Energy Efficiency & the Energy Future in ASEAN Amit Bando, Executive Director, IPEEC Bangkok, Thailand 5 June 2013

Transcription

1 Energy Efficiency & the Energy Future in ASEAN Amit Bando, Executive Director, IPEEC Bangkok, Thailand 5 June 2013

2 1. What is IPEEC? 1

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4 3 IPEEC is a high level international forum Provides global leadership on energy efficiency by identifying and facilitating government implementation of policies and programs that yield high energy-efficiency gains. Aims to promote information exchange on best practices and facilitate initiatives to improve energy efficiency. Formally established in 2009 at the G8 summit in L'Aquila, Italy and resulting from the Heiligendamm Dialogue Process.

5 IPEEC is an Autonomous Entity Members account for over 80% of world GDP and energy use. EU United Kingdom France Canada USA Mexico Brazil South Africa Germany Italy Russia Japan Republic of Korea China India Australia IPEEC was established in 2009 at the G8 summit in Italy The IPEEC Secretariat is located in Paris, France 4

6 IPEEC - guiding principles Improving energy saving and energy efficiency is one of the quickest, greenest, and most cost-effective ways to address energy security and climate change as well as to ensure sustainable economic growth All countries, both developed and developing, share common interests in improving their energy efficiency performance There is abundant potential for international cooperation among them Will contribute to improvement of energy efficiency at the global level Developed countries need to play an important role in cooperation with developing countries Accelerating dissemination and transfer of best practices, efficient technologies and capacity building in developing countries 5

7 Transition Technologies, Products and Services Follow Parallel Journeys Technology journey Basic research Applied research Early demonstration Full demonstration Marketed product Warranted product Proof of... Principle Concept Validity Viability Value Quality Company journey Individual innovators Small group: start-up/ unit in a company Medium-size operation Large scale operation Own capital Venture capital Revenues Prof i t Market journey Demonstration & sample distribution Early adopters & niches Rational economic purchase Technology & market evaluation Awareness Positive potential Market pull Feedback Regulation journey General regulation General regulation Specific regulation General regulation General regulation Negative often unintended Neutral Positive Positive Neutral or positive 6

8 2. ASEAN s Energy Challenges 7

9 A Context 8

10 Urbanization Between , urban population overtook the rural population rising from 49% to 51% Urban population, Asia-Pacific subregions, 1990 and 2010 By 2030, a majority or 2.7 billion people will live in cities and towns equivalent to adding a new town of 137,000 people every day for next 21 years! In the last two decades the Asia- Pacific urban proportion has risen by 29% more than any other region Source: Statistical Yearbook for Asia and the Pacific 2011, UNESCAP 9

11 Energy Intensity Today, Asia covers the lion s share of the world s primary energy consumption Between 2007 and 2030, the region is projected to account for 45-50% of the increase in world primary energy demand Global Primary Energy Intensity (2009) Non-OECD Asian nations will lead industrial energy demand by an average of 2.3 to 2.6% per year projected annual growth in OECD nations of 0.5% / year 10

12 Energy Access Worldwide, 1.4 billion do not have access to electricity Almost 800 million in Asia-Pacific By 2030, 1.2 billion people globally are expected to remain without electricity most of them in sub-saharan Africa and South Asia Worldwide, 2.7 billion people rely on traditional use of biomass for cooking Almost 2 billion in Asia-Pacific In Asia-Pacific, the number of people using biomass is likely to decrease from the current billion to billion Global energy needs are estimated to grow > 50% developing countries contributing to nearly ¾th of this increase To meet the target of achieving universal access to modern energy services by 2030, investments of US$ 756 billion (or US$ 36 billion per year) is needed (Source: Energy Plus Report, UN, 2012) 11

13 Mtoe ASEAN Energy Production Other renewables Hydro Geothermal Coal Gas Biomass Oil Oil & gas sources in Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar; Thailand and Vietnam; Coal in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam. Source: IEA, National University of Singapore 12

