom South Korea Vietnam 1 1 1, 1, 1, GDP per capita (US$, 2 Price) In China and India, the automobile holding rate will increase steadily with growing income. 25

26 Number of Vehicles (World) million vehicles 95 9% Increase from 27 to % 42% 32% N.America Europe Asia Others.95bil. 15% 36% 28% 21% 1. bil. inc. Others Europe N.America Asia 2.bil. 24% 26% 18% 32% World bil bil. (2.1-fold inc.) Asia 27 2 mil mil. (3.1-fold inc.) Approximately 4% of global automobile increase concentrates on Asia, with vehicle number increase in developed countries showing saturation trend. The share of automobile ownership (stock) in OECD will decline from 71% in 27 to 49% in 235; Non- OECD will increase from 29% to 51%. The stock in Non-OECD will outstrip OECD by

27 Number of Vehicles (Asia) million vehicles -2 27~235 年の増加量 % 19% 22% Japan China India Other Asia 3% 9% 22% 2mil. 39% 42mil. Other Asia Japan India China 62mil. 25% 12% 16% 48% China mil mil. (7.-fold inc.) India mil mil. (5.3-fold inc.) Considerable growth of vehicles is expected in China and India. In Japan, it grows only slightly. 27

28 Vehicle Ownership Rate vehicles per 1 people USA Japan OECD Korea China Ownership rate in % 74% 67% 58% 2% Non- OECD India World 14% 6.4% 14% 23% OECD 57% 74% China 3.3% 2% India 1.6% 6.4% Vehicle ownership rate will make progress mainly in Asian nations, the majority of which achieve high economic growth during Although the number of vehicles is projected to expand vigorously in China and India, the vehicle ownership rates will still remain well below developed countries; As a result, these countries have a large potential to grow still after

29 Biofuel Outlook in Asia and World (235) Mtoe % 3. Total share in primary oil demand Bio-diesel Bio-ethanol.9%.4%.5%.6.5.9% 1. 1.%.6% % 1. China India Japan Korea Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand World mil. toe mil. toe (4.4-fold inc.) Asia 27 2 mil. toe 235 年 25 mil. toe (13-fold inc.) Bio-fuel in the world is expected to grow to 16 million toe by 235 mainly in North America, Europe and Latin America. 25 million toe will be introduced by 235 in Asia. The share of bio-fuel in global liquid fuel in 235 will amount to 3%. In Asia, bio-ethanol will be introduced in China, India and Japan and other countries, while biodiesel will be introduced in Korea,Indonesia, Malaysia etc. 29

30 Oil Production Outlook 27- mbd OPEC Middle East OPEC Other OPEC Non-OPEC N.America L.America Europe(inc. Russia) Middle East Africa Asia China Malaysia Thailand Vietnam India OPEC mbd mbd (21 mbd inc.) Non-OPEC mbd mbd (11 mbd inc.) Share in world oil production growth from OPEC 67% (21mbd) Non-OPEC 33% (11mbd) World In Asian regions, oil production is projected to be flat. Approximately 7% of world oil production increase will be dominated by OPEC; OPEC share in the world oil production is likely to expand to 49% by 235. In leading oil production countries such as Middle East OPEC, oil exploration and development are constrained for the international oil company due to legal restriction of participation for IOC to the domestic oil development and more serious socio-economic situation in the Middle East. Unless the adequate upstream investment is not channeled into global oil production, 3 international oil market will become tightened for the future.

31 Oil Demand and Supply in Asia 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Mtoe 479 Demand Production Net Import Rate of dependence on import oil 53% % % % % % Net Oil Import mbd mbd (2.3-fold inc.) Net import in Asia will expand from 15 mb/d (731 Mtoe) to 35 mb/d (1,696 Mtoe). Since oil production in Asia (such as China, India and Indonesia) will exhibit marginal growth, the rate of dependence on imported oil will increase to 84% by

32 Net Oil Import in Asia Mtoe China Other Asia India Japan Korea Net oil import in China is likely to grow from 3.6 mbd in 27 to 14.8 in 235, nearly 4-fold increase. Net oil import in China will surpass that of Japan around 21. India will also outstrip Japan by

