Future Grid: The Environment

Transcription

1 Future Grid: The Environment Ward Jewell, Wichita State University Judith Cardell, Smith College Lindsay Anderson, Cornell University Janet Twomey, Wichita State University Michael Overcash, Wichita State University PSERC Future Grid Initiative Webinar Series February 21, 2012

2 History Air Pollution Events North America and Western Europe (not electric energy related) 2 Donora, Pennsylvania, October 1948 London, December 1952

3 3 History Environmental Standards for the US electric energy industry Air Pollution Control Act of 1955 Clean Air Act: 1963/67/70/90 Water Pollution Control Act (Clean Water Act) 1949/72

4 4 Existing Environmental Regulations for the US electric energy industry Nitrous Oxides (Nox) Sulfur Dioxide (SO 2 ) Particulate Matter (including flyash) Discharge of waste into water

5 New Environmental Regulations for the US electric energy industry 5 Cross -State Air Pollution Rule, July 2011 Stayed December 30 by US Court of Appeals, transitioning back to Clean Air Interstate Rule Mercury and Air Toxics Rule, December 2011

6 New Environmental Regulations for the US electric energy industry 6 Solid Waste Rule, 2011 Clean Water Act 316(b), April 20, 2011 Once through cooling

7 Future Environmental Challenges 7 for the Electric Energy Industry 1. Mitigation of greenhouse gases 2. Adapting to changing climate 3. Availability of water

8 Mitigation of greenhouse gases Atmospheric CO 2 8

9 9 Shares of Greenhouse Gases PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, December 20, 2011, 20%2520CO2%2520or%2520GHG%2520emitting%2520countries%253F#vraag9

10 10 US CO 2 emissions Coal: lb CO 2 /MBtu Oil: lb CO 2 /MBtu Gas : lb CO 2 /MBtu Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy,

11 11 CO 2 limits Kyoto: 5% below 1990 by 2012 EU: 20% below 1990 by 2020 Canada: 20% below 2006 by 2020 RGGI: 10% below 2009 by 2018 California: 15% below 2005 by 2020 Florida: 2000 levels by levels by percent below 1990 levels by 2050 Illinois: new coal plants must capture carbon : 50%, : 70 %, 2017+: 90 % IPCC: 50-85% below 2000 by 2050 Obama: 80% below 2000 by 2050 Durban, 2011: no international agreement

12 RGGI Auction: March $1.89/ ton CO 2 Proceeds are invested in programs that benefit consumers and build a clean energy economy. 52% improve energy efficiency 11% accelerate the deployment of renewable energy 14% provide energy bill payment assistance 1% other greenhouse gas reduction programs

13 13 EU Emission Trading Scheme Market opened in 2005 Futures: /metric ton (1000 kg) CO 2 = $/ton Spot market suspended January 2011 after cybertheft of > 30M CO 2 allowances Trading has resumed in most markets at least half the revenue should be used to fight and adapt to climate change

14 Technologies to limit 14 greenhouse gas emissions fuel switching: coal to natural gas Miaolei Shao, The Effects of Greenhouse Gas Limits on Electric Power System Dispatch And Operations, Ph.D. Dissertation, Wichita State University, 2008.

15 Questions about hydraulic fracturing for natural gas production. 15 Shawnee, Oklahoma, earthquake 2011 St. Gregory's University

16 Carbon Sequestration 16

17 Conservation US T&D Losses lb CO 2 /kwh x 250 x 10 9 kwh = 335 x 10 9 lb CO 2 Karen Forsten, Tomorrow s T&D, Public Utilities Fortnightly, December 2010, /

18 Costs ($/MWh) for Conserved Electricity 18 DCI: Demand Conservation Incentive CTP: Cap-and-Trade Program Anthony Paul, Karen Palmer, and Matt Woerman, Supply Curves for Conserved Electricity, RFF DP 11-11, April 2011,

19 Demand response 19 Jesse B. Langston, The OGE Energy 2020 Plan - An Innovative Approach to Meeting Tomorrow s Energy Challenges Frontiers of Power Conference, Stillwater, Oklahoma, October 2011.

