LINK BETWEEN ENERGY DEMAND AND ECONOMIC GROWTH OF TURKEY

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1 LINK BETWEEN ENERGY DEMAND AND ECONOMIC GROWTH OF TURKEY YILMAZ, Fatih FH Aachen Energy Systems M. Sc. FACHBEREICH XXX GGF. NAME STUDIERENDE(R) o. SEMINAR XXX 1

2 General Information about the Country Population: 75 million EXPORTS Istanbul 2011 GDP $ billion $ per capita Ankara Home Appliances, Textiles, Metal manufactures, Transport Equipments, Foodstuffs Machinery, Chemicals, Semi-finished goods, Fuels, Transport equipments IMPORTS

3 Turkey and EU Relations Turkey is a candidate country to accede EU since 1987 and started negotiotions in The accede of Turkey is not only benefitial for EU but also for Turkey itself, however huge oppositions come up in both communities. The pros are mostly based on economic cooperation whereas cons are results of the thoughts of having different culture and/or religion

4 Primary Energy Demand Nuclear 5% Hydro and Other Renewable s 7% Oil 35% Hydro Power 4% Wind and Other Renewable s 7% Oil 29% Coal 29% Coal 27% Natural Gas 24% Natural Gas 33% World Primary Energy Demand 12,3 billion TOE (2010) Primary Energy Demand of Turkey 108,2 million TOE (2010) 24 th biggest energy consumer in the world

5 Thousand TOE Primary Energy Supply and Demand: Energy Dependency 140,0 120,0 100,0 80,0 60,0 40,0 20,0 0,0 Primary Energy Supply and Demand ,3 31,6 PE Supply PE Demand Nuclear energy is considered to be the solution of energy dependency in the near future!!! The reason of energy dependency is caused by natural gas consumption. Turkey is the second largest natural gas customer of Russia after Germany

6 Thousand GWh Electrical Energy Consumption 250,0 Electricity Consumption Fuel Oil 2% Geotherm al 0% Wind 1% Others 1% 200,0 221,2 Coal 25% 150,0 100,0 50,0 Electricity Consumpt ion Hydro Energy 25% Natural Gas 46% 0, Primary Energies for Electricity Production Electricity consumption per capita is 2871 kwh for 2010 (world average: 2600 kwh, developed countries: 8900 kwh) Turkey is the first country among 30 OECD countries and second in the world ranking (after China) for its growth of energy demand over the last 12 years

7 Thousand GWh Projection of Electrical Energy Consumption by Electricity Consumption Source: Turkish Electricity Transmission Corperation Average 7,1% growth rate of electricity demand. By the year 2017 the production capability according to the existing and projected power plants will not be sufficient for supplying the demand. A huge market for international energy companies

8 The Goals of Energy Sector by 2023, 100th Establishment Anniversery To diversify the energy supply by supporting the domestic sources in order to decrease the share of natural gas lower than 30%. -Utilizing domestic lignite and hard coal reserves (only 40% is being used to generate electrical energy) Supporting the renewable energy technologies as well as considering energy security. Feed-in tariff for renewable energy systems was accepted in In order to meet the huge demand of electrical energy, nuclear power plants should be included in the energy portfolio. It is aimed to increase the share of nuclear energy to 5% (5000 MW installed capacity). According to the Kyoto Protocol, the CO2 emission of Turkey should be limited 604 million ton/year. Source: Turkish Ministiry of Energy and Natural Resources

9 Relation between Electricity Demand and GDP Growth Rates Change in electricity demand (%) GDP growth rate (%) Source: Turkish Ministiry of Energy and Natural Resources

10 Energy Coridor: Turkey Baku-Tiflis-Ceyhan (BTC) Oil Pipeline World s second largest pipeline with 1760 km of length. Oil transportation capacity of 1,2 millon barrels per day (85 million barrel is the daily world consumption). Source: Turkish Ministiry of Foreign Affairs It is an important pipeline in order to decrease the tanker traffic in Turkish straits

11 Energy Coridor: Turkey Nabucco Natural Gas Pipeline Project Projected capacity: 31 billion m3/a. NG consumption of EU-27 countries by 2010 is 552 billion m3/a. By means of this project the cooperation between Turkey and EU will be stronger. The project has been supported by EU and the US, however a big opposition from Russian side that they even came up with a new pipeline project called South stream. Source: Eurogas The Nabucco pipeline would be more effective in increasing Europe's energy security than the South Stream project as it increases the number of gas suppliers. The potential suppliers for Nabucco are considered to be Iraq, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Egypt. Nabucco Gas Pipeline International GmbH OMV (Austria) MOL (Hungary) Transgaz (Romania) Bulgargaz (Bulgaria) BOTAŞ (Turkey) RWE (Germany)

12 Source: Asia Times Oil Reserves and Production in Turkey 3/4 of world s oil reserves are found in neighbouring countries of Turkey. 5,3% It is strongly belived that in south eastern part of Turkey there is huge oil reserves. It was recently announced by the minister of energy that there had been found an oil field and that could be a first step of giant invention (April 2012). However landscape is not appropirate for getting the oil out. Lack of technology plays an important role. 10,3% 10,8% 7,4%

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