33 Dependency Rate on Imported Oil in Asia (Net import " " means net export) China 48% 66% 76% 79% Indonesia 23% 42% 61% 65% Malaysia 3% 19% 4% 44% Thailand 66% 9% 92% 93% India 69% 78% 84% 86% Vietnam 28% 5% 65% 72% Asia 67% 76% 82% 84% Urbanization, Industrialization and motorization will accelerate oil demand growth in Asia. Combined with limited growth of domestic oil production, net oil import in Asia will substantially expand towards

34 Gas Demand by Region (World) Mtoe 789 Increase from 27 to 235 4% 49 2% % 21% Asia N.America Europe Other 2% 4% 25% 15% 2 bil. toe 27% Other Europe N.America Asia 32% 15% 26% billion toe (2.8 trillion m 3 ) (2. bil. tonnes LNG) billion toe (5 trillion m 3 ) (3.6 bil. tonnes LNG) 1.8-fold increase (2.2 tril. m 3 inc.) (1.6 bil. tonnes LNG inc.) World gas demand is expected to increase from 2,8 bcm in 27 to 5, bcm in 235, 1.8-fold increase. Of incremental growth in global natural gas from 27 to 235, Non-OECD will dominate 83%; World gas demand will grow around Non-OECD countries. 34

35 Gas Demand by Region (Asia) Mtoe AAGR China India Japan Korea Taiwan Singapore % 13.2% 5.2% - 7.% % 5.7%.% 3.1% 3.8% 4.% Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam Other Asia 7.4% 1.7% % 4.4% 2.3% 6.9% 4.3% 7.6% 3.9% 6 China India Japan Korea 7% 4 Taiwan Indonesia Malaysia Philippines 14% Thailand Vietnam 2 Singapore Hong Kong Other Asia 22% Japan India 28% 9% China 16% billion toe (42 billion m 3 ) (.31 bil. tonnes LNG) billion toe (1.29 trillion m 3 ) (.95 bil. tonnes LNG) 3.1-fold increase (88 bil. m 3 inc.) (64mil. tonnes LNG inc.) Gas demand in China will considerably increase mainly due to increasing demand for power generation, municipal gas use and its environmental premium. India also represents approximately 5-fold increase. 35

36 LNG Demand Outlook (World) 6 million tonnes LNG Asia Europe L.America N.America World LNG demand will expand from 167 million ton in 28 to 472 million ton in 235, achieving 2.8-fold growth. LNG demand in Asia-pacific region continues to be dominant throughout 235. Global LNG demand and supply are forecast to be balanced to 235. If the development of future LNG project is stagnated, world LNG market will become tightened after 21; The development of LNG project is major challenge in order to ensure world LNG market. 36

37 Coal Demand by Region (World) Mtoe Increase from 27 to % % -8% 11% Asia N.America Europe Other 6% 17% 18% 58% 1.3 bil. toe Other Europe N.America Asia 8% 1% 15% 67% billion toe (4.6 billion tce) billion toe (6.4 billion tce*) 1.4-fold increase (1.8 billion tce inc.) *Tons of coal equivalent % of global coal demand increase is derived from Asia, and the share of Asia in total coal demand eventually expands to 67%. Non-OECD is responsible for 96% of the increase in world coal demand. 35% of the increase in global CO2 emissions from 27 to 235 is from coal combustion in Asian region; In order to address global warming problem, environmentally compatible coal use is quite important agenda in Asia. 37

38 Coal Demand by Region (Asia) Mtoe AAGR China India Japan Korea Taiwan Singapore % 5.9% 2.5% 5.4% 9.2% 3.9% % 3.4% -.6% 1.2% 1.% - Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam Other Asia 22.1% 22.1% 11.1% 13.5% 5.6% -.6% 3.9% 4.6% 5.6% 4.7% 6.3% 3.5% China Japan Taiwan Malaysia Thailand Singapore Other Asia India Korea Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Hong Kong 6% 13% Japan India China 3% 2% 61% billion toe (2.6 billion tce) billion toe (4.3 billion tce) 1.7-fold increase (1.7 bil. tce inc.) 5 7% Coal will be consumed in the power sector in order to meet growing electricity requirements, particularly in China and India, both of which have abundant availability of domestic reserves 38

39 Increase in Fossil Fuel Demand by Sector 1 Increase by sector, Oil Gas Coal Building Transport Industry Power Gen. Building Industry Power Gen Industry 5 7 World Asia World Asia World Asia Majority of oil will be used for transportation, while gas and coal will be consumed mainly for power generation. 39