20 Carbon-Neutral Generation: Nuclear 20 Brian Montopoli, Poll: Support for New Nuclear Plants Drops, CBS News, March 22, 2011,

21 Renewable Generation Tax credits and incentives Portfolio standards Net metering Wind 21 Biomass

22 22 Wind vs. Load Piyasak Poonpun, Effects of New Low Carbon Emission Generators and Energy Storage on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Electric Power Systems, PhD Dissertation, Wichita State University, 2009.

23 Solar energy vs. Load clear day 23 Full sun load solar Piyasak Poonpun, Effects of New Low Carbon Emission Generators and Energy Storage on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Electric Power Systems, PhD Dissertation, Wichita State University, 2009.

24 24 Operating Reserves Operating reserve requirements: 5-12% of forecast load Capacity credits (California ISO) Coal, nuclear, natural gas, oil, hydro: 100% Solar 89.5% Geothermal 83% Wind %

25 25 Example: Wind vs. CO 2 Piyasak Poonpun, Effects of New Low Carbon Emission Generators and Energy Storage on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Electric Power Systems, PhD Dissertation, Wichita State University, 2009.

26 Displacement of fossil generation 26 by 300 MW PV, no CO 2 price Complicated by fuel and operating costs, fossil plant design and ramp rates, and transmission congestion. Piyasak Poonpun, Effects of New Low Carbon Emission Generators and Energy Storage on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Electric Power Systems, PhD Dissertation, Wichita State University, 2009.

27 Example: changes in costs 27 -$3,780 -$2,567 -$11,312 PV is paid locational marginal price. Costs are higher with net metering. Piyasak Poonpun, Effects of New Low Carbon Emission Generators and Energy Storage on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Electric Power Systems, PhD Dissertation, Wichita State University, 2009.

28 $60B: $ American Electric Power $/kwh, Interstate if Transmission spread Vision for over Wind Integration, all US kwh New Transmission is Needed Proposed AEP 765 kv Transmission Overlay

29 Bulk Energy Storage 29 Battery storage technologies Lead Acid Vanadium Redox Sodium Sulphur Zinc Bromine

30 30 Added Cost of Energy Application: T&D, 2 cycles/day, 250 days/year Battery costs: 2007 manufacturers estimates Piyasak Poonpun, Ward Jewell, Analysis of the Cost per Kilowatt Hour to Store Electricity. IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion, Volume 23, Issue 2, June 2008, Page(s:

31 Electric Energy Storage 31 Zhouxing Hu, Ward T. Jewell, Optimal Power Flow Analysis of Energy Storage for Congestion Relief, Emissions Reduction, and Cost Savings, 2011 Power Systems Conference and Exhibition, Phoenix, March 2011.

32 Plug Electric Vehicles 32

33 33 Electric Vehicles Chevrolet Volt, US average generation mix CO 2 emissions 16 kwh electric runs 40 miles 16 kwh x $0.10/kWh = $1.60 $1.60 / 40 miles = $0.04 / mile 1.30 lb CO 2 /kwh x 16 kwh = 21 lb CO 2 30 mpg gasoline engine 40 miles / 30 mpg = 1.3 gallons 1.3 gallons x $3.50/gallon = $4.55 $4.55 / 40 miles = $0.11 / mile 19.4 lb CO 2 /gallon x 1.3 gallon = 25 lb CO 2

34 34 New Challenge for the Electric Energy Industry: Electric Vehicle Charging Source: Renault,

35 Adapting to changing climate 35

36 Regional Climate Change Models: Heat 36 Anthony Arguez, Changes in Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. NOAA National Climatic Data Center

37 Higher average temperature: air and ocean More extreme highs and lows 37 Now: 394 ppm B1: low emissions A1B: average emissions A2: high emissions IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007,

