NW Hydro and California

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1 NW Hydro and California SUMMER 2017 PublicGeneratingPool.com

2 Northwest Hydro There is approximately 46,000 Mw of hydro capability in the Pacific Northwest and Canada Bonneville Power Administration: 22,450 MW BC Hydro: 11,850 MW PGP Utilities: 5,300 MW Others: 6,400 Mw 2

3 NW Hydro energy production is large relative to California Hydro Source: Energy GPS Analysis conducted for PGP, April

4 Majority of NW hydro is reserved to serve regional load Source: EIA, CEC and Air Resources Board Data 4

5 The Northwest and California benefit from their diversity Pacific AC and DC Interties allow for exchange of surplus energy and capacity to take advantage of load and resource diversity between the Northwest and California California imports surplus hydropower from the Northwest to displace thermal resources California imports hydropower during summer peak loads Northwest imports from California during extreme weather Additional coordination with NW hydro can further support California GHG goals and help with the solar surplus 5

6 Surplus NW hydro imports provide benefit to California In 2015, Northwest hydro imports (recognized by ARB as specified source or asset controlling supplier) served roughly 5% of California s load % of California Load Served by NW Hydro NW Hydro Imports 5% Saved 6 million MT of GHG emissions when compared to efficient gas power plants Reduced California s electricity GHG emissions by about 7% Other Sources 95% Source: E3 Analysis Conducted for Chelan County PUD, July

7 Hydro is uniquely able to support system reliability Source: The Value of Hydropower to the Northwest Grid, PNUCC November Table 9 7

8 Hydro can provide additional value to support renewables The ISO has experienced steeper ramps and a deeper belly 4 years ahead of projections Through the storage of water, hydropower can accept renewable oversupply during the day and provide carbonfree fast-ramping capability that can be used to address morning and evening ramps Market changes are needed to more fully capture that potential Source: California ISO 4/19/17 Briefing on Supply Conditions to EIM Governing Body 8

9 E3 Analysis: Energy Neutral Use of Flexibility Starts with 2016 historical dispatch for CA and the NW Redispatches NW hydro to reduce solar curtailment and during morning and evening ramp Redispatch is energy-neutral during each day Applies transmission and hydro flexibility constraints on redispatch Three scenarios: 1500 MW of hydro redispatch using 2016 actual conditions 1500 MW of hydro redispatch with 10 GW of additional solar 3000 MW of hydro redispatch with 10 GW of additional solar 9

10 Hydro flexibility reduces curtailment and CT dispatch Actual March 12, 2016 Dispatch & Net Load Dispatch with 1500 MW of NW Flexibility Import Flexibility Enables CA to avoid curtailment & reduce evening CT dispatch Hydro Imports reduced from 10am-2pm, increased by from 6-10pm Source: E3 Analysis Conducted for Chelan County PUD, July

11 Hydro flexibility provides cost and environmental benefits Key Savings Impacts 1500 MW in MW, GW solar 3000 MW, GW solar Cost Savings ($millions/year) $37 $70 $94 GHG Savings (Metric tons CO2/year) 240, , ,000 NOx Savings (tons/day) Avoided CA solar curtailment (MWh/year) 100, ,000 1,400,000 Flexible dispatch of NW hydro avoids over 1800 CT starts/year in California and reduces local NOx emissions 15oo MW case provides GHG savings in excess of the 140,486 metric tons estimated for the EIM in 2016 Future solar case adds 10 GW solar in California, nearly doubling benefits; increasing NW Hydro dispatched to CAISO from 1500 to 3000 provides additional benefits Source: E3 Analysis Conducted for Chelan County PUD, July

12 Continued NW and CA collaboration is valuable NW hydro currently provides low-cost, carbon free power to roughly 5% of California s load Additional hydro flexibility could be used to: Reduce renewable resource curtailment Help meet ramping needs Reduce the number of starts needed for local combustion turbines Hydro is uniquely able to provide support services needed for system reliability 12