40 Electricity Demand (Asia) AAGR(%) Electricity demand China India Korea Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Philippines Asia (exc. Japan) Japan OECD Non-OECD World Total Final Energy Demand Asia 27 6,7TWh ,5TWh (2.5-fold inc.) China / India 3,3TWh 7,7TWh TWh 3,5TWh (2.3-fold inc.) (4.4-fold inc.) Electricity demand in Asia will increase rapidly by sophistication of energy utilization driven by the improvement of life style. 4

41 Power Generation Mix by Fuel (World) 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, TWh AAGR Total 3.3% 2.3% Coal 3.7% 2.2% Oil -1.5%.1% Gas 5.4% 3.2% Share: Coal-fired 42% 4% Gas-fired 21% 26% Hydro 16% 13% Nuclear 14% 12% Other Renewables 2.5% 6.5% Oil-fired % 3.% Coal-fired power generation still remains dominant power supply option by 235. Natural gas-fired power generation is projected to increase significantly worldwide at the highest rate among fossil fuels. Renewables excluding hydro will expand its share in power generation mix to 6.5% by 235 from 2.5% in 27. The CO2 emissions from coal-fired power generation currently dominates about 3% of global CO2 emissions. CO2 emissions from coal-fired generation will increase from 8.2 Gt-CO2 in 27 to 12.6 Gt-CO2 in 235. Clean 41 coal technology (CCT) is expected to play an important role in addressing GHG issues.

42 Power Generation Mix by Fuel (Asia) 1, TWh 9, 8, 7, 6, Total Coal Oil % 1.1% -.9% AAGR % 3.1%.5% Coal-fired 6% 57% Share: , Gas 8.6% 4.3% 4, 3, 2, 1, Other renewables 1.2% 4.3% Oil-fired 5.6% 2.6% Hydro 12% 9.3% Gas-fired 13% 17% Nuclear 8% 1% The share of coal use in Asia will remain larger than 5%, reflecting abundant resources and the economic advantages. Gas will show a growing trend, the share of which eventually expands to 17% by 235.The share of nuclear power generation will increase from 8% to 1%; Nuclear plays a important roll in power generation mix. The CO2 emissions from coal-fired power generation currently dominates about 3% of global CO2 emissions. CO2 emissions from coal-fired generation in Asia will expand by 3.8 Gt-CO2 from 4.1 Gt-CO2 in 27 to 7.9 Gt- CO2 in 235, this growth being about 3% of global CO2 emissions increase. Clean coal technology (CCT) 42 is expected to play an important role in addressing GHG issues.

43 Power Generation Mix by Fuel (World and Asia) 6 % World 7 % Asia 5 4 Coal-fired 4% 6 5 Oil-fired Coal-fired 57% 4 3 Hydro Gas-fired 26% Other Renewables Oil-fired Nuclear 13% 12% 1 Hydro 2 6.5% 3.% Nuclear Other Renewables Gas-fired 17% 1% 9.3% 4.3% 2.6% Coal-fired power plant is indispensable power supply option in both world and Asia with its economic advantages and the stable availability of its input fuel. 43

44 Photovoltaic Wind Power (World) Photovoltaic (PV) GW Asia OECD Europe N.America Wind Power GW Oceania 59 Asia OECD Europe N.America Photovoltaic (PV) Asia World GW GW (16-fold inc.) World GW GW (5-fold inc.) 28 3 GW GW (29-fold inc.) Wind Power Asia GW GW (5-fold inc.) Renewables are expected to expand due to technological advancement and supportive political measures such as FIT and subsidization. World PV capacity is likely to grow to 242GW by 235 and world wind power capacity will boost to 62 GW. The share of power generation from wind and PV together in total global power generation will grow from.9% in 27 to 3.6% in

45 Nuclear Power Generation Capacity (World) GW Increase in Asia 19 N.America -5 GW 46 OECD Europe Non- OECD Europe 11% 35% 31% 22% 21 GW Non-OECD Europe OECD Europe N.America Asia World Asia 15% 22% 23% 37% Middle Eats & Africa 1% L.America 1% World GW GW (21GW increase) Asia GW GW (137GW increase) Nuclear capacity is projected to grow from 392GW in 27 to 62GW in 235 (21 GW growth). The largest increase in the nuclear capacity is expected in Asia (137GW growth). Asian countries will develop nuclear energy most actively and channel the largest investment into nuclear power requirement. 45