14 Energy Demand Exceeds Energy Production ASEAN Primary Energy Demand (Mtoe) Increasingly, ASEAN will have to rely on energy imports; Coal s importance in the ASEAN energy mix is growing. Source: ASEAN Center for Energy,

15 Main Energy Challenges in the Region Energy Security: Coal use will increase, Energy consumption in the transport sector is expected to rise from 87 Mtoe in 2007 to 300 Mtoe in Energy Poverty: Out of the 567 million people living in the ASEAN region, million do not have any access to electricity. For example, only 10% of rural Myanmar has access to electricity. Energy efficiency (EE): EE remains low in most sectors. Source: National University of Singapore,

16 B Energy Efficiency Trends in the Asia Pacific Region 15

17 Energy Intensity Trends Global energy intensity has decreased by 1.4% p.a. since 1990 Largest reductions found in the regions with the highest energy intensities (China, CIS and India) Industry and power generation accounted for almost ½ of that reduction (about 30% and 15%, respectively) Per capita energy consumption to 2030 is likely to grow at about the same rate as in (0.7% p.a.) Energy per unit of GDP continues to improve globally, and at an accelerating rate This acceleration is important as restrains the overall growth of primary energy. Ex: During the 11 th Five Year Plan in China, through various EE initiatives, energy consumption grew at an annual average of 6.6% compared to average annual growth rate of 11.2% for the national economy

18 Energy Efficiency Regulatory Trends Globally BUILDINGS A EU Directive on the energy performance of buildings (2009) harmonised standards for new buildings, making mandatory buildings certificates for the sale or rent of dwellings Regions with efficiency standards on new buildings In most countries, standards exist for both dwellings and service sector buildings, except in Africa and in Asia where most often standards only apply to non-residential buildings Source: WEC Survey, 2010

19 Energy Efficiency Regulatory Trends Globally - 2 LABELLING AND APPLIANCE STANDARDS EU has mandatory labelling for several electrical appliances In OECD Asia and America, about 70% of the countries have implemented labels for refrigerators In Africa, the Middle East and non-oecd Asia, labels are not widespread: they exist for refrigerators in less than 20% Source: WEC Survey,

20 Energy Efficiency Market Penetration Energy efficiency firms attracted nearly $1.1 billion in venture capital in 2010, almost double that of 2007.* LIGHTING: LED is the fastest growing market at a CAGR of 14.9% from 2011 to 2016 Asia will witness the highest growth (CAGR of 16.6%) BUILDINGS: EE market $87.0bn in 2012 GREEN IT: Cloud computing revenue to continue worldwide growth at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.8% Market increase: US$46 billion (2009) to US$210.3 billion (2015) EE measures could drive total data center energy expenditures down from $23.3 billion in 2010 to $16.0 billion in 2020 (28% reduction in GHG emissions from 2010 levels) 19

21 Energy Efficiency Financing Trends Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy deal value rose 40% year on year in 2011 The rise was fuelled by a big increase in US$1bn plus deals - almost all from a wave of solar, EE and wind power deals The total number of 2011 deals dipped 6% year on year but still high at 570 Rebounded in 2010 off the 2009 low of 319 Increased deal value is not just coming from the largest deals Median deal value rose 25% year on year, from US$28.1m to US$35.2m Asia-Pacific targets accounted for US$4.6bn but Asia Pacific buyers completed US$9.4bn of transactions in 2011 Just under half of this bidder total was accounted for by the two big European purchases by Toshiba and China National Bluestar.

22 Energy Efficiency Financing Trends Asia Pacific deals by sector Source: Final Renewables Deals 2012 Outlook 2011 Review, PwC. 21

23 ESCOs The ESCO industry in Asia Pacific is poised to grow From $3.0 billion in annual revenue in 2009 to $18.5 billion by % increase from 2010 levels Example: Despite not even being operational until 1998, annual revenues for China s ESCO industry to reach $17 billion by 2015, increasing its share of the APAC regional market to over 90% (Source: Pike Research).

