ICCT Global Transportation Roadmap Overview. April/2012

Transcription

1 ICCT Global Transportation Roadmap Overview April/2012

2 Overview and Scope of Work The Roadmap is a tool to help policymakers worldwide identify and understand trends in the transportation sector, assess emission impacts of different policy options, and frame plans to effectively reduce emissions of both greenhouse gases (GHGs) and local air pollutants. The core of the Roadmap is a spreadsheetbased model developed in Microsoft Excel that calculates historical and future well-towheel (WTW) emissions from the transportation sector for different policy scenarios. The Roadmap compares the effects of policies that have been adopted and those that are under active discussion with the policy potential for the largest vehicle markets. Pollutants Local air pollutants (NO x, SO x, CO, PM) GHGs (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O) Modes On-road (LDVs, buses, 2 and 3 wheelers, HDTs) Rail Marine (domestic/international) Aviation (domestic/international) Regions United States, EU-27, China, India, Japan, Brazil, South Korea, Canada, Australia, Mexico, Russia, Rest of Latin America, Rest of Europe, Rest of Asia-Pacific, Middle-East, and Africa. Years 2000 to 2050 in 5-year increments Outputs WTW/WTT/TTW emissions Energy consumption Vehicle stock and sales 2

3 Roadmap Model Spreadsheet Structure NON MODE-SPECIFIC INPUT PARAMETERS MODE-SPECIFIC INPUT PARAMETERS AND CALCULATIONS OUTPUTS LDV INPUTS LDV CALCULATIONS BUS INPUTS BUS CALCULATIONS POLICY LEVERS 2-WHEELERS INPUTS 2-WHEELERS CALCULATIONS SOCIO-ECONOMIC MODULE 3-WHEELERS INPUTS 3-WHEELERS CALCULATIONS MODEL OUTPUTS TURNOVER MODULE LHDT INPUTS LHDT CALCULATIONS SUMMARY OF OUTPUTS FUEL INPUTS MHDT INPUTS MHDT CALCULATIONS COUNTRY DASHBOARD HHDT INPUTS HHDT CALCULATIONS SYSTEM CONFIGURATION PASSENGER RAIL INPUTS / CALCULATIONS FREIGHT RAIL INPUTS / CALCULATIONS AVIATION INPUTS / CALCULATIONS WATERBORNE INPUTS / CALCULATIONS 3

4 Roadmap Model Simplified Emission Calculation Methodology SOCIOECONOMIC INDICATORS TRANSPORTATION ACTIVITY LEGEND INPUTS CALCULATION S OUTPUTS TURNOVER ALGORITHM VEHICLE SALES BY TECHNOLOGY VEHICLE ACTIVITY VEHICLE POPULATION VEHICLE SALES NEW FLEET ENERGY EFFICIENCY FUEL CONSUMPTION TTW EMISSION FACTORS EMISSION STANDARDS FUEL BLENDS WTT EMISSION FACTORS WTT EMISSIONS TTW EMISSIONS WTW EMISSIONS 4

5 Emission Reduction Strategies IMPROVE Vehicle efficiency improvements Faster introduction of emission standards Decarbonization of fuels and electricity Low sulfur fuels AVOID Transportation activity reduction through travel demand management, land-use policies, and improvements in efficiency of passenger and freight transportation systems. SHIFT Mode shift to less energy-intensive modes (passenger and freight). 5

6 Policy Trajectories NO POLICIES CASE Assumes no policies adopted post Intended only to be used for quantification of Adopted Policies. ADOPTED POLICIES Includes existing, enforceable and finalized regulations but assumes no further changes GHG SAVINGS (GtCO 2 e) 1.6 Gt CO2e POLICY PIPELINE Considers all policies under active regulatory development or that exist as formal, stated policy goals. POLICY POTENTIAL Includes technically feasible policies and plausible regulatory timelines, without any consideration of political will Adopted policies and those in the pipeline are not sufficient to revert the trend in increasing transportation emissions. The Policy Potential more than doubles the possible GHG reduction and results in relatively stable emissions out to % REDUCTION FROM 2000 LEVELS 85% REDUCTION FROM 2000 LEVELS

