NYMEX - Annual Strips

Transcription

1 Week Summary: The EIA reported a storage injection of 112 Bcf for the week ending May 22nd. The much larger-than-expected build in inventories sent NYMEX July gas futures 14.1 cents lower on the day to $2.706/MMBtu, and then continued with another 6 cent drop Friday. Storage is now only 18 Bcf below the 5 Year Average, and next week's injection is expected to finally surpass it. This downturn in prices proves what most experts have been saying for the past few weeks, which is that the current market cannot consitently support gas prices in the $3/MMBtu range. With many more 100+ Bcf injections expected in the coming weeks, the only thing that could push the prices back up is a large increase in power burn. However, the $3/MMBtu gas prices a few weeks ago caused a lot of gas power generation to lose out to coal burning, which could force gas prices to remain below $3/MMBtu for the whole summer, especially if temperatures are below average. Cal '16 and '17 also faced a steep drop, hitting lows that have not been seen since late April. Natural Gas: Storage Inventories EIA Natural Gas Storage Summary This week Same week - Last year 5 Year Average for this week Total (Bcf) 2,101 1,364 2,119 Current levels vs Previous years (Bcf) % Difference - Current vs Previous years Injection/ Withdrawal % -0.85% Natural Gas: NYMEX NYMEX - Annual s $4.80 $4.40 $4.00 $3.60 $3.20 Henry Hub 2016 Annual Henry Hub 2017 Annual Henry Hub 2018 Annual NYMEX Natural Gas Summary Close () % Change from Last Week Prompt Month: Jul % Front Month: Aug % Calendar % Calendar % $2.80 1

2 New England Annual Forward s - Basis Algon Gates 2016 Annual Algon Gates 2017 Annual $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 Algon Gates, Natural Gas Basis Summary 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change 2016 $2.739 $ % $ % $ % $ % 2017 $2.038 $ % $ % $ % $ % $80 $70.H.Internal_Hub $60 $50 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 ISO-NE.H.Internal_Hub Power Movement 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change $ $ % $ % $ % $ % 2

3 New York Annual Forward s - Basis Transco Z 6 Non-NY 2016 Annual Transco Z 6 Non-NY 2017 Annual $0.70 $0.50 $ Transco Zone 6 Non-NY, Natural Gas Basis Summary 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change 2016 $0.342 $ % $ % $ % $ % 2017 $0.308 $ % $ % % $ % $70 N.Y.C - J $60 $50 NYISO - N.Y.C. - J Power Movement 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change $ $ % $ % $ % $ % 3

4 Mid-Atlantic Annual Forward s - Basis Tetco M Annual Tetco M Annual $0.40 $ $0.35 -$0.60 Tetco M3, Natural Gas Basis Summary % Change % Change % Change % Change $ $ % -$ % -$ % % 2017 $0.049 $ % -$ % -$ % $ % $52 BGE $49 $46 $43 PJM BGE, Power Movement % Change % Change % Change % Change $ $ % $ % $ % $ % 4

5 Southern California $0.30 $0.20 $0.00 Annual Forward s - Basis SoCal Border 2016 Annual SoCal Border 2017 Annual - SoCal Border, Natural Gas Basis Summary % Change % Change % Change % Change $ $ % -$ % $ % $ % 2017 $0.044 $ % $ % $ % $ % $50 SP15 $45 $35 $30 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 CAISO SP15, Power Movement % Change % Change % Change % Change $ $ % $ % $ % $ % 5

6 Texas Annual Forward s - Basis Houston Ship Channel 2016 Annual Houston Ship Channel 2017 Annual $0.20 $0.15 $0.05 $0.00 -$0.05 Houston Ship Channel % Change % Change % Change % Change 2016 $0.011 $ % -$ % $ % $ % 2017 $0.057 $ % $ % $ % $ % $45 Houston Zone $35 $30 $25 ERCOT Houston Zone % Change % Change % Change % Change $ $ % $ % $ % $ % 6

7 Pacific Northwest -$0.05 -$0.20 -$0.35 Annual Forward s - Basis NW Sumas 2016 Annual NW Sumas 2017 Annual -$0.50 NW Sumas, Natural Gas Basis Summary % Change % Change % Change % Change $ $ % -$ % -$ % -$ % $ $ % -$ % -$ % $ % Florida Basis - Annual Forward s Movement FGT Z Annual FGT Z Annual $0.15 $0.12 $0.09 $0.06 $0.03 $0.00 FGT Z 3, Natural Gas Basis Summary % Change % Change % Change % Change 2016 $0.058 $ % $ % $ % $ % 2017 $0.077 $ % $ % $ % $ % 7