46 Nuclear Power Capacity in Asia (GW) China Japan Taiwan Korea ASEAN 5 India Asia Currently in Asia, India, Pakistan, China, Korea and Japan install nuclear power plant. Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand are considering to newly build nuclear power plant. The share of nuclear power in total power generation mix in 235 is 7% in China and 7% in India. 46

47 Power Generation Capacity (World and Asia) World Asia World GW 4.5 TW 5.7 TW 7. TW 7.7 TW Gas Coal Biomass Wind Hydro PV 4 3 Nuclear2 Oil 1 GW 1.4 TW 2.1 TW 2.7 TW 3. TW Gas Coal Biomass Wind PV Hydro Nuclear Oil TW TW (1.7-fold inc.) Asia TW TW (2.3-fold inc.) World power generation capacity is projected to grow from 4.5TW in 27 to 7.7TW in 235 (3.2 TW growth). The largest increase in world power generation capacity is expected in Asia (1.6TW growth, 5% of world capacity increase). 47

48 CO 2 Emission by Region (World) Gt-CO2 Increase in 27~ % 3%.4 1 4% % Asia N.America Europe Other 28.8Gt 18% 23% 22% 37% Gt 12.7Gt Other Europe N.America Asia Gt 21% 17% 16% 46% World Gt Gt (1.4-fold inc.) Asia Gt Gt (1.8-fold inc.) Increase in Asia will account for 66%, with North America and Europe together responsible for only 4%. 48

49 CO 2 Emissions (World) 12, Mt-CO 2 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Other 34% Share of CO 2 (27) India 5% China 21% USA 21% W.Europ e 14% Japan 4% Share of CO 2 (235) Share of Cumulative Emissions from 19~235 Other 35% India 4% China 15% Other 41% USA 23% India 8% W.Europe 19% Japan 4% USA 15% China 24% W.Europ e 1% Japan 2% Actual Forecast China USA Western Europe India Japan Cumulative CO 2 emissions from 199 of India will outstrip that of Japan by 23 49

50 CO 2 Emission by Region (Asia) Gt-CO2 4 Increase in 27~ % 24%.2 34% China India Japan Other Asia Gt 2% 11% 13% 56% Gt Other Asia Japan India China Gt 26% 5% 18% 51% China 27 6.Gt Gt (1.6-fold inc.) India Gt Gt (2.4-fold inc.) CO 2 emissions of China and India will steadily increase driven by coal consumption, the share accounting for 7% together in Asia. 5

51 Technologically Advanced Scenario (Tech. Adv. Scenario) 51

52 Assumptions on Technologically Advanced Scenario Countries all over the world more strengthen the numerous measures contributing to ensuring energy security and mitigating global warming issues. Combined with that, technological development and international transfer of technology will be promoted and advanced technology internationally becomes commercially available as a result. Regulation, National target, SSL etc. Carbon tax, Emissions Trading, RPS, Subsidization FIT Efficiency Standard, Automobile Fuel Efficiency Standard, Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Energy Efficiency Labeling, National Target etc. Promotion of R&D, International Cooperation Encouragement of Investment for R&D, International Cooperation on Energy Efficient Technology, Support on Establishment of Efficiency Standard Demand Side Technology Industry Best available technology on industrial process such as steel making, cement, paper, oil refinery etc. become internationally penetrated Transport Clean energy vehicles (high fuel efficient vehicle, Hybrid vehicle, Plug-in hybrid vehicle, Electric vehicle, Fuel cell vehicle) globally expand. Building Efficient electric appliance (Refrigerator, TV etc.), High efficient water-heating system (heatpump etc.), Efficient air conditioning system, Efficient lighting, Strengthening heating insulation Supply Side Technology Renewable More expansion of Wind, PV, CSP, Biomass power generation, Bio-fuel Nuclear Acceleration of more nuclear power plant, Enhancement of operating ratio High Efficient Fossil-fired Power Plant More expansion of Coal-fired power plant (USC, IGCC, IGFC), Natural gas MACC CCS Introduction in power generation (coalfired, gas-fired) and industrial sector 52