24 3. Energy Efficiency: Opportunities & Challenges 23

25 Energy Saving Potential in the Region Based on a Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario & the Alternative Policy Scenario (APS) Source: 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook,

26 EE Targets in the ASEAN Region For the region: 15% reduction in energy intensity ( ) Brunei, Indonesia, Singapore & Thailand: 20% energy intensity reduction (2005 to , depending on the country) ASEAN Primary Energy Intensity Source: ASEAN Center for Energy,

27 Main Barriers to EE Many regional organizations have overlapping mandates; Target of decreasing energy intensity by 8% (by 2015) for the ASEAN region is not allocated by country or sector; The vertical linkages in decision making need improvement: top level decision makers are hard to reach; EE action plans are not thoroughly developed - hinders their timely implementation; Overall lack of training, capacity & international expertise; EE related data are lacking; regional information clearing house could be established; Source: WEACT Workshop,

28 Energy Efficiency Planning in Asia-Pacific Strengths Increases sustainability Increases energy security Creates of market leader Increases energy access Opportunities Increased value and lifespan Investment relief (tax) Market for new innovations Socio-economic co-benefits Competitive advantage Weaknesses Cost of investments Lack of skilled personnel Lack of consumer awareness on need for Energy Efficiency Weak in-country R & D Threats Rebound effect (effort does not reduce energy consumption as planned) Fall in energy prices leading to expensive conservation

29 Strategies to Promote EE Strategy Develop EE Policies & Build Capacity Raise awareness & disseminate information Promote best practices Facilitate EE Financing Action 1. Develop clear policies and plans to promote EE. 2. Set national targets & develop plans to monitor the results. 3. Strengthen human capacity and enhance infrastructure. 1. Develop and run EE campaigns to raise awareness. 2. Disseminate information using all appropriate medias (including energy labels). 3. Demonstrate best energy practices and successful cases, 1. Develop regulation &/or provide incentives to encourage best practices in facilities. 2. Build up capacity for all stakeholders. 1. Develop mechanisms to enhance financing for EE 2. Increase the involvement of national & international financial institutions. Source: WEACT Workshop,

30 Energy Efficiency: More Than Just Energy Savings Government Action to Promote Energy Efficiency Sustainable Development: Enhanced Energy Access Climate Change Mitigation: Reduced GHG Emissions Energy Security: Reducing Energy Use Low Carbon Economy Improved air quality Jobs created Lower energy cost 29

31 5. Next Steps? 30

32 Moving Forward Governments need to commit by: Providing an overarching policy framework combining mandatory and voluntary policies and strengthening enforcement Promoting greater awareness of EE Playing an essential role as integrator of the value chain Establishing funding mechanisms to jump-start EE financing Particularly in the short term Institutionalizing standard-selling & enhancing professionalism within the industry by creating proper accreditation & certification standards Publicizing accurate information about EE product suppliers and ESCOs Removing/rationalizing other barriers that distort markets Such as energy subsidies 31

33 Moving Forward - 2 And Businesses need to Move towards an integrated value chain approach where suppliers extend their service portfolio to offer complete solutions (auditing, installation, maintenance and financing solutions) Develop innovative financing vehicles for EE projects by collaborating with financial institutions & develop expertise in EE project financing Increase awareness of EE and enhance industry professionalism Adopt a more active role in promoting EE and in professionalizing the industry from within by setting standards and benchmarks energy suppliers and ESCOs can lead effort Bring in the best practices from experiences in other countries multinationals can act as catalysts 32

34 Areas where International Expertise can Help Financial mechanisms to promote EE; Enhanced EE in industry and buildings; Improved energy management; Data collection and indicators; Development of policies and action plans; and Enhanced coordination of regional actions. 33

35 Thank you for your attention! Any questions? Please contact: 9 rue de la Fédération Paris France 34