38 Climate Change Models: Hurricanes 38 Anthony Arguez, Changes in Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. NOAA National Climatic Data Center

39 Changing precipitation patterns 39 National Geographic, ngm.nationalgeographic.com/climateconnections/climate-map

40 Climate Change Models: 40 Precipitation Intensity Anthony Arguez, Changes in Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. NOAA National Climatic Data Center

41 More severe weather and extreme 41 weather patterns increased frequency, severity and duration

42 Martin Vermeer, Stefan Rahmstorf, Global sea level linked to global temperature, PNAS Early Edition, Forecast sea level rise 42

43 Rising sea levels/ land subsidence 43

44 Changes to energy and peak load consumption patterns 44 California Independent System Operator Guido Franco and Alan H. Sanstad, Climate Change and Electricity Demand In California, California Climate Change Center, CEC SF, February 2006

45 Reduced thermal ratings 45

46 Effects on hydroelectric production 46 underproduction overproduction spilling threats to dams threats to fish

47 Changing wind and sunlight patterns 47 BCLM Charles Curry, Projected Changes in Surface Winds over Southern BC-Northern Washington Using a Regional Climate Model, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling & Analysis

48 48 Effects on wind and solar energy Investments in renewables may be threatened as resources change severe weather may damage renewable generators

49 Changing vegetation 49

50 Changing vegetation 50

51 Availability of Water Forecast changes in precipitation 51 Anthony Arguez, Changes in Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. NOAA National Climatic Data Center

52 Water affects population migration, changes electric loading. 52 Water supply, 2025 World Resources Institute - PAGE, 2000, earthtrends.wri.org/maps_spatial/maps_detail_static.php?map_select=265&theme=2

53 53 US freshwater consumption by sector Energy Demands on Water Resources. Report to Congress on the Interdependency of Energy and Water. U.S. Department of Energy (December, 2006).

54 Water consumption for electricity gallons/mwhe including geothermal and solar thermal 54 Energy Demands on Water Resources. Report to Congress on the Interdependency of Energy and Water. U.S. Department of Energy (December, 2006).

55 55 Water irrigation consumption for Fuel Extraction, Processing, Storage and Transport Enhanced oil recovery Gas storage in salt cavern Coal gasification Energy Demands on Water Resources. Report to Congress on the Interdependency of Energy and Water. U.S. Department of Energy (December, 2006).

56 TOTAL MASS OF WASTE PRODUCED (lb/hr Life Cycle Analysis , , ,000 1: FF 99.7% 2: ESP 99.9% 3: FF & ESP 4: Wet FGD & FF 5: Wet FGD & ESP 6: Wet FGD, FF & ESP 7: LSD & FF 8: LSD & ESP 9: LSD, ESP & FF 10: DSI & FF 11: DSI & ESP 12: SCR, FGD & ESP 13: SCR, FGD & FF 14: SCR, FGD, ESP & FF 6 4, 5 9 8, ,000 10, 11 Max Control 0 3 1, 2 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 TOTAL MASS CONTROLLED IN AIR EMISSION (lb/hr) Cohen Hubal, E. and M. Overcash. Net waste reduction analysis applied to air pollution control technologies, J. Air&Waste Mgmt Assoc. 43(11): , 1993.

57 Electricity from Renewable Resources: Status, Prospects, and Impediments, National Academy of Sciences, 2010, Life Cycle Analysis: CO 2 emissions 57

58 Conclusions Three significant environmental concerns: Mitigating greenhouse gases includes transportation GHGs Adapting to changing climate Availability of water. Planning for these should: Consider life cycle costs and benefits Optimize long-term environmental benefits electric system reliability costs of implementation.

59 Conclusions Issues are not intrinsic to markets, so new regulations are appropriate Issues, technologies, and regulations Interact and at times conflict. Potential costs must be balanced against the benefits of improving, or the costs of not improving, the environment.