53 Assumptions on Tech. Adv. Scenario (World, 235) kw (1 1 kw) Reference Further expansion of nuclear and renewables is likely to be realized on the basis of global electricity demand increase. Biofuel will more boost if cellulosic biofuel, which is not competitive with food production and land use, becomes commercially viable. Industry sector, building sector and transport sector respectively achieves 3Mtoe(9% saving), 5 Mtoe (14% saving) and 4 Mtoe (14% saving) of energy saving in 235 compared with reference scenario. Average efficiency of fossil fuel-fired power generation reach 47% at 235 in Tech. Adv. Scenario while that in reference scenario shows 42% Tech. Adv. (1 Mtoe) Nuclear PV CSP Wind Bio. Gen. Biofuel Non-fossil fuel (Mtoe) 27 1,3 Mtoe 235 Reference Tech. Adv. 2,5 Mtoe 3, Mtoe (2-fold inc) (2.3-fold inc) Share of non-fossil fuel 27 12% 235 Reference Tech. Adv. 15% 21% 53

54 Automobile Ownership (World) Global ownership of hybrid vehicles (HEV) in 235 expands to 39 millions in Reference scenario and 54 millions in Tech. Adv. Scenario. Plug-in hybrid vehicles (Plug-in HV) in 235 will grow to 5 millions in Reference scenario and 2 millions in Tech. Adv. Scenario. Electric vehicles (EV) in 235 will boost to 14 millions in Tech. Adv. Scenario. Reference Tech. Adv. 2 million vehicles 2 million vehicles 18 Plug-in HV 18 Plug-in HV 16 FCV 16 FCV 14 EV 14 EV 12 CNG 12 CNG ICE(LPG) HEV(Diesel) ICE(Diesel) HEV(Gasoline) ICE(Gasoline) ICE(LPG) HEV(Diesel) ICE(Diesel) HEV(Gasoline) ICE(Gasoline) 54

55 Outlook on Automobile (World) 1% Breakdown of Automobile Stock (World) 8% 6% 4% 2% % 2% 98% 3% 2% 75% Reference 3% % 1% 28% 52% Tech. Adv. 2% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Breakdown of Annual Sales (World) 3% 97% 6% 28% 63% Reference 3% % 14% 31% 41% Tech. Adv. Electric Vehicle Fuel Cell Vehicle 2% Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle Hybrid Vehicle Compressed Gas ICE (Gasoline Diesel) Share of clean energy vehicle on total stock (235) Reference 23 % Tech. Adv. 46 % Share of clean energy vehicle in annual sales (235) Reference 34 % Tech. Adv. 57 % In Tech. Adv. Scenario, approximately 5% of total stock in 235 is composed of clean energy vehicle. 55

56 Fuel Efficiency of Passenger Vehicle (World) 3 Fuel Efficiency on Annual Sales basis km/l 2 km/l Fuel Efficiency on Stock basis 25 41%up 24 31%up Reference Tech. Adv. Reference Tech. Adv Fuel efficiency of passenger stock at 235 in Tech. Adv. Scenario exhibit 31% improvement in comparison with Reference Scenario. 56

57 Clean Coal Technology (CCT): Power Generation Efficiency of Coal-fired Power Plant Power Generation Efficiency of Coal-fired Power Plant *(Reference) Power Generation Efficiency % OECD * On Stock Basis World Non-OECD In Tech. Adv. Scenario, additional 1. Gt-CO2 will be reduced due to the enhancement of power generation efficiency compared with Reference Scenario Breakdown of coal-fired power plant in 235(World) Reference: - SC:7% -USC/IGCC: 3% Tech. Adv.: - SC:1% -A-USC/IGCC/IGFC: 9% Stock-based Efficiency of Coal-fired Power Plant (World) % 235 Reference Tech.Adv. 41 % 45 % (7points up) (11points up) Advanced Coal-fired Plant Power 発電効率 Generation (%) Efficiency (%) Conventional 石炭火力超々臨界 USCl IGCC IGFC ( 現状 Coal) 57

