Developments in the Indian Economy and Copper Industry and their Global Impact

Transcription

1 Developments in the Indian Economy and Copper Industry and their Global Impact Ms. Ajita Bajpai Pande Ministry of Mines, India 1

2 Indian Economy : Performance 2

3 Indian Economy : At a glance World s largest democracy : Stable polity, Robust Economy and Strong Judicial System. Second fastest growing economy in the world. Fourth largest economy in terms of purchase power parity. Fast growing consumer base : current 400 mn and to reach 800 mn by Preferred destination for Global investors. Balanced economic growth : Manufacturing, Services and Agriculture. Robust and forward looking regulatory mechanism. 3

4 Overall Economy : GDP (Billion US$ ) FISCAL YEAR 484 CAGR (FY03-09) : 8% Fourth largest economy in terms of purchase power parity 4

5 GDP (US$ Bn) : Break-up 800 CAGR : Services 9.1%, Industry 7.6 %, Agriculture- 4.9 % Services Agriculture Industry Healthy growth in all sectors of economy. FISCAL YEAR 5

6 Share in GDP (%) : Changing composition Agriculture Industry Services Service sector leading the growth momentum 6

7 GDP : Growth (%) / / /8 2008/9 GDP Industrial Manufacturing Temporary slowdown in growth momentum due to global situation FISCAL YEAR 7

8 Manufactured Goods : Growth (%) Basic Goods Capital Goods Consumer Goods FISCAL YEAR 8

9 Corporate Performance (Manufacturing) : % growth Healthy all round growth in corporate sector sale and profitability. 9

10 Investment in Key Infrastructure : India US$ Bn Sector (Act) (Proj.) % Growth Electricity Roads & Bridges Telecom Railways Ports Airports TOTAL (US$ Bn) % Massive investment growth in copper consuming sectors FISCAL YEAR 10

11 Copper Consuming Major Industry : Growth (%) /4 2005/7 2008/9 Utility & Power Transport Infrastructure Engineering Auto & Auto parts Infrastructure and Power propelling growth. FISCAL YEAR 11

12 Indian Economy : Impact of Global Financial Crisis 12

13 Impact of Global Financial Crisis : Not a single Indian bank failed or faltered. Financial sector showed extraordinary resilience to weather global crisis a lesson to many world economic power. Quick recovery after temporary blip. Domestic consumption largely un-affected. Slowdown in GDP due to drop in exports exposure to Europe and USA. Quick Govt. response helped speedy recovery. Well poised to capture emerging opportunities. 13

14 Monetary Policy : A key stimulus tool Quick Govt. response helped early recovery from Global crisis. 14

15 Quarterly GDP Growth (%) : Positive GDP growth during peak of financial crisis. 15

16 Quarterly Industrial Production Growth : Quick rebound from impact of Global financial crisis 16

17 Expansion of bank finance to commercial sector (Rs. Bn) Strong growth in Bank finance to commercial sector almost at pre global crisis level. 17

18 Indian Copper Industry 18

19 Refined Copper Production Capacity : Kt Cu Birla Sterlite HCL Jhagadia Additional smelting capacity of 400 Kt is expected to be commissioned by 2011/12 19

20 Copper Concentrates : Dependent on imports (Kt Cu) Requirement Domestic Mines Imports World s leading mining majors supply concentrates to India. 20

21 Production by Indian Smelters : Refined (KT) (E) Self reliant in supply of refined copper to semis industry. FISCAL YEAR 21

22 Refined Copper Exports from India (Kt Cu) KT (E) FISCAL YEAR Net exporter today from net importer till

23 Consumption Pattern 23

24 India : Snapshots Population : bn 1.4%) Per Capita Copper Consumption : 0.6 Kgs (growing at 9%). Per Capita Electricity Consumption : 631 Kwh 138 million rural household still without electricity connection. Tele density : Overall - 33 %, Rural : < 12% Penetration of Refrigerators (Households) : < 15% Penetration of AC (Households ) : < 1% 24

25 India : Copper Consumption Growth Drivers A : Power sector : Major growth engine o Power Generation : Existing 141 GW To add further 145 GW by o Power distribution : Inter-regional grid integration : Existing : 8.1 GW To add further 30 GW by 2012 T & D Network further 2.1 Mn CKM : Existing : 5.7 Mn circuit KM To add Growth to range b/w 7 9 % o Rural Electrification : 100% electrification of 138 Mn rural households. 25

26 India : Copper Consumption Growth Drivers B : Infrastructure : o Ports : To add 830 Mn MT capacity by o Airports : Modernisation of 4 Metro and 35 non-metro airports. o Railways : Modernization and redevelopment of 21 railway stations and Route electrification and replacement of Conductor KM. Construction of dedicated Freight rail Corridors 3500 Kms o Roads : Construction of Km rural roads & up-gradation of Km. C. Consumer Goods : > 400 Mn consumers and growing. Projected to touch 800 mn by Young and aspiring population to fuel consumption. 26

27 Indian Copper Consumption Growth: Second only to China 1. More than 9% growth in past 20 years. To grow at 7% - 8% for next 20 years. 2. Copper consumption in India shall surpass Japan by 2012 and Germany by Slated to become world s third largest copper consumer by 2020 after China and USA. 27

28 Sector-wise consumption pattern : Comparison 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% USA Europe Asia India Industrial M/c & Equipments Consumer & General Goods Transport Equipment Building & Construction Electrical & Electronic Goods More aligned to consumption patter in Asia. 28

29 Copper Consumption in India : Total Copper 1200 Total :1100 KT Total: 547 KT 633 KT % % (Proj.) Domestic Smelters Imports Secondary Consumption in India to double in 4 years and cross 1 mn mt mark FISCAL by YEAR 29

30 Demand Growth (Refined) : Projected (KT) Total : 790 KT 2012 (Proj.) Total : 369 KT Transformers Rotating M/c Cables Others Power and Electrical sector constitute major consumption. Fiscal Year 30

31 Refined Copper Consumption Growth FISCAL YEAR 31

32 Growth in copper semis production (Kt Cu) To surpass Japan and Germany and become 3 rd largest consumer. FISCAL YEAR 32

33 Future Growth Drivers : New Applications Existing Emerging Transformers Magnet Wire Wires & Cables Rotating Machines Plumbing Tubing Renewable Energy Outsourcing Hub Auto Harness CTC/ Strips Quality Busbars Further Opportunities Hygienic Surfaces Aquaculture Appliance heat exchange 33

34 Indian Copper Industry : Major Challenges A. Raw material security : Entirely dependent on imported raw material and constraint in world supply shall impact competitiveness. B. Downstream products : Rapid expansion is underway Pace of capacity addition : Entrepreneurship and capital Access to right technology Talent availability to support massive growth Threat of direct imports : Components & assembled products C. Government Spending : Execution risk (delay) in infrastructure and power sector projects despite Govt. s thrust on these sectors. D. FDI : Large portion of projected growth is dependent upon projected FDI inflow coming true. 34

35 In summary India offers one of the best opportunity : o o o o o Fast economic growth massive investment in infrastructure and power sector. Large domestic consumption base consumer base to touch 800mn by Stable polity, strong judicial system and mature regulatory framework. Healthy corporate presence and strong corporate performance. To play key role in emerging global economic order particularly post financial crisis era. Strong growth in copper and copper based industry : o o o Self reliant in refined copper production to remain net exporter in years to come. Rapid expansion in Copper semis capacity - large investment is underway to meet demand in coming years. Domestic consumption of copper in India to surpass Japan by 2012 and Germany by o To become World s third largest copper consumer by

36 Thank You 36