7 Policy Trajectories Policies by Region and Mode Mode Adopted Policies Policy Pipeline Potential Policies LDV *Includes Pre-2012 Standards HDV US MY NHTSA US EPA/NHTSA US - ZEV mandate in California to 2016 Canada - CAFC LDV Standards Canada GHG MY EU g/km* China LDV Phases I,II,III China Phase I for motorcycles Japan - Top Runner Approach MY 2010, , and 2020 South Korea - Average Fuel Economy (AFE) Program U.S EPA/NHTSA Canada - Equiv US HDV EU-27 LCV 147g/km Japan - Top Runner Approach MY 2015 China LCV Phases I, II U.S EPA/NHTSA US - ZEV mandate in California to 2025 Canada eq. US Mexico eq. US 2016 EU-27 Parliamentary target for 2020 (95gCO2/km) China Phase IV India 20km/L Mexico eq. US China Phase I Main vehicle markets 4% annual improv. after policy timeline (1.1% for motorcycles) EVs N/A N/A 2-9% sales by 2030 Fuels Aviation Assumed no GHG benefits from biofuels with exception of Brazilian sugarcane EU ETS BAU improv. 21% by 2030 over Assumed no GHG benefits from biofuels with exception of Brazilian sugarcane ICAO s standard 27% improv. by 2030 Main vehicle markets 40% reduction in fuel consumption by 2030 from 2010 levels. Assumed no GHG potential 29% improv. by 2030 Marine EEDI Market-based measures 10% reduction by 2030 from 2007 levels. Mode Shift Activity Reduction Based on completed transit and freight rail projects. Based on funded transit and freight rail projects. Based on potential transit and freight rail projects. - - Based on potential logistics improvements and reduction of urban trip lengths. 7

8 Global GHG Emission Reduction from Transportation Policies Breakdown by Policy Trajectory and Strategy Type Transportation policies have the potential to reduce GHG emissions by 40% in 2030 (from a 2030 baseline assuming no policies), equivalent to a total reduction of 6.4 GtCO 2 e Gt CO2e 4 3 Gt CO2e Adopted Policies Policy Pipeline Policy Potential Avoid Shift Improve ADOPTED POLICIES POLICY PIPELINE POLICY POTENTIAL ALL POLICIES HDV 5% Waterb orne 23% LDV 72% Mode Shift 17% Waterb orne 7% HDV 19% Aviation 3% LDV 54% Avoid 41% Shift 28% Improve 31% Avoid 31% Shift 22% Improve 47% 8

9 GHG Emission Reduction from Transportation Policies Breakdown by Country The US, China, and Europe are responsible for the large majority of expected emission reductions from adopted and prospective policies. Reductions from marine and aviation sectors are substantial and thus should be monitored, enforced, and encouraged Canada EU South Korea U.S 0.10 China Japan Mexico India POLICY PIPELINE 0.06 ADOPTED POLICIES Brazil

10 Policy Progress How far are countries from their policy potential? All regions evaluated fall short of their policy potential in 2030 Some regions are much further ahead than others. For example, while U.S., Japan, and Canada are expected to achieve percent of their policy potential in 2030, Australia is set to achieve less than 20 percent of its policy potential. U.S. Japan Canada EU-27 Mexico China South Korea India Brazil Australia 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% PROGRESS TOWARDS POLICY POTENTIAL (%) Adopted Policies Policy Pipeline Policy Potential 10

11 Impact of Policies on Transportation Carbon Intensity EU-27 Example Carbon intensity of a transportation system defined by gco 2 e/passenger-km and ton-km. Bubble size is proportional to country CO 2 e emissions. Economic and demographic trends have some effect either positive or negative depending on the region on the carbon intensity of transportation system systems. However, most of the impact on transportation carbon intensity is due to policies. An example below is provided for the EU-27, showing how transportation policies have the potential to substantially improve how regions move people and freight Policy Pipeline 2030 Adopted Policies gco2e/ton-km Benchmark 2030 Policy Potential 2030 No Policies ACTIVITY VARIATION ( ) 61% 42% 41% 20 Passenger Freight -5% gco2e/passenger-km 11

12 Planned Deliverables Roadmap Model Excel spreadsheet that calculates historical and future transportation emissions by mode and region based on different policy scenarios. Global Climate Report Evaluation of impact from adopted, prospective, and potential policies on GHG emissions from transportation in key regions. Global Health Report Evaluation of health impacts from adopted, prospective, and potential transportation policies in key regions. Policy Dashboard Frequently updated summary of current adopted and planned policies in key regions. 12