58 Clean Coal Technology (CCT): CO 2 Capture & Storage (CCS) IEEJ: December Gt-CO 2 CCS will be introduced after 22 in coal-fired, gas-fired power genetation and industrial sector In industrial sector, 1% of its total emissions will be captured and stored by Industry Power Generation Cumulative captured and stored CO2 from 22 to 235 amounts to 14 Gt- CO2.Theoretical potential of CCS in geological structure is estimated to 1 trillion ton, and that of depleted gas field, oil field and coal field, 1 trillion ton, which is sufficient to accommodate the captured CO2 in Tech. Adv. Scenario. 58

59 Carbon Intensity of Electricity (CO 2 Emissions per kwh) g-co 2 /kwh Tech. Adv. Japan(27)* Japan(1998)** Growth of Nuclear Gas-fired World Reference g-co 2 /kwh Tech. Adv. Asia Reference *42g-CO2/kWh **35g-CO2/kWh In Tech. Adv. Scenario, CO2 emissions per kwh represents dramatic reduction due to the further expansion of nuclear, renewable and improvement of efficiency of fossil-fired power generation. 59

60 Primary Energy Demand (World) 18, 15, 12, Mtoe Energy Saving in 235 OECD 691 Non- OECD 1614 Asia ,78 Reference 13,526 12,673 15,727 OECD Non-OECD 14,25 16,877 14,572 2,3 Mtoe ( 14% ) OECD 7 Mtoe (3% of total saving) 9, 7,993 1,493 Tech. Adv. Non-OECD 1,6 Mtoe (7% of total saving) 6, 6, Asia 1,3Mtoe (58% of total saving) In 235, world total primary energy demand in Tech. Adv. Scenario decreases by 2,3 Mtoe in comparison with Reference Scenario. 2,3 Mtoe is approximately 4 times as much as TPES of Japan. TPES saving of Non-OECD in 235 is almost double as large as that of OECD. The saving potential in Asia is particularly immense amount. 6

61 Primary Energy Demand (Asia) 8, 6, 4, 2, 1,51 Mtoe Energy Saving in 235 China India Other 794 1, Asia 248 3,178 3,554 Reference 5,17 4,68 6,359 5,452 Tech. Adv. 7,84 5, China India Others 1,3Mtoe ( 19%) China 79 Mtoe (59% of saving in Asia) India 3 Mtoe (22% of saving in Asia) Other Asia 25 Mtoe (19% of saving in Asia) In 235, TPES of Asia in Tech. Adv. Scenario decreases by 1,3 Mtoe in comparison with Reference Scenario. 1,3 Mtoe is approximately twice as much as TPES of Japan. The saving potential in China and India is quite large. 61

62 Primary Energy Demand (World) Coal demand is most susceptible to technological advancement such as clean coal technology, showing 35% reduction compared with Reference scenario. Due to the substantial penetration of clean energy vehicles, global oil demand will almost peak out around 23. Peak oil demand will likely arise before Peak oil supply encouraged by innovative automobile technology. 7, 石油換算百万トン Mtoe 6, 5, * Solid line: Reference Scenario Dotted line: Tech. Adv. Scenario Oil Peak Oil Demand 4, Gas 3, Coal 2, 1, Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro

63 Oil Demand (World) In Reference Scenario, 6% of total oil demand growth from 27 to 235 is attributable to the demand increase in transport sector. In Tech. Adv. Scenario, oil demand growth in transport sector is heavily constrained and peak out around , Mtoe Reference Tech. Adv 6, Mtoe 27~235 increase 27~235 Increase 5, Mtoe inc. 2,794 5, Mtoe inc. 2,641 4, 3, 2, Transport Others 2,249 1,829 Others 8 Mtoe inc. 2,66 4, 3, 2, Transport Others 2,249 Others 2 Mtoe inc. 1,829 2,67 Oil demand in transport sector peak out in 232 1, Transport 1, Transport

64 Oil Demand of Transport Sector (Selected Region) Global oil demand growth is likely to be limited by massive deployment of clean energy vehicles. 2,5 2, 石油換算 1 万トン Mtoe - Solid line: Reference - Dotted line: Tech. Adv. 1,829 (38 mbd) 2,66 (54 mbd) Peak out in 232 2,67 (43 mbd) 1,5 1, 5 World OECD Non-OECD Asia China 1,181 (25 mbd) 648 (14 mbd) 389 (8 mbd) 134 (3 mbd) (229) Peak out in ,388 (29 mbd) 1,218 (25 mbd) 1,75 (22 mbd) 992 (21 mbd) 869 (18mbd) 651 (14 mbd) 439 (9mbd) 298 (6 mbd) 64

65 Reference and Tech. Adv. Scenario in 235 (World) (1 million toe) 14% % 45 13% % Difference between Reference and Tech. Adv. 3% Tech. Adv. Reference 23% % 4 26% TPES Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Renewables CO2 Coal demand shows notable difference between Reference and Tech. Adv. scenario, due to the elaborate deployment of clean coal technology in Tech. Adv. Scenario. Global oil demand at 235 is 113 mb/d in Reference scenario and 98 mb/d in Tech. Adv. Scenario. 65

66 Primary Energy Mix 2, 15, 1, 5, Mtoe Renewables 3% 6% 23% 37% 29% Nuclear 2% World Asia 5% 7% Gas 27% Oil 32% Coal 27% Reference Hydro 3% % 1% 3% 27% 32% 2% Tech. Adv. Even at 235 in Tech. Adv. scenario, fossil fuel dominates about 8% of TPES in both Asia and the world and will play an important role. 8, 6, 4, 2, Mtoe Renewables 1% 2% 11% 4% 31% 52% Nuclear 4% 6% Gas 16% Oil 29% Coal 43% Reference Hydro 2% % 1% 3% 17% 29% 34% Tech. Adv. Share of Non-fossil fuel in TPES (World) % 235 Reference Tech.Adv. 15 % 21 % (3points up) (9points up) Share of Non-fossil fuel in TPES (Asia) 27 7 % 235 Reference Tech.Adv. 12 % 19 % (5points up)(12points up) 66

67 CO 2 Emissions in Tech. Adv. Scenario (World) Gt-CO 2 CO 2 mitigation in 235 OECD 4 Non- OECD 8 Asia Reference OECD Non-OECD Tech. Adv. World total mitigation 123Gt ( 3%) 4.2 Gt (34%of world mitigation) 8.1 Gt (66% of world mitigation) Asia 6.8Gt (55% of world mitigation) World CO2 emissions in Tech.Adv. Scenario will peak out in 226 CO 2 mitigation of Non-OECD in 235 is almost double as large as that of OECD. The saving potential in Asia shows particularly massive amount. Technology transfer and swift deployment of advanced technology in Asia is indispensable in order to address global warming problem. 67

68 CO 2 Mitigation by Technology (World) Gt-CO 2 World CO2 emissions in Tech.Adv. Scenario will peak out in Reference Tech. Adv Energy Saving (46%) Bio-fuel (4%) PV, Wind etc. (6%) Nuclear (1%) Fuel Switching (12%) CCS (21%) 123Gt ( 3%) Energy Saving 46% Fuel Switching 32% CCS 21% Gt Share Energy Saving 6 46 Bio-fuel 4 PV, Wind etc. 1 6 Nuclear 1 1 Fuel Switching 1 12 CCS 3 21 Total 12 1 Multiple technological options, such as energy saving, enhancement of power generation efficiency, renewables, nuclear, fuel-switching and CCS together greatly contribute to massive CO2 mitigation. 68

69 CO 2 Emissions in Tech. Adv. Scenario (Asia) Gt-CO2 CO 2 mitigation in 235 China India Other Asia Reference Tech. Adv. Asian CO2 emissions in Tech.Adv. Scenario will peak out in China India Others 12 Asian total mitigation 68Gt ( 36%) China 4.1 Gt (59%of Asian mitigation) India 1.5 Gt (21%of Asian mitigation) Other Asia 1.4 Gt (2% of Asian mitigation) CO 2 mitigation potential in China and India is quite large. CO 2 reduction in China dominates about 6% of Asian mitigation potential. 69

70 CO 2 Mitigation by Technology (Asia) Gt-CO 2 17 Reference Tech. Adv Energy Saving (53%) Bio-fuel (2%) PV, Wind etc. (7%) Nuclear (1%) Fuel Switching (12%) CCS (16%) Energy Saving 53% Fuel Switching 31% CCS 16% 8 4 Asian CO2 emissions in Tech.Adv. Scenario will peak out in Gt ( 36%) Gt Share Energy Saving Bio-fuel.1 2 PV, Wind etc..5 7 Nuclear.7 1 Fuel Switching.8 12 CCS Total Aggressive development and deployment of advanced technology in Asia enables to considerably reduce CO2 emissions and realize its peak-out by 23. 7

