Flood Risk Management and Adaptation Actions for Taipower Transmission System

Transcription

1 Flood Risk Management and Adaptation Actions for Taipower Transmission System WANG, King-Min Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research/Energy and Environmental Research Center The Fifth Congress of the East Asian Association of Environmental and Resource Economics August 5-7, 2015 Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan 1

2 Taipower company risk management framework Communication and coordination Risk assessment Monitoring and review Risk management operating system Risk identification --what? --how, why, where, when? Risk analysis --the current existing options --the occurring probability --the impact severity Risk evaluation Determine risk level and priority Are they high risk level? no yes Risk management --list feasible options --assess the impact and select economic feasible options --plan and implement the options Source: Taipower (2012), Risk Management Scheme 2

3 Adaptation Policy Framework in Taiwan expected benefits? new information? integrate into sustainable development planning? implement adapt measures evaluate performance prioritize & scoring of adapt options construct prioritize criteria and methods 7.Implementation 6.Decision making any preferential options? respond problem correctly? integrate adapt policy into sustainable development planning? 5.Evaluate adapt options 1.Problem clarification 4.List adaptation options literature review of adapt study list adapt options impact of wait & see or do nothing scope review & collection information on vulnerability & adaptation 2. Objective identification 3.Risk evaluation (impacts study) objectives setting decision criteria 3-1 current climate risk evaluatio evaluate climate risk & impacts analyze social/economic status collect past adaptation data vulnerability evaluation 3-2 future climate risk evaluation construct climate change scenarios construct social/economic development scenarios evaluate climate risk encountered (include risk categories and subjects) analyze trends in natural system clarify encountered obstacles 3

4 Scale for Assessing Severity of Consequence Magnitude Fatality & safety Financial loss Energy security Social perception 5 Extreme 4 Major 3 Moderate 2 Minor Multiple fatalities >2 people Single fatality; Multiple Injuries or disability >NT$5B >NT$1B Load shedding; lost load >900MW Load shedding; lost load >500MW Single fatality >NT$0.5B Load shedding; lost load <500MW Serious injury >NT$50M An adverse event that can be absorbed with some management effort Big scale national protests Community protest to the central government Localized protests Localized temporary protests and complaints Reputation/ Political context Negative international media coverage Negative national media coverage with long term impact on public opinion Negative national media coverage Negative regional media coverage 1 Limited Minor injury <NT$50M Impact can be absorbed through normal activity Minor protests and complaints Negative local media coverage Source:Taipower (2013), Risk Management Scheme. 4

5 Result of risk evaluation of climate change impact on Taipower system 100 fatality+financail loss+energy security+social perception+reputation 25 probablity of an event 5 urgency 5 Ranking Major key risk Flood risk from typhoon and heavy downpour on transmission and distribution system Outage risk from heat wave impact on electricity peak demand and power system operation High winds risk from storm/typhoon impact on electricity transmission and distribution system Impact of heavy downpour and extreme typhoon on reservoirs and dams Rocket rise of world fuel price from extreme climate events Flood risk from sea-level rise and tidal wave on electricity infrastructure Risk score Scale of impact Magnitude Likelihood Urgency

6 Annual losses from natural disasters by various categorized hazards Source:Central Weather Bureau (2014), Typhoon Affecting Taiwan: Analysis and Forecast Aids. 6

7 The frequency of typhoon events with rainfall over 1000mm Source:Central Weather Bureau (2014) 7

8 The annual maximum rainfall of typhoon events over period in Taiwan Source:Central Weather Bureau (2014), Taipei, TAIWAN 8

9 Input data set for business as usual scenario (wait and see) frequency 0.64 per year, upper=2 and lower=0 Median of impact severity NT$ 2.9b 95 percentile of impact severity NT$ 7.5b Severity distribution Lognormal Simulation period 50 years Discount rate and economic growth rate 2% 3% respectively 9

10 Assumed input data set for adaptation options for flood risk management Adaptation options Abbreviation Severity reduction (%) Initial investment O&M cost 1.Wait and see, base case scenario; BAU Develop GIS and database for hazard maps and vulnerability assessment; GIS Incorporate climate risk assessment and cost-benefit analyses into electric sector planning and asset design RACBA Monitoring vulnerable generation, transmission and distribution assets and designing hardening measures MHGTD Review and upgrade design codes and standards for assets and infrastructure for climate resilience C&S Flood sectionalizing and adaptive dispatch in response to flooding FLSEC Harden existing infrastructure against flooding and water infiltration, such as levees, sandbags, water pumps, water gates, floodwalls, etc. HDINFR Develop and enhance early warning system and awareness-raising EWS Develop and practice contingency and restoration plans CRP Selective developing smart grid technology SGRID Invest and enhance ancillary services including demand side management, operating reserve, regulation, blackstart and voltage ANCIL support, etc. 12.Develop flood protection measures and improve downpour management with other sectors and community FLPM

11 Simulated loss distribution with respect to different flood adaptation options adopted by Taipower 11

12 Simulated cumulative loss with respect to different flood adaptation options adopted by Taipower 12

13 Simulated cost and benefits with respect to different flood adaptation options adopted by Taipower 13

14 Mainstreaming Adaptation Policy Sustainable development policy Fill the gap Adapatation Risk management Sustainable actions Adjust the content Monitoring review and evaluation 2015/5/28 14

15 Mainstreaming Flood Adaptation Construct hazard maps to identify, and circumvent high vulnerability areas in the electricity system by planning reinforcement or relocation of a new facility; Closely monitor high vulnerable T & D assets, and implement preventive and reinforcement measures (e.g. reinforce grid tower pillars and protect slopes); Construct and harden infrastructure against flooding, such as coastal barriers, dams, dikes, water gates, pumps, sandbags and walls; Strengthen and improve early landslide warning systems, enhance disaster risk awareness and improve weather warning systems; Selectively develop a smart grid system; Invest in distributed generation, such as a micro-grid system, PV, combined heat and power (CHP), electric vehicle (EV), fuel cells and small wind turbines; Speed up service restoration via pre-connections for mobile substations; Improve backup generation for major critical customers. 15

16 Limitations & Future Research The better holistic economic method to derive adaptation options is of recursive and adaptive nature and including stochastic factors. Current stochastic costs and benefits calculation is of static in nature and neglect the imputed value of the state of the electric system which will be affected by the adaptation options adopted in each year. The future study of the economics of adaptation will focus on the adaptive and dynamic nature of the systems and its related risk management decision making. In severity modelling Bayesian estimation was not adopted due to lack of observable data of damages. 16

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