Michael Glantz Climate Affairs: Why Bother?

Transcription

1 Michael Glantz Climate Affairs: Why Bother? Toyota Sustainable Mobility Seminar La Jolla, California April

2 A definition of sustainable mobility **...mobility that meets the needs of society to move freely, gain access, communicate, trade and establish relationships without sacrificing other essential human or ecological requirements today or in the future. There is a to food issues through biofuels and the search for sustainable mobility. **World Business Council for Sustainable Development

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5 Why a global food crisis in the 21st century? The reason for this food crisis is the current structure of global inequality (as someone noted recently, the rich demand fuel for their SUVs, turning farmland to biofuel production at the expense of food needed by the poor) combined with the basic Malthusian reality of scarcity: The very spread of capitalism in previously closed economies such as India and China has spurred rapacious demand for oil and natural gas (whose price rises have an inflationary effect on food prices), and the emergence of a middle class pretty much the same size as America s, who are not only seeking cars and appliances, but are also eating more meat and producing a single calorie of meat protein takes seven to 12 calories of grain, which has dramatically increased inflationary pressure on grain prices. msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/msnbc/components/ Photo_StoryLevel/080411/ Haiti-foodhmed-258p.hmedium.jpg&imgrefurl= 2008/04/14/there-goes-the-washington-consensus/ &usg= QRRtGfO0e_9- xhnunpokq1itrse=&h=273&w=407&sz=24&hl=en&start=109 &tbnid=0qczkgwc7jzjpm:&tbnh=84&tbnw=125&prev=/ images%3fq%3dfood%2briots%2band%2bbiofuels%26gbv %3D2%26ndsp%3D20%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26start %3D100%26newwindow%3D1

6 ccb.colorado.edu Climate Affairs is more than just Science Impacts Politics, policy and law Economics Ethics Statistics Modeling It encompasses everything

7 Why Bother? Environmental Processes that worry me Models and their outputs are subject to different views and interpretations Observations are less so. Sea level is rising at various rates The 10 warmest years on record have occurred in past decade or so. Warm ecosystems are moving upslope into formerly cooler areas Arctic Sea Ice has rapidly been disappearing Warm climate disease vectors are moving poleward into the mid-latitudes

8 Here s a question no one seems to be able to answer: What would have to happen for you to switch your view about whether human activities are or are not causing global warming? As a Believer in global warming As a Skeptic on global warming

9 Climate-related concepts to keep in mind We have always been at war with climate Climate change vs a changing climate There are winners and losers with climate change and in figuring out how and when best to cope with it. Humans are part of the global climate system

10 Climate-related ideas that demand better understanding 1. Climate-proofing 2. Food security 3. Ground zero 4. Deniers 5. Extremes 6. The verb to be 7. Ecosystems goods & services 8. Drivers (of change) 9. Mitigation (of greenhouse gas emissions) 10. Adaptation (to climate change) 11. Geo-engineering 12. Purposely changing the atmosphere s thermostat Plan B but there is no Planet B!!

11 My view on Climate-related ideas that demand better understanding 1. Climate-proofing --- misleading 2. Food security --- misnomer 3. Ground zero --- misfocused 4. Deniers --- misapplied 5. Extremes --- misdirected 6. The verb is --- misused 7. Ecosystems goods & services --- misconception 8. Drivers (of change) --- misdirecting 9. Mitigation (of greenhouse gas emissions) --- misarticulated 10. Adaptation (to climate change) --- misunderstood 11. Geo-engineering --- misadventure 12. Purposely changing the atmosphere s thermostat --- misguided Many Plan B s but there is no Planet B!!

12 Climate-proofing: an impossible dream? This notion is appearing more frequently The Netherlands is pursuing climate-proofing No place can be 100 protected from climate variations and extremes Who would buy a raincoat that is 60% waterproofed. It should be expressed as toward climate-proofing

13 Food security Food security is a goal of all countries. Food insecurity is the reality. Most countries are food insecure, such as those in sub-saharan Africa or Southeast Asia. Call it what it is --- Food Insecurity.

14 Ground zero This notion refers to places that consider themselves as ground zero for climate change impacts. Truth is almost every place on Earth is ground zero for climate change impacts which means that Planet Earth is really Ground Zero. There s no place on the Planet to hide.

15 Climate change deniers Climate scientists refer to all skeptics as deniers. This is a mistake. There are legitimate climate skeptics.

16 Extremes There is a constant search for a dread factor to get policy makers and society to act on global warming. Scientists talk about extremes as record-setting extremes, but Hurricane Katrina was not record setting except in impacts. High-impact climate and weather events can be as devastating as record setters.

17 The verb to be : What a difference a word makes... "is" Is global warming happening? Is the scientific information in hand today strong enough to prompt societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? Is human activity involved in the global warming trend of the past century and a half? Is any country really committed to dealing with national GHG reductions, even in the absence of other countries doing so? Are climate extremes and other climate-related anomalies reliably connected to global warming? Is global warming the type of creeping environmental problem that can be met with graduated societal responses? X What a difference a word makes... "is"

18 Ecosystems goods and services The Millennium Assessment guiding principle: Ecosystems goods and service for human well-being. This is ego-centric. Do you get the same results if you change it to Human goods and services for ecosystem well being? This is eco-centric. Do not expect the same answers.

19 Drivers (of change) Climate change reports talk about drivers of change. Physical and societal Climate drivers are targeted for attention. But, there are underlying pressures on policy makers as well as on the land though less obvious than drivers. Shanghai Changes

20 Mitigation (of greenhouse gas emissions) The word mitigation has been redefined by the climate science community, applying it only to reducing GHG emissions. It was first used normally to mean softening impacts. The media use it now for GHGs, but society uses it to mean softening of impacts. Confusion results.

21 Adaptation (to climate change) Originally, for climate issues adaptation was a response to an impact. The definition of adaptation by the UNFCCC (only due to climate change) was not the same as the one by the IPCC (response to any impact). Adaptation now is proactive and reactive. The concept of adaptation is confusing to scientists and is also confusing to the public. Can the media help clarify it?

22 Geo-engineering geo-engineering has been used by societies through history to cope with a varying, changing and uncertain climate. A few years ago, the concept was captured by the climate community. Now it applies only to engineering modifications of the planetary climate to counter global warming. Most stories are descriptive gee-whiz stories of geo-engineering science. What of the down side?

23 Ratcheting down the atmosphere s thermostat: A weighty analogy Scientists talk of carbon dioxide levels in ppmv We are now near 390 ppmv Preindustrial level was about 270 ppmv Scientists consider 400+ as a dangerous level to surpass You can t select the climate you liked of the past and go back to it by lowering the CO2 ppmv. you can t pick the climate you like. You can t go home again!

24 Concluding comments The media s climate change coverage to the public is both helping to clarifying issues and is making them confusing. Humans are part of the climate system, not separate from it! Is it a responsibility of the media to educate the public? While geo-engineering the planet s atmosphere is Plan B. However, there is no PLANET B!