71 CO 2 Emissions by Sector (World) Gt-CO % 16% 22% 17% 32% % 11% 24% 15% 39% 339 1% 11% 23% 15% 4% 35 11% 12% 24% 17% 36% 415 9% 12% 22% 14% 43% % 15% 26% 17% 3% Other Building Transport Industry Power Sector Difference between Reference and Tech. Adv.(235) Power Sector Industry 9 Transport 17 Building Reference Tech. Adv. Reference Tech. Adv. Others 4 2 Actual Actual Immense CO 2 mitigation potential is expected in power sector and transport sector 71

72 CO 2 Emissions in Tech. Adv. Scenario (OECD, Non-OECD) Gt-CO Reference Gt Share Energy Saving Bio-fuel.3 8 PV, Wind etc..3 7 Nuclear.5 12 Fuel Switching.4 1 CCS Total OECD Tech. Adv Total 4.2Gt Energy Saving (36%) Bio-fuel(8%) PV, Wind etc. (7%) Nuclear (12%) Fuel Switching (1%) CCS(26%) Gt-CO 2 Gt Share Energy Saving Bio-fuel.1 2 PV, Wind etc..4 5 Nuclear.7 9 Fuel Switching CCS Total Non-OECD Reference Tech. Adv Total 8.1Gt Energy Saving (5%) Bio-fuel (2%) PV, Wind etc. (5%) Nuclear (9%) Fuel Sw itching (16%) CCS(19%) CO2 emissions of Non-OECD in Tech.Adv. Scenario will peak out in 23. Energy saving of Non-OECD in 235 shows quite a large mitigation potential, 4.1 Gt-CO2 (around 3% of world total CO2 mitigation). Supportive measures concerning technology transfer and establishment of efficiency standards is important to realize substantial CO2 reduction as well as ensure energy security. 72

73 CO 2 Emissions (OECD/Non-OECD) Increase from 27 to 22 (Reference) CO 2 Growth (from 199 level) Non-OECD 途上国 Non-OECD 先進国 実績 Actual 49 (1 million ton) 3 OECD 先進国 Non-OECD 途上国 実績 Actual レファレンス Reference 技術進展 Tech. Adv. レファレンス Reference 技術進展 Tech. Adv. 22 Reference Tech. Adv. World + 6% + 44% OECD + 19% + 7% Non-OECD World OECD Non-OECD + 18% + 86% 235 Reference Tech. Adv. + 97% + 38% + 24% 14% + 182% + 97% *Include CO2 emissions from bunker fuel demand In Tech. Adv. Scenario, CO2 emissions of OECD show 7% larger and that of Non-OECD represents 14% smaller than its 199 emissions level. 73

74 Global CO 2 Emissions Path by 25 Acceleration of the pace of mitigation after 235 is required in order to achieve halving global CO2 emissions by 25. Gt-CO 2 45 GHG CO2 in 25 Global temp. Peak-out concentration (From 2) rise 4 445~ 2~ 85% ~ 2. ~ Reference Ⅰ 35 49ppm 215 5% ~ 2~ 6% ~ 2.4 ~ 3 Ⅱ 535ppm 22 3% Tech. Adv. 535~ 21~ 3% ~ 2.8 ~ Ⅲ 59ppm 23 +5% % reduction Peak-out in 59~ 22 ~ +1% ~ 3.2 ~ from Ⅳ 15 71ppm 26 +6% 4. 71~ 25 ~ +25% ~ 4. ~ Ⅴ 1 85% reduction 855ppm % 4.9 from 2 855~ 26 ~ +9% ~ 4.9 ~ 5 Ⅵ 113ppm % 6.1 *IPCC 4th Report <Technological Strategy towards 235> Energy Efficiency(Industry Building Transport) Nuclear PV WInd Bio-fuel etc. Environmentally compatibe use of fossil-fuel (IGCC, CCS) Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle <Technological Strategy towards 25> Development of Innovative Technology (FBR, SPS, Innovative industrial Process, Geoengineering) Distributed energy system Low Carbon Society